Rick’s Picks

Stocks dove on the latest non-news from the Fed. The headless-chicken response to routine announcements from the central bank is evidently so deeply ingrained that even when Powell has nothing new to say, the trade-desk geniuses can't help tripping over themselves trying to get out of their own way. The Fed chairman said monetary policy, such as it is, will hold steady for the time being, since inflation is low and the economy appears to be slowing slightly.  This revelation not only caused stocks to plunge, it also aborted a rally in gold that, gold being gold, was probably doomed anyway. Look for cooler heads to prevail on Thursday, after the usual gallimaufry of jackasses have gotten a grip on themselves.

Google has joined my list of 'dead stocks walking' -- companies facing revenue slowdowns for one reason or another but which have inexplicably rallied steeply in recent months.  The shares of Apple and Facebook are brazen standouts in this category for reasons that are well known and which I have written about extensively. There is also Boeing, whose price has steadied well aloft despite the widening scandal related to two fatal crashes of the 737 Max. None of this precludes my forecasting higher prices based on the stocks' respective charts, but it does imply there will be a day of reckoning. Please note that my technical outlook allows nonetheless for a further 1400-point rise in the Dow before this happens, an eventuality that would demonstrate once again the bull market's determination to remain blithely untethered from economic reality.

Surprise, surprise. AAPL has miraculously popped to 213.00 this evening, exceeding by 13 cents a 212.77 target first noted here weeks ago. This Hidden Pivot has been in play since April 1, when the stock was trading for around 190. Like virtually all significant rallies in the stock, and in most others, the move was driven almost entirely by short covering on volume-less, after-hours trading. Panicky, dim-witted bears are the best thing AAPL's institutional handlers have going for them, accomplishing in mere minutes what mere bullish buying could not have accomplished in months. The wilding spree of the last seven weeks has also helped to obliterate any concerns about iPhone's pronounced sales slowdown in the U.S. and in China, Apple's second largest market. Nor do investors seem concerned that the company's answer to weakening sales is to plunge deeper into the hyper-competitive entertainment world with streaming content. Profit margins from this business are unlikely to equal those achieved selling overpriced iPhones -- but again, who cares? We'll back away from the stock for now, since the put options we might have bought if the stock had reached the target during regular business hours won't begin to trade until morning, when the surprise has worn off. _______ UPDATE (May 1, 9:40 p.m.): Today's thrust above an 'external peak at 210 recorded last November has created yet another impulse leg, refreshing the bullish energy of the daily chart. This implies that any pullback of less than $25 should be seen as corrective and thus a buying opportunity for a shot at new record highs. _______UPDATE (May 8, 8:49 p.m.): AAPL looks bound for 197.12, a target shown in this chart. It is appealing despite the lack of a true impulse leg. Please note that a print slightly below the target, at 196.20,

Google was down a hellacious 112 points, or 9%, at Tuesday's low, but the plunge did little damage to the bullish look of the weekly chart (click on inset).  The fact that this occurred after the stock had pushed above last July's record high makes the selloff merely corrective rather than impulsive. It was attributable to a dour earnings report which suggested Google is losing ground in advertising to Amazon and Facebook. From the look of the chart, however, it seems predictable that the company will find a way to cope and get back in the race. Another thing to be inferred from the stock's steep dive is that it was engineered by the same institutional wiseguys who have been buying it all along. They've created for themselves a fire-sale opportunity, and we should therefore look for GOOG to stabilize, presumably at somewhat lower levels, before the accumulation cycle begins anew.  Alternatively, the stock would need to fall a further 290 points (!), or 25%, exceeding the 894 'external' low recorded last June, to turn the weekly chart bearish.  This seems unlikely, even after today's heavy losses. _______ UPDATE (May 8, 8:58 p.m. ET): With GOOG struggling for altitude, I'll note that any slippage could send the stock down to at least 1123.71, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in this chart. It is associated with a 'D' target at 1056.68. _______ UPDATE (May 13, 2:33 p.m.): The stock has bounced $12 so far after bottoming at 1122.11, an inch below my minimum downside target. If a relapse crushes the target, that would imply more slippage to as low as D=1056.68._______ UPDATE (May 16, 4:14 p.m.): Bears have gotten squeezed hard for two straight days, but the pressure appears to have eased slightly with a close in the middle of

