Rick Ackerman

I would caution bulls against breaking out the bubbly merely because this gas-bag finally exceeded my 319.92 target after ten days of trying. In the first place, I'd stipulated that AAPL must close above that Hidden Pivot resistance for two consecutive days before we regard the 336.35 target as an odds-on bet. For two, Friday's stall and $6 relapse began almost precisely at the 323.95 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown. That's the most likely place for a trend failure to occur, and so the yellow flag is out, tempering our expectations of a surefire move to 336.35.  The pattern can still be used to trade the stock either bullishly or bearishly, but please note that AAPL would NOT become a mechanical buy on a pullback to x=316.25 because the C-D rally died well short of our sweet spot for this type of trade. _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 9:42 p.m.): I'm tracking 20 June 250 puts @ 3.05 for a subscriber who used my 319.92 target to get short. I've recommended shorting 20 June 245 puts against them for $3.55, but you can go as low as 3.35, where they topped on Monday, if you please.

The March contract impaled a Hidden Pivot resistance at 160^10 on Friday, all but clinching more upside over the short-to-intermediate term. The ABC pattern used to derive the target is so picture-perfect that we might have expected at least a stall within a tick or two of it. Instead, the futures exceeded the pivot decisively, then went on to close above it. Moreover, the apex of the spiky rally surpassed an even more daunting peak at 160^26 recorded in late October. It did so by only two ticks, but the amount of the overshoot is not important -- only the fact that buyers pushed above it. (Elliott Wave chartists look at this the same way we do, always taking care to distinguish between impulsive and merely corrective moves.) The breakout occurred in conjunction with a similar, albeit more subtle, one in the dollar. Something has changed, that much is clear. ______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 9:45 p.m. EST): A powerful thrust extended Friday's sharp gains.  Now, if the futures can push decisively past 162^12, a midpoint Hidden Pivot (30-minute, A= 159^10 on 1/24), they should be presumed bound for at least 163^24. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 8:25 p.m.): T-Bonds reversed sharply as stocks climbed, but their plunge should be viewed as corrective rather than impulsive because of what buyers had accomplished the day before (see above). Now, a pullback to 158^16 would trip a 'mechanical' buy, stop 155^00, predicated on a 168^29 target. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 10:30 p.m.): The futures took off without pulling back much, let alone to 158^16. However, Friday's strong rally brought them to within an inch of a clear rally target at 164^00, so look for a pullback on Monday.  Alternatively, if buyers should easily brush this Hidden Pivot resistance aside, the March contract can be

I'd drum-rolled a 3348.75 bull market target loud enough and long enough that last week's sharp reversal from a high that fell 11 points shy of it was more than a little disappointing.  It was also odd. The ABCD pattern from which the target was extrapolated is so clear and compelling that we might have expected a tradeable top to occur within no more than a point or two of 3348.75. But 11 points below it?  The miss amounted to just 0.3%, but that's as good as a mile for those who were planning to get short when the target was reached.  So how do we interpret the failure of buyers to reach this important price objective, one that has been nearly four months in coming? Very simply, as incipient weakness. Accordingly, we should watch for the downtrend to develop momentum in the week ahead and possibly longer.  This is a novel perspective, since the bull market has routinely been exceeding our rally targets for years. Each time this occurred, we assumed -- correctly, as it happened -- that still higher prices lay ahead.  So now what? A rally back up to the target early next week would negate the bearish implications just noted, but my gut feeling is that this is unlikely to occur. If the downtrend instead gets legs, this will be telegraphed by minor abc downtrends that start to exceed their midpoint supports and perhaps even their 'd' targets. Another way to say this is that down-legs may start acting impulsive rather than corrective. This hasn't happened in a long time, but we should be alert to its meaning if it starts happening now. _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 9:54 p.m. EST): The pattern shown in this chart is gnarly but serviceable, implying you could bottom-fish p=3226.50 gingerly

