E-Mini S&P

Today's rally topped to-the-tick at the 2149.25 target I had drum-rolled earlier, when the futures were trading 20 points lower. I have not established a tracking position, however -- at least not yet -- since there have been no reports in the chat room from subscribers who were either long on the way up, or who got short at the top. Since we don't pretend to have a crystal ball, there is no way of knowing for certain whether the top will endure for a few more hours, or for perhaps weeks, months or even years. We do know, however, that if the futures should push above 2149.25, especially if they do so as soon as tomorrow, they should be presumed headed to at least 2194.00, the next Hidden Pivot resistance in a sequence of rally targets presented here earlier. For the record, the uppermost lies at 2313.50, a major Hidden Pivot that would be a logical place for the bull market to end. More immediately, however, there's potential profit of as much as $2200 per contract for anyone long for the ride to 2194.00, as well as a the possibility of an opportune short from the target itself.  We have a half-dozen ways to get aboard, most of them designed to do so with as little entry risk as possible, so stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time if you trade this vehicle. _______ UPDATE (July 13, 8:45  p.m. EDT): The 2194.00 target would be a done deal but for the fact that some trading platforms show slightly different coordinates that yield a 2152.25 target, Wednesday's exact high. Regardless, the minor pattern shown (see inset, a new chart) can be used by night owls to bottom-fish, since the pattern has been confirmed by some precise

So much for my prediction that Friday would be a boring day.  Payroll figures released before the opening showed the U.S. economy to have added 287,000 McJobs in June. DaBoyz took this number and ran with it, short-squeezing the Dow mercilessly for a 250-point gain. The E-Mini S&P surged a corresponding 32 points to 2120.75, a new record that will likely leave bulls in charge when index futures begin trading again Sunday night. Because the rally somewhat exceeded a plain-vanilla Hidden Pivot target at 2118.00 on the hourly chart, a bigger pattern must be at work. It is shown in the accompanying chart and projects to 2149.25. Notice that the ultimate target could lie well above it, since there are three potential point 'A' lows still available if the 'D' target associated with the one in the chart is surpassed. In retrospect, traders could have bought Wednesday's pullback to p=2065.38 'mechanically' with no pain, albeit $4200 of initial risk per contract. The secondary pivot at 2107.31 could similarly serve as a place to get long with a 'mechanical' bid, but there can be no guarantees the futures will pull back to it before they push on to 2149.25.  If they do, and get past that 'hidden' resistance easily, a 2194.00 target would be in play. That is the 'D' Hidden Pivot associated with A=1907.00 (3/1).  The highest target one could project using the daily chart is 2313.50. That comes from A=1787.50 (2/11/16), and if it comes to pass, the Dow would be trading at or not far below 20,000. The related midpoint pivot is 2147.50, so we should look for a possible stall there as well, since it would confirm the largest pattern. Incidentally, the 2313.50 target is not far above one at 2250 that I projected for the June

Betting action on this vehicle was hot and heavy in the Rick's Picks chat room Wednesday, but I'll take even odds that the week ends with asphyxiating tedium. Yes, these are interesting times, and it is always going to be easier to predict that "something" will happen "soon" than that nothing will. I'm with the "nothings," though, at least for the next couple of days.  If it's excitement you want, I'll suggest hunkering down on the one-minute bar chart, where there is almost never a dull moment. I'll be in the chat room to call the play-by-play in any event, so drop by if you like your technical forecasts mixed with a little satire and cynicism. _______ UPDATE (July 7, 5:16 p.m. EDT): Was that an asphyxiatingly tedious day, or what? The futures fluctuated gratuitously for six hours over a  20-point range, ending the day with a net loss of three points. With one breathtakingly boring day over, the forecast above implies there's one more to endure. Even so, night owls can use this pattern on the 30-minute chart to bottom-fish: a=2102.00 (10:a.m.); b=2082.38; and tentative c=2092.50.  The point 'c' high looks likely to be superseded by a higher coordinate, but bottom-fishing can still be attempted at whatever p midpoint support results using a very tight stop-loss. _______ UPDATE (July 8, 11:07 a.m. EDT):  The glue-sniffing chimps who jockey stocks around each day knee-jerked them higher before the opening this morning, responding to June's meaningless, statistically bogus payroll numbers. They showed a supposedly 'strong' job market. This used to mean, at least in the minds of the chimps, that the Fed wouldn't ease, and that stocks should be sold on the news. Not any longer, apparently. With rates already near zero and going nowhere soon, the current vogue of the

If the futures ease lower for the next couple of days, look for a potentially tradable bounce from the red line, a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 2035.75. It could be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 1.00 point. The pattern lacks a proper 'one-off' 'A', but everything else about it looks enticing enough for a try.  The futures will likely need a running start from lower levels to take on June 24's record peak, implying that a moderate rally at the opening on Wednesday be viewed as a bull trap and therefore a possible shorting opportunity. If this set-up takes shape, it would be best to exploit it using a downtrending 'camouflage' pattern on the 3-minute chart or less. With somewhat less work, you might also be able to get short at the midpoint pivot or 'd' rally target of a minor abc uptrend.

