Rick’s Picks

AMZN has taken a tentative bounce from a secondary pivot at 1545.16. This is a logical place for a reversal to occur if the bounce is going to get legs. However, for bulls to nail it they would need to push the stock a further $80, exceeding the external peak at 1673.00 shown in the chart. That would put 1696.51 in play as a minimum upside objective, with potential for a run-up to as high as 1846.51. Alternatively, a relapse exceeding 1545.16 would put in play the 1465.55 target shown. _______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 9:05 a.m.): The stock has gotten schmeissed overnight and should now be assumed headed down to at least 1415.36. That's the last logical short-term target available on the hourly chart, derived from sliding the point 'A' high up to Oct 17's 1845.00. Please note that an alternative low at 1400.67 is possible if I use the 1859.69 'A' created overnight on 10/17. One  target or the other, precisely, is extremely likely to produce a tradeable bounce. ________ UPDATE (Nov 20, 9:56 p.m.): A spectacular, 92-point plunge brought the stock down to within less than $5 of the 1415.36 target I'd sent out the night before. It remains viable in theory, but bulls appeared to be gearing for a rebound to at least 1544.07. If they can get decisively past that midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, they'll have a shot at 1601.44._______ UPDATE (Nov 25, 5:07 p.m.): The sleazeballs who manipulate this stock for a living would love to run it up bears' old wazoo, but it won't be possible as long as AAPL continues to fall. Accordingly, you should use the 1456.04 midpoint support shown here as a minimum downside objective for the near term. It looks like it'll be a great spot to try tightly stopped

Bears were on the ropes when last week ended, with stocks gaining buoyancy from Trump’s optimistic remarks concerning China. Assuming no news comes out over the weekend to queer Wall Street’s good mood, expect the futures to easily hit the 2754.00 target shown (see inset).  Just a slight overshoot would surpass an important ‘external’ peak at 2755.75 recorded October 13 on the way down. That would refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the hourly chart, setting the tone for the near term.

AAPL remains the stock that matters most, so bulls shouldn't get their hope too high that the carnage is over. I still have an outstanding target down at 170.78, implying the iPhone-maker's shares will fall a further $6, or 3.4%, before bulls can turn the stock around.  Seasonality and a dearth of sellers will weigh heavily in their favor when stocks resume trading on Friday, but any short squeeze that falls shy of 187.10, a benchmark equal to a minor external peak  recorded Monday on the way down, should be regarded as mere noise.

Tuesday's brutal slide left some key targets unfulfilled -- most notably in AAPL (see inset) and the E-Mini S&Ps. The targets are not far beneath the intraday lows, so we might look for a significant reversal if stocks open Wednesday morning on merely moderate weakness. Seasonality is strongly bullish, and DaBoyz are unlikely in any event to leave much unfinished business -- i.e., heavy dumping -- for a Friday when trade desks will be deserted. Rick's Picks will be providing only limited coverage itself, so the next updates will be Sunday evening. Let me take this opportunity to wish you all a happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy the holiday!

Although the futures have been falling hard, the weakness has been punctuated by upward spasms that have made staying short practically impossible. The bearish, 2624.75 target shown, which lies about 70 points below, looks like a good bet to be achieved over the next day or two. But I am not suggesting a mechanical short on a rally to the green line because of the choppy price action of the A-B leg. More appealing would be a 'counterintuitive' buying set-up from near the 2603.00 low that occurred on October 29. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care.______ UPDATE (Nov 20, 9:35 p.m.): The low of today's 60-point plunge brought the futures to within seven points of the 2624.75 Hidden Pivot target proffered above. It remains viable, but if buyers can push this brick above 2683.50 intraday, that would raise the odds we've seen an important turn. Here's the chart.

I'll continue to train a spotlight on AAPL because it is the stock that matters most. If it is falling, the broad averages will be weak; and if it is rising, stocks will be held buoyant. On Monday, it almost looked as though the two were headed in opposite directions. At the opening bell, AAPL gapped $3.50 beneath Friday's final sale and couldn't sustain even a small bounce.  But even as it was getting pounded, the Dow rallied from down 100 points to within 22 points of unchanged. It didn't take long for the Indoos to get in bearish gear, however, and they fell for the rest of the day, more or less synchronized to AAPL's small ups and and large downs. I expect AAPL to go even lower in the days ahead. Most immediately, there's a target that lies $3.00 beneath Monday's 185.85 close. But if that Hidden Pivot support is decisively breached it will open a path down to as low as 170.78 over the near term. All eyes will be on the stock whatever it does, but keep my targets in mind if you want a more accurate sense of where the turns are most likely to occur.

Elsewhere on the home page, I've made much of the fact that the Dow Industrials mechanically tripped a 'buy' signal last week. This seems incredible, given the blowback U.S. stocks are getting from a weakening global economy and a domestic downturn that threatens to turn boom to bust in housing and autos. Putting all that aside and focusing simply on the visual picture shown in the chart -- the most recent phase of the long bull market -- what do you see?  Personally, I have little difficulty extending an imaginary rally to the 26,996 target. Harder to envision -- and this is speaking from a purely instinctual point of view rather than a technical one -- would be a serious slide down to 23,000 and beyond. I'll remain open to any and all possibilities nonetheless, relying solely on impulse legs to instruct me concerning the mood of investors, and of America.

The Dow Industrials tripped a 'mechanical' buy signal with last week's dip to the green line (see inset). The bullish Hidden Pivot pattern is not perfect for proprietary reasons that I won't go into here, but suffice it to say, if this were the five-minute chart of some garden-variety stock, there would have been little reason to fear loading up the truck when the Indoos bottomed last Thursday. Yes, it's difficult to be so blandly objective about the chart shown, because it is not some rinky-dink stock we are looking at; rather, it is a momentous chart whose ups and downs could foreshadow the health of the global economy over the next five years. What's Wrong with This Picture? There are caveats, to be sure. Using the same fearless rules that govern the charts of stocks we don't much care about, key resistance lies at the red line, 25559. But once decisively above it, at around 26,000, the blue chip average would become an even-odds bet to test the all-time high. There are a half-dozen powerful reasons why this 'shouldn't' happen, including the nascent collapse of two key U.S. economic sectors: housing and autos. There's also a growing likelihood that China's economic downturn and a slowdown in Germany are about to spread to the rest of the world. A tariff deal with China would almost certainly reverse the bearish tide in stocks, at least for a while. But if there is no deal, it's hard to imagine Wall Street summoning the energy for a last hurrah, let alone a sustained move into the ionosphere.

Bears were on the ropes when last week ended, with stocks gaining buoyancy from Trump's optimistic remarks concerning China. Assuming no news comes out over the weekend to queer Wall Street's good mood, expect the futures to easily hit the 2754.00 target shown (see inset).  Just a slight overshoot would surpass an important 'external' peak at 2755.75 recorded October 13 on the way down. That would refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the hourly chart, setting the tone for the near term. ______ UPDATE (Nov 19, 2:45 p.m.): So every rally is distributive, it would appear. And however bullish/bearish things feel at the closing bell, do the opposite.