It has taken GDX more than four months to carve out a saucer bottom to correct last summer's exuberant excesses. The bullishness of the chart shown is unmistakable, as is the 36.66 target. But first buyers will need to hit achieve 31.32, a midpoint resistance that can serve for now as our minimum upside objective. If it is decisively exceeded, especially on first contact, that would significantly shorten the odds of a continuation to at least p2=33.99, but more probably 36.66. As before, I am looking for help picking an entry spot, since this goal will be best served using an rABC entry set-up intraday.  If you are interested in this stock, don't just say so in the chat room; take a bold step forward and contribute to a common goal. _____ UPDATE (Jan 27, 10:01 a.m.): What gratuitous nastiness! Anyway, here's a small bullish pattern with a 30.50 target you can use to trade this vehicle. A pullback to x=28.39 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 27.67. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 8:53 p.m.): Although there were 60 people in the trading today, only one reported having gotten long according to the instruction above. If a second subscriber chimes in, I'll establish a tracking position of 400 shares; otherwise, GDX will come off the list for lack of interest. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:59 a.m.): The position is 'official'. For now, use a stop-loss at 27.67.  GDX has been swimming against a torrent of money flowing into the usual stocks, but it has been doing it well enough to suggest a gold rally is coming if bull-market mania ever takes a breather. _______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:28 p.m.): Offer 200 shares to close at 29.42, day order. _______ UPDATE (Jan 30, 4:35 p.m.): Even when it's in a bull market, gold

Friday's upswing reflexively mirrored the decline of stocks, triggering a theoretical buy signal at 1573.40 in February Gold. I say 'theoretical' because we seldom use this entry tactic due to its high-risk, low-performance track record. In this case, the implied stop-loss at 1536.30, just below the pattern's point 'C' low, would risk a whopping $3700 per contract. We'll trade the futures with a bullish bias nonetheless, predicated on an expected move to at least p=1610.30.  (A 1732.80 target tied to a bigger pattern is also in play, but we'll stick with the little stuff for the moment in order to manage risk most efficiently and precisely.) In practice, this will entail using mechanical and rABC set-ups as they become manifest each day. Stay tuned to the Trading Room and Coffee House if you care, since there are a dozen Pivoteers in these rooms at any time who can trade the bejeezus out of gold using patterns big, small and in-between to significantly limit risk. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 7:55 a.m. EST): The futures are diving ahead of the opening, evidently despairing over the insane strength of index futures overnight. My hunch is that it could conceivably get worse, but not much, since stocks may already be close to their daily limit for giddiness. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 8:58 p.m.):  Things did indeed get worse, but not much. Brace yourself for another grin-an-bear-it day if the stock market continues higher. ______ UPDATE (Jan 29, 9:48 p.m.): Gold benefited from an afternoon selloff in stocks and took a spirited upturn toward 1594.60, the D target of the pattern shown in this chart. (Note: The equivalent target for the just activated April contract is 1600.50, with p=1584.20.)

Three months after bottoming an inch from a well-advertised Hidden Pivot target at 96.40, the Dollar Index has generated its first bullish impulse leg on the 240-minute chart. This was accomplished with great subtlety, since DXY exceeded the requisite external peak I'd identified by just a penny. That's all it took, though, to transform the balky rally of the last three weeks into a promising new start for the greenback. Now, any retracement that stays above 96.36 will be presumed corrective and therefore a buy. It remains to be seen how much pressure a waxing dollar will put on bullion, but as a chat room denizen noted, gold more than held its own when the dollar rallied sharply in the June-October period. _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 10:05 p.m.): A Hidden Pivot resistance at 98.13 is a logical place for a short-term top. ________ UPDATE (Jan 28, 9:04 p.m. EST): DXY dropped 0.22 points after peaking at 98.16, just three cents above my target. Let's see how long the top holds. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 10:49 p.m.): The selloff from within pennies of the 98.13 target I'd flagged continues to lengthen, but support should come in around 97.10. Let's see how it fares. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 9:57 p.m.): The dollar got traction at 97.37, well above the support I'd flagged above. This is mildly bullish, but DXY will needed to take out the old high at 98.19 to generate some excitement. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 9:56 p.m.): The dollar easily cracked  the 98.19 resistance. Now, if it blows past the 98.47 target shown in this chart, it would imply bulls are still rarin' to go. ______ UPDATE (Feb 6, 9:00 p.m.): DXY easily pierced the 98.47 'hidden' resistance, implying that still higher prices are coming. ________ UPDATE (Feb 10, 9:37

