Rick’s Picks

The futures were bound for the 2711.00 Hidden Pivot target shown (see inset) when the regular session ended. Upside penetration of the 2683 midpoint resistance was sufficient to imply that a continuation of the rally to at least D=2711.00 is a good bet. Accordingly, I will specifically recommend a 'mechanical' bid on a pullback to the green line (2669.19), provided the retracement comes from 2691.00 or lower. A stop-loss at 2655.25 would obtain.  As always, if buyers push easily past the target, that would signal still higher prices to come -- presumably a test of recent peaks near 2750._______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 2:31 p.m.): The futures blasted off without coming down to our niggardly bid. They are headed for a test of some peaks near 2749 that were recorded from Nov 14-19.______UPDATE (Nov 29, 9:45 p.m.): Buyers easily exceeded all but one of the peaks noted above, implying they will return to finish the job on Friday. Use 2784.00 for a minimum target, and consider it a done deal once p=2753.63 has been surpassed (30-minute, A= 2684.25 on 11/28). _______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 10:09 p.m.): There's trendline resistance at 2814.75 (click here to see it), but also a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 2813.00 (60-min, A= 2655.25 on 11/27), implying this powerful rally will face daunting resistance in that range. If buyers can push past it, or better yet close above 2815, that would have bullish implications going forward. The next target above is at 2841.00 (60-min, A=2603.00 on 10/29)._______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 10:14 p.m.): Today's powerful rally stopped exactly where expected, at 2814.00.  The futures have since fallen 40 points to fill the gap from Friday, allowing shorts to cover for as much as a $2000 profit per contract. Our focus will now shift to 2841.00 as the target

AMZN's 1420.00 low last week came within a hair of a 1415.36 target that had been nearly six weeks in coming. That suggests that the bounce, assuming it is just a correction, could take at least 2-3 weeks to play out. We shall see. In the meantime, the rally has exhausted all legitimate targets on the hourly chart and will need to surpass another external peak to generate a fresh impulse leg. The nearest lies at 1624.82 and should pose no problem, given the viciousness of Monday's short-squeeze opening bar. AMZN is nearly as important a stock-market bellwether as AAPL, and the two must move in tandem if they are to summon the animal spirits necessary to keep the broad averages climbing a formidable wall of worry. It now includes fading housing and auto sectors, a serious downturn in the economies of China and Germany, and a possible peak in corporate earnings._______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 6:08 p.m. ET): There's no point in pussyfooting, so I've chosen a very gnarly but nonetheless plausible pattern that yields the most ambitious rally target possible on the lesser charts: 1775.07. A stall at p=1688.15 would confirm it.  Here's the picture.   _______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 9:50 p.m.): Amazon retreated $15 after exceeding our 1688.15 benchmark by a whisker. My outlook remains unchanged._______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 6:30 p.m.): The 1775.07 rally target remains valid, but we can break the move into smaller, more easily tradable segments by focusing on the lesser target at 1733.31 shown here. A decisive push past p=1693.20 would all but clinch it, and a pullback from our 'sweet spot' could set up a 'mechanical' buy. Tune to the chat room for real-time guidance._______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 10:35): When I proffered the 1775.07 target, I  considered it very ambitious, but I never imagined that

Buyers turned chicken late in the session, relapsing 15 points instead of taking on the 2683.50 'external' peak shown. They'll get another crack at it on Tuesday, but if they need more time, we should look less seriously on the effort.  Keep in mind there's an unfulfilled downside target at 2474.75 that goes back to a cycle begun from 2944.75 on October 3.  The midpoint pivot lies at 2646.63, a number that has been central to the E-Mini's oscillations over the last week or so. But if Friday's 2626.00 low gives way, that would imply more slippage to as low as 2560.19, the pattern's secondary pivot. Here's the chart, which also references an interim target at 2595.25.

I advised subscribers who got long in AAPL Monday to take partial profits on the $4 rally that ensued, since the stock could turn unfriendly with no warning and for no apparent reason. Although my latest update for the iPhone maker's shares raises the possibility the rally is just getting started, we shouldn't rule out the equally plausible scenario that the stock is about to get hammered anew. DaBoyz have pulled their bids in after-hours trading, causing AAPL to surrender nearly the entire day's gains in the space of a few minutes. This feels to me likely a sleazy ploy to shake loose some shares before running them up again. But we should always book at least some of our gains reflexively no matter what we expect, since a buy-and-hold approach will necessarily be fraught with thrills, chills and spills that will play on our fears and doubts.

AAPL has trampolined $4, or 2.4%, after bottoming an inch from the 170.78 'Hidden Pivot' target I'd been drum-rolling here for the last week. The stock was trading near $190 at the time the target was first disseminated. Friday's low got close, hitting 171.85. But even when the stock opened higher on Monday, touching 175,  I repeated a warning that AAPL would still have to fall to 170.78 before it could turn around. This it did -- coincidentally during an online 'requests' session I was conducting for subscribers. Some of them were able to buy stock or call options and to book substantial profits later in the session as the stock shot higher with barely a correction. A Santa Dead-Cat Bounce? The turnaround could prove significant for the stock market as a whole, since, if AAPL has made a bottom of at least temporary importance, so have the broad averages. The stock's rally is still fragile, to be sure, but if were to continue for a few more days, exceeding a 181.47 peak recorded a week ago on the way down, we could confidently infer that the move is likely to get legs.  Even so, I would regard it as corrective and therefore unlikely to achieve new record highs. At best, it might energize buyers sufficiently to keep stocks buoyant for the rest of the year. I will remain open-minded to other possibilities nonetheless, even if the increasingly worrisome downturn in housing and autos is already ample reason for bulls to do a whole lot more correcting before they resume their wilding spree of the last nine years. AAPL will remain the best stock to follow for hints about what is coming, since the company is the most valuable in the world, and because its share are owned by nearly

