Rick’s Picks

Although I've been dissing Apple every chance I get, there's no doubting the bullishness of the stock's push past the 197.18 peak shown in the chart. It is what I call a look-to-the-left peak, and although it is small and visually obscure, it has the same weight as bigger peaks for purposes of determining trend strength. If bulls seize the advantage, the stock could conceivably go as high as 212.77. That Hidden Pivot would become an odds-on bet to be reached if the rally were to decisively exceed p=198.68. That number is not yet in play, but it would be in theory if x=191.63 is tagged. Here's a chart that shows the new HP levels. (Note: Despite the foregoing, we have taken a small bearish position using put options. I do not plant to share the details publicly, but they are available via the Trading Room log.) _______ UPDATE (April 1, 10:07 p.m. ET): With this morning's print just above 191.63, AAPL has put p2=198.68 in play as a minimum upside objective._______ UPDATE (April 5): Just inches to go. As noted above, if 198.68 is decisively exceeded, that would put 212.70 in play as a target, with crucial resistance at 205.72, the secondary pivot. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8): What a rally -- a veritable distributionpalooza!  AAPL shredded the 198.68 midpoint pivot so easily today that there can be little doubt about whether it will achieve 212.77.  First, though, is p2=205.72, a secondary Hidden Pivot that is my minimum upside projection for the near term. Here's the chart.

Although the shady business practices of Facebook and its founder have been attracting a barrage of bad press, the guys paid to keep the stock pumped have held it aloft for months. Its failure to fill a dramatic short-squeeze gap created on January 31 attests to the power these operators have to spin the news so that shorts are always on the defensive.  FB has been in a holding pattern for two months, opportunistically awaiting the mildly 'good' news that would ram it up shorts' wazoo. If it doesn't come soon, though, DaBoyz may have to bring the stock down into the gap, since accumulation at current levels is growing increasingly expensive. In any case, no matter how we might view Zuckerberg and his methods, a thrust exceeding the 174.64 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown (inset; our minimum target for now) would put a target as high as 190.00 in play. _______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 4:02 p.m. ET): After taking a powerful, 3.30% leap today, FB stalled almost precisely at the 174.64 pivot before peaking at 174.90. Let's stipulate that the stock close for two consecutive days above this number before inferring that a finishing stroke to 190.00 is a done deal.

We've been using a rally target at 1842 for quite some time, but with this update I am going to shift our sights higher, to 1912.86. This Hidden Pivot resistance looks like a good bet to be achieved, possibly within the next 7-10 days, because of the way buyers shredded the 1739 midpoint pivot.  Although a pullback from p2 (1826 here) can often be fatal, my hunch is that it won't be this time, since price action over the last two weeks looks accumulative rather than distributive. _______ UPDATE (Apr 23, 11:55 a.m.): Assuming the stock can get past 1923.57, a secondary Hidden Pivot shown in this chart, we should used D=1982.86 now as a minimum upside objective for the near term. _______ UPDATE (Apr 29, 11:03 p.m.): The 1982.86 target is sufficiently compelling that you should consider buying some near-term, out-of-the money puts when the stock gets there. This recommendation is for subscribers who have held a long position for at least a portion of the move up, which has been in increments that matched bullish targets provided here over the last seven weeks. _______ UPDATE (May 8, 9:05 p.m.): Buyers appear winded, so expect them to take this behemoth lower before they make yet another attempt to reach 1982.86.  A fall to 1845.63 would generate the first bearish impulse leg we've seen on the daily chart since December.

Having narrowly missed a longstanding downside target at 251.28 at the low of its most recent swoon, TSLA would trip a 'counterintuitive' buy signal if it hits the green line at 286.19. That would make p=317.91 our minimum upside target, with a shot at 381.36 if Tesla's peerless hype machine turns news temporarily in the firm's favor. Not bad for a company with enough problems to make a bankruptcy scenario seem at least plausible. Whatever the case against Tesla, its compromised delivery system and its apparent decline in quality control, these factors could soon take a back seat to the shenanigans and spin control that have always moved the stock, often wildly. _____ UPDATE (Apr 2, 4:10 p.m.): The stock has touched 286.19, putting a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 317.91 in play as a minimum upside target.  It would become an odds-on bet to be reached if TSLA can exceed a 295.39 'external' peak recorded on March 14. _______ UPDATE (APR 4, 11:07 a.m.): Today's plunge on news that Q1 deliveries of Model 3 fell well shy of expectations has hit $260, a $61 loss. The bullish 'CI' trade noted above, however, with a minimum target of 317.91, will remain in effect until such time as 254.46 is exceeded to the downside. This will be a good test of whether the sleazebags who manipulate this stock for a living are clever enough and strong enough to turn this morning's air pocket into an accumulation opportunity. In the meantime, we should presume that the stock's low near $260 occurred simply because the aforementioned sleazebags felt quite comfortable buying there.