Friday's punitive reversal occurred from a high recorded several days earlier that missed a crystal-clear target I'd flagged at 295.62 by a mile. Although the target remains valid in theory, it seems more likely that the selloff will gain momentum this week, generating an impulse leg on the daily chart. That would require a print below 287.84, a threshold that will probably be achieved on Monday's opening if index futures have opened weak Sunday night.  The bearish impulse leg would be no more powerful than the one in early December that gave rise to a powerful rally, but this time it would be occurring in a more critical place --- i.e.,  visibly short of an important target that had the potential to cap the bull cycle begun in October. Regardless, bulls should brace for a fall to at least p=284.62 before they venture forth again.  That would trigger a long-shot 'mechanical' buy in theory, but we would take the trade only with risk very tightly controlled, if at all. ______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 10:07 p.m. EST): Sellers overshot p=284.62 (see above) by  0.76 points, implying they are not spent. The impulse leg would grow in power if further weakness on Tuesday exceeds 283.56. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 9:08 p.m.): DIA leapt higher at the bell and never looked back. In retrospect, p=284.62 now looks like a 'mechanical' buying opportunity foregone. Bulls have a tough climb ahead nonetheless if they are going to reach the 295.62 target that was missed by a foot on January 17, when the Dow notched a record high. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 10:57 p.m.): A tough climb indeed!  DIA reversed sharply from well shy of the 295.62 target identified above and now appears headed down to at least 280.08. Bottom-fish there with a small-pattern rABC pattern,

The buy-the-dips mentality has become so entrenched over the last few months that it's hard to imagine what could possibly derail the bull market. Wall Street feigned mild concern for a few hours over the spread of a deadly virus in China, but absent news that Americans are keeling over dead from it in their back yards, we can expect the broad averages to forge higher.  The uptrend has been so relentless that it has come to practically guarantee a quick return for any investor who jumps aboard on a given day. In no instance during the last three months has any bull  suffered a third straight day of losses.  A strategy as simple as buying the S&Ps whenever they are trading lower for a second consecutive day has been a spectacular winner. Contrarian Bloodfest This has only increased the number of contrarians eager to bet against a trend that has come to seem nearly as predictable as tomorrow's sunrise.  The more contrarians who get slaughtered, the more enticing the seduction of trying to pick The Mother of All Tops. We prefer to use AAPL as a  benchmark -- not to pick THE top, but to nail lesser peaks that can reward short-term bets on the 'Don't Pass' line. But even hitting the swings perfectly has not been paying off lately. The stock is currently in its tenth day trying to get past a 319.92 Hidden Pivot target we'd identified earlier, but there has been only one pullback from this number deep enough to nudge put options slightly into-the-black. Now, if the stock closes above 319.92 for two consecutive days , look for a run-up to at least 336.35. The broad averages cannot but follow suit, entranced by the seeming invincibility of the world's most popular stock. The contagion of

 Lately, we’ve delved more and more deeply into the capabilities of rABC set-ups. This session offers a tight summation of the entry tactics possible using so-called reverse ABC patterns. There are some finely nuanced set-ups on display and the material is dense with detail, but if you understand the basic idea of the rABC, the material should be as clear and useful as anything you will find in the archive.