The World's Most Valuable Company (TWMVC) got the stuffing knocked out of it again on Monday and there may be more.  Which is to say, things are likely to get worse before they get better. For now, use the 182.88 target shown as a minimum downside objective. Please note, however, that if that Hidden Pivot support gets crushed, or the stock closes for two consecutive days beneath it, that would augur a bloodbath to as low as 170.78 over the near term. At that point TWMVC will have given up a little more than 28% of its value since October 3, when shares peaked at a record $233. Under $100 Eventually? Isn't it remarkable how quickly the first phase of a bear market can unfold? Looking well ahead, it could take six to twelve months or longer for the stock to grind out an additional 25% loss. But don't be surprised if the final capitulation takes AAPL well below $100. The company will be far more vulnerable than most retailers in an economic downturn because its main product, the iPhone, is so pricey. If strapped customers should need to delay a trade-in for an additional 2-3 years, they will, no matter what kind of "new-and-improved" hubris accompanies future product launches. One more caveat -- for bears: Every portfolio manager on Earth owns this stock, and they are not about to go quietly into the night. It is therefore 100% predictable that the short-covering rallies will be spectacular, buttressed by planted news stories explaining why the stock is such a great bet to achieve new record highs. Don't believe them. But neither should you stand too stubbornly in the way when AAPL test bears' resolve._______ UPDATE (Nov 20, 9:42 p.m.): The stock began the day with a 10-point plunge to 175.51,

A 2624.75 target has kept us confidently on the right side of the trend as the futures have continued to fall. But now what? They got within 1.25 points of our price objective on Friday when shares fell moderately to end a holiday-shortened week. I have typically suggested bottom-fishing in such circumstances, any you can certainly do so here with a stop loss as tight as 2623.75 if Sunday night's opening is sluggish. However, let's also allow for a continuation of the bloodbath, using the 2613.13 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart as a minimum downside objective.  As always, a decisive penetration on first contact would imply more slippage to the associative 'D' target -- in this case 2555.00._______ UPDATE (Nov 26, 8:26 a.m. ET): The futures have taken a big bounce from within a millimeter of the 2624.75 target. The rally is moderately impulsive on the hourly chart but would become more so on a print exceeding 2671.25. If you got long at the bottom please let me know in the chat room so that I can determine whether to establish a tracking position.

Gold fell a further $13 on Friday, pausing just a few ticks above the 1206.70 target I'd sent out the night before. I say that the futures have merely paused because the void beneath that low looks like it wants to be filled. That would imply renewed weakness in the days or perhaps weeks ahead to at least 1190.50, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart. Notice that the worst case over the next several weeks would be 1134.90, a crystal-clear target that lies 6% below. A decline of that magnitude would be discouraging, but it would still be a far cry from the sub-$1000 prices that some bullion bears have long predicted. A half-hearted sell-off would reflect the reality that weakness since 2011, when gold's price hit a record high $1911, has been merely corrective of a long-term bull market begun in 2008 from $680. Sellers Unable to Deliver a Coup de Grace As persistent and vexatious as sellers have been since 2011, they have lacked the power to deliver a coup de grace. While it's conceivable that gold could eventually fall below $1000, there are no strong indications on the long-term chart that this is likely.  Indeed, price action since early 2016 has been bullish and could support a push to as high as 1452.60. This would be in the context of a decade-long bull market that could ultimately reach 2278.20. Click here to see the picture. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 9:34 p.m.): A sharp push past 1225.40 would re-energize bulls for a possible shot at 1254.10. Here's the chart.  _______UPDATE (Nov 15, 7:30 p.m.): This pattern looks extremely likely to work, meaning that a decisive stab past p=1216.30 will put December Gold on course for a run-up to exactly 1225.50. If so, that would set

Crude's price fluctuations are a circus act that I've watched with diminishing interest over the years. It's easy enough to predict short-term swings with sufficient accuracy to make money at it, as Rick's Picks subscribers who traded NYMEX futures and energy ETFs yesterday would be happy to attest. But paying diligent attention to the constant barrage of supply-and-demand spin that drives the big moves could make a guru's head spin. On some days, the Saudi princes seem out-of-sync with their own PR flacks, promising plenty of oil when their gallimaufry of useful idiots are spreading a 'tightening' story like some strain of flu. The China Factor I've added this oil tout to today's list nonetheless because I was curious about where prices might actually be headed. Clearly, not to the 2.06 target shown in the chart. But it's still a good number to use to get the trend right, suggesting as it does that prices will continue to be pulled sharply lower by global forces that are only now becoming recognized. Near the top of the list would be the threat of a global slowdown. It has gotten a good start from China, whose already-serious recession has become an important factor in crude's dive since early October. Prices peaked around $77 a barrel, but they were at $55.40 when the regular session ended on Tuesday. This equates to a decline of 28%. We shouldn't be surprised to see quotes go even lower in the weeks and months ahead, possibly to the $30.25 'secondary Hidden Pivot' shown in the chart. If that were to occur we could conceivably witness that rarest of miracles -- i.e., lower prices at the pump. But I wouldn't hold my breath.  We should also allow for the remote possibility that forces unknown -- war in the