The 2866.25 target where the futures topped recently has the potential to be a show-stopper for reasons noted here earlier, including the perhaps too-obvious enticement of the powerful impulse leg it created. But because this bull market has been chugging along for ten years, defying expectations, we should be prepared for the next record-breaking upthrust. In that regard, a decisive thrust exceeding the 2859.25 midpoint pivot shown would have very bullish implications, since it would put the pattern's 2929.00 target theoretically in play. We'll watch cautiously from the sidelines in the meantime, trading this vehicle with a mildly bullish bias until such time as p is reached.______ UPDATE (April 1, 10:14 p.m. ET): Buyers easily exceeded p, putting p2=2894.13 in play as our minimum upside objective for the near term.

A strong week culminated Friday with a nasty short squeeze that brought the stock close to tripping a second 'mechanical' short at 385.60. In this case, I would recommend against trading the signal aggressively, since BA is throbbing with menace. It has held its ground against a barrage of negative news, including a second fatal crash of the 737 Max and some order cancellations that at some point could conceivably include a very big customer, China.  DaBoyz have taken a huge stake in this company, mainly because its stream of earnings going out many years is more or less knowable and reliable. They will do whatever it takes to keep the shares aloft, whether to distribute them or accumulate. We can look at bearish option spreads if and when 385.60 is touched, but whatever we do, a cautious approach is warranted. ______ UPDATE (April 1, 10:18 p.m.): There is little point in trying to impede this take-no-prisoners rally. You can confidently use 407.70 as a minimum upside target for the near term. It is the midpoint pivot, on the 60-minte chart, where A= 353.67 on 1/23.

With central banks around the world ready to hit the panic button, investors are scrambling desperately for yield ahead of the next orgy of global easing. How desperate are they? So desperate, in fact, that even some of the bond world's smelliest garbage -- i.e., debt paper issued by Illinois and the city of Chicago -- is attracting sufficient buying interest to lift bond prices and push down yields.  A dearth of supply has caused investors to get a little crazy, according to Justin Land, chief municipal strategist at Wasmer, Schroeder & Co. "The muni market is not showing a lot of discipline in pricing," he said, euphemistically, "because there's so much money chasing so few bonds." Would you plunge head-first into this financial landfill just because everyone else is doing it? Land's firm evidently has no qualms despite the fact that Illinois paper carries the lowest rating of any state, and Chicago is not far behind. Both consistently spend more than they take in, and neither has a clue about how to turn things around. Not Just Illinois Like most of the money being borrowed by state and local governments these days, whatever Illinois raises will go mainly into distressed pension plans. Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel took another route in his last fiscal act as mayor, however, foregoing a $10 billion bond that had been earmarked for pensions. This task will fall to his successor, who could conceivably have the distinction of presiding over the bankruptcy of America's third-largest city. If investors clamoring for Illinois debt just to eke out a few extra basis points know better, they certainly are not acting like it. Their heedless behavior is not confined to Illinois either; it is happening all over the country, pushing muni bond funds higher (click on inset to

Every uptick in AAPL only makes the stock a juicier short because iPhone, the main source of the Cupertino company’s revenues, has significant problems. Sales have softened in the U.S. and China, Apple's second-largest market, and the firm faces increasing competition from the likes of Huawei, which can undersell the top-of-the-line iPhone by more than 30%. Add to the list of negatives the implications of a story played prominently in Tuesday’s edition of The Wall Street Journal: ‘Apple Extends Push Into New Territory’.  It turns out that the ‘new territory' includes some of the most competitive businesses of the digital age: entertainment, financial services, news and video games.  From a standing start, is it possible for Apple to go head to head in showbiz against such established players as Netflix, Disney, Amazon, HBO et al. and expect to carve out a commanding share? It would take nothing less than that to produce the kind of margins the company has enjoyed selling overpriced hardware. Apple may have inadvertently highlighted the weakness of its johnny-come-lately move into ‘original programming’ by featuring Oprah Winfrey at a recent event to announce their strategic shift. There is already such a glut of excellent shows offered via subscription across various video devices, including television, that it’s hard to imagine Apple getting a leg up on the competition. Even the early winners are certain to face problems because they’ve bid up the price of Hollywood talent into the ionosphere. To give you some idea, Netflix paid comedian Chris Rock $40 million to do two 60-minute specials. The company’s bean counters may think they’ve figured out a way to make money on this bet, but it still seems like an extravagant gamble. Apple’s PR Machine For now, Apple’s capable PR machine has given the stock an undeserved boost

Bulls got suckered badly by Tuesday's exuberant opening, enticed by gap-up rallies in AMZN, AAPL, GOOG, BA and some other high-profile stocks. Sell-offs ensued in all of them, and their ratcheting descent persisted until the closing bell. The smell of distribution is so strong here that we'll have to guard against bears getting suckered themselves. However, they seemed to be keeping their cool shortly before midnight Tuesday, holding DaBoyz to very modest gains in after-hours trading. If that's the best the manipulators can do ahead of Wednesday's opening, stocks will probably fall hard in the opening hour.