Investors (click on inset) could be pardoned for wondering why IPO underwriters for Lyft and Uber have used accounting trickery that smells worse than ten-day-old fish in order to promote the deals. Is bogus too strong a word? Judge for yourself. In their prospectuses, neither firm subtracted promotional incentives and refunds from sales totals, as is customary. This allowed them to grossly overstate revenues and profits. In Lyft's case, revenues would have been 16% lower than the $2.16 billion reported and Uber's would have been 12% lower than the $11.27 billion reported. These numbers were aired in a Wall Street Journal op-ed piece Monday by Howard Schilit, co-author of Financial Shenanigans. Passengers Don't Count What adds to the stench is that in order to use these accounting gimmicks, the ride-hailing companies had to categorize their drivers as customers. Passengers seem not to matter: "Because end-users access our platform for free and we have no performance obligation to [them], [they] are not our customers," Uber's SEC disclosure filing notes without a trace of irony.  This doublespeak would be laugh-aloud-funny if not for fact that similar chicanery is undoubtedly a key ingredient in keeping the ten-year-old bull market going. Schilit exposes the accounting ruse for exactly what it is by asking this question: Who would Uber/Lyft consider the customer in a self-driving car? It's a question that most of the bozos clamoring for Lyft shares, and Uber's when it goes public, are evidently not taking too seriously.

The Indoos tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal last week that I neglected to mention. We can use it nonetheless to inform a bullish bias in the weeks ahead, as the blue chip average makes its way toward the 27,125 target.  If you did the trade on your own, you should have taken a partial profit Monday on half the position at p=26,594. A further 25% should be taken off at p2=26,860, and thence 27,125 for the remainder.  The corresponding HP levels for DIA lie, respectively, at x=263.27, p=265.96, p2=268.63, and D=271.32. _______ UPDATE (May 7, 10:07 p.m. ET): The upturn at day's end has continued into the evening, but the salvage attempt appears doomed because the intraday low breached a clear Hidden Pivot. This has negated the 27,125 target given above, but a rally touching 26107 would generate a new one at 27060. _______ UPDATE (May 8, 9:01 p.m.): Today's rally slightly exceeded  26,107, generating a new bullish target, but the move was too feeble to be even the least bit impressive. Get ready for a relapse.

The 212.77 rally target shown in today's chart should be familiar, since it has been in play for nearly a month. AAPL's ascent has been too steep to trip any 'mechanical' buy signals, but if it should pull back to p=198.68, we'll consider putting an 'old-style' bid there, stop 193.98.  Stay tuned to the trading room for guidance in real time if the stock gets close to the fed line intraday. Regardless of whether there's a pullback, we'll want to stake out a spec short position if and when D is hit.

The 3095 rally target I've projected for the S&P 500 cash index (see below) lies well above current levels. Bulls have had little trouble reaching middling Hidden Pivot targets in the past, but this one will require some effort, since the pattern that produced stretches all the way back to January. It also has unusual clarity, closely resembling a Dow pattern from the early 2000s that correctly predicted a major bull move. The Dow would be trading for around 28,000 if the S&Ps get there. Bears should have no illusions in the meantime that any negative economic news that comes out in the weeks and months ahead will negatively impact the picture. It is not chiseled in stone, but it should be regarded as a high-confidence forecast.

There were too many possible targets in my earlier tout, so I've scrapped them all to focus on just one for now: 1298.59.  This Hidden Pivot could be achieved as early as Monday, but let's make sure the stock gets there before we consider the 1334.30 target I'd said earlier looked like such a good bet. A pullback to the red line should be regarded as an opportunity to get long via a 'mechanical' bid, stop 1205.77. ______ UPDATE (Apr 29, 10:35 p.m.): If you've made a few bucks on the way to the target, treat yourself to a few expiring puts when GOOG gets there.  The 1200s will probably be the highest strike you can buy for less than $1.00. This is pure speculation, so be prepared to kiss some of your hard-earned gains goodbye.