Use the rally pattern shown, with a target at 2111.25, for any 'mechanical' trades from the long side -- or shorts, stop 2112.50 (!), if you're trading aggressively and reversing the position. Assuming the target is hit, that would still leave the futures somewhat shy of the record 2119.50 achieved just before the Brexit vote. Beyond it, I have outstanding targets significantly above -- as high as 2240.00, a major Hidden Pivot resistance flagged here earlier. However, before we focus on them, let's see how well the futures handle resistance at the 2119.50 peak from 11 days ago.  (Note: The chart shows one hypothetical 'mechanical' trade from among numerous such trades that could be develop at p or p2.) _______ UPDATE (July 5, 10:59 a.m. EDT): Crude prices are down sharply this morning for whatever reason, tugging stocks lower. This shall pass, but until then the futures are vulnerable to more downside over the near term to perhaps 2069.50. ON the 30-minute chart, you can find the target using these coordinates: a=2100.50 (1:00 p.m. on 7/4); b= 2082.00 (5:00 a.m. on on 7/5); and c= 2088.00.

In the chat room on Thursday, we used 2090.25 as a lodestone and it served us well, not only keeping us on the right side of the session's 28-point rally, but also providing a very predictable target. How predictable?  Here is my post in the chat room from 12:18, when the futures were closely approaching 2090.25:  "[The E-Minis are] slithering up to a key 'external' peak at 2090.25 recorded last Thursday on the way down. There WILL be a pullback from just beneath it that could be tradable. However, a pullback [following a move ] exceeding 2090.25 by even a tick would almost surely be tradable -- from the long side, of course."  In the actual event, the E-Minis topped at 2088.75 ten minutes later, then spent the next hour-and-a-half screwing the pooch. Whether this entirely gratuitous chop was tradable or not is open to discussion, since the three pullbacks that occurred over the 90-minute pooch-screwing interval amounted to no more than five points each.  Thereafter, however, and precisely on cue, shorts panicked in the final minutes of the session, driving the future up to -- you guessed it! -- an intraday high at 2091.25. Night owls may have an opportunity to get long via a 'counterintuitive' entry if the futures go no lower than 2084.25. I've sketched this tactic for your guidance, using the current low, 2085.00, to set up a possible entry trigger at 2086.81. (Note: This would change if a lower point 'C' occurs.)  The key to the trade, and to maintaining a bullish bias here, is that the AB leg of the ABC pattern shown, in strongly impulsive fashion, exceeded the 2090.25 peak from a week ago.

Here's a homework assignment for those of you who took the Hidden Pivot Course Tuesday night: Call up a one-minute chart of the E-Mini S&Ps, then compare price action to my posts in the chat room on Wednesday beginning at 15:27. It is at that time that I initially expressed skepticism about getting short just beneath a key peak at 2064.75 created on the bounce from the low of the Brexit selloff last week. I did so anyway, using a camouflage pattern; covered it minutes later near an important low; then reversed the position and went long for the so-far 14-point rally that has ensued. This went against a chat-room consensus that seemed, in my estimation, too eager to get short in too obvious a place. My reasoning behind each step is minutely detailed in the chat room posts, so you'll be able to deconstruct the trade in order to learn from it. I have often made the claim that the Hidden Pivot Method is well suited to jumping into a trade when fear, greed and uncertainty are at a crescendo, as was certainly the case here; and to do so with risk very tightly controlled. Take the time to retrace my steps and you will understand why this is so. The initial theoretical risk on the trade was just 1.00 point, but it put us in good position to exploit nearly 20 points of ostensibly wild, inscrutable price swings thereupon.

If you're keeping score, the 'camouflage' trading strategy that I detailed here for night owls Monday evening could have produced a profit of as much as $1400 per contract. The signal triggered at around 1:00 a.m. EDT, with entry coming at exactly 2002.00. Cashing in on the trade required patience, however, since it took more than five hours for the futures to take flight, and another six for a second leg to unfold near the end of what had been a very tedious, choppy day. Looking ahead, chat-room punters seemed eager to fade the trend, but their attempts to pick a top got shredded serially as the futures rose in the final hour to finish near the intraday high. Looking ahead, the rally would begin to look like more than a perfunctory bounce from Thursday's bombed-out lows if and when it exceeds the #2 'external' peak at 2064.75 shown in the chart (see inset).  That's a fairly speculative outcome at this point, and bears have ample reason to bet against it, albeit cautiously with tight stops above well-defined, minor-rally targets.  The bigger picture requires a two-day close above 2065.38 to suggest that the bulls have regained control. That's a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance on the daily chart, and it comes from these coordinates: A=1951.75 (3/10); B= 2119.50 (6/24); and C= 1981.50.

The futures have turned upward Monday night for who-knows-what-reason, and the fact that they've done so without having quite reached a clear correction target at 1973.50 is promisingly bullish. It would be even more bullish if the rally now goes on to exceed the two labeled 'external' peaks, the higher of which lies at 2016.75. Night owls should take note of the tiny look-to-the-left peak at 2003.75, since it has already provided a handhold for a potential 'camouflage' entry created from the very small abc pattern at the right-hand edge of the chart. (Note: The point 'c' low of this pattern does not show up on the 5-minute chart, but it's there -- and potentially quite usable -- on charts of lesser degree.)