Rick Ackerman

If the farce of impeachment has had an impact on the stock market, it appears to have steepened the bull's ascent. A fact not lost on investors is that Trump's reelection odds have probably gone up as a result of the Democrats' ill-conceived, relentless attempts to sink him. Pundits still talk as though the 2020 election will be close, but as things stand, a pro-Trump landslide appears more likely. Biden's own Ukraine-related transgressions are far more serious than anything Trump is alleged to have done, and only voters terminally afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome could fail to see this. As for the competition, does anyone actually believe a Socialist who lives for the chance to swing a wrecking ball at the U.S. economy, could get elected with unemployment running at 3.5% and the stock market hitting record highs?  Hillary and Mike Bloomberg are waiting in the wings and probably have a better chance of unseating Trump, but not much. The latter, a white billionaire, will have more than a little difficulty getting nominated at a convention controlled by the Democratic Party's ultra-left wing. As for Clinton, she is as disingenuous, corrupt and unlikeable as ever, and only a hack editorialist at the New York Times or some idiot pollster could think she has a chance of regaining the White House. The Biggest Risk The foregoing notwithstanding, a bear market that comes, as they always do, from out of nowhere, could still spoil Trump's re-election bid. Odds of this happening will decrease with each passing month, and the waxing bullish effect could soar out-of-control if stocks are holding steady come summer. In the meantime, the bull market and an exceptionally strong economy have made a mockery of the impeachment hearings, which almost no one is watching anyway.

The bull-market pattern shown is so gnarly that it seems likely to work. By 'work', I mean come close to calling the top in AAPL's lunatic-powered bull market.  The 319.92 target was missed by just $1.12 earlier this week, and it remains to be seen whether the stock will be short-squeezed into a head-fake that comes even closer to the target before wild-eyed bulls get their comeuppance. In the meantime, I will provide tracking guidance, although not an official position, for at least one subscriber who managed to get short near the top. He goes by the handle 'TraderMike' in the chat room, and he has always lived up to that nickname. He owns 20 June 250 puts for 3.05. For now, offer 20 June 245 puts short against them for 3.55, good-till-canceled. ______ UPDATE (Jan 22, 5:02 p.m.): AAPL has been playing toe-sies with my target since January 13 and today inched slightly above yesterday's high, hitting 319.99.  I'll avert my eyes for now, but if and when it blows higher use this pattern, with a 336.35 target, to tame the beast and make some money at it.

I've redrawn the chart to produce a 295.62 target that looks promising for a shortable top. Your trading bias should be bullish until it is reached, but you can short there aggressively if you've made money on the way up. I'd suggest using puts priced under 0.70 with 7-12 days left on them. We do not need to go further out in time because our strategy is predicated on catching a bearish reversal precisely when it begins. The new target replaces one at 291.78 that has looked less enticing as DIA's ascent has progressed, It uses a point 'A' low that was made in off-hours trading, as occurred several times during the rally begun in mid-October.  The target roughly corresponds to a revised 'D' that I have proffered for the E-Mini S&Ps. Like that tout, this one will not be publicly viewable.

Identifying Hidden Pivot targets that work precisely can sometimes be as much art as science, but the one shown, at 3348.75, promises to put a top on the historical bull run launched from 2882 in October. Two other rally targets that I broached here earlier will still be in play: 3326.25, and 3373.50. I have taken them out of boldface to make clear that you should favor 3348.75 as a place to get short, presumably with an rABC set-up on a chart of lesser degree. Until the target is reached, however, you should trade with a bullish bias, albeit a cautious one, as 3326.25 is closely approached. I seldom recommend 'mechanical' buys on pullbacks to p2, which in this case lies at 3279.31. However, I will green-light the trade, stop 3256.00, for those of you who are familiar with the old-style mechanical set-up. Recall that activating the bid in this gambit requires a series of bars with white space between the low of the bars and p2. The gist of it is a lazy, sideways drift above p2 before the trade triggers. I am suggesting this alternative, or even a mechanical bid at the red line (p), stop 3163.50, because the rally has seemed too strong to favor us with a pullback to the green line (x) where we typically do mechanical trades. To avoid queering the target by advertising it too aggressively, I've made this tout viewable only to paying subscribers. ______ UPDATE (Jan 24, 10:29 p.m. EST): The 3373.50 target noted above looks too good to be treated cavalierly. Here's the chart, which shows why you can count on it if 3348.75 gives way easily. Pivoteers may notice that I've passed up a nice-looking one-off 'A', but I am not unmindful of it. It corresponds to a 'D'

We continue to look for, and to find, increasingly subtle nuances in rABC set-ups. Split the same hair enough times and you come up with trades of such small degree that they ALL work – which is to say, produce a profit. But sometimes the expected returns can be so meager that it’s hardly worth the bother. No problem, since we always have the option of zooming out on a chart to find the kind of winners than can make one’s day/week. The simple rule in any instance is to look for set-ups on small charts only after you have found a corresponding opportunity on a chart of larger degree.

Stocks have been running in place since Friday, presumably developing thrust for a move to new record highs. Ordinarily, the signing of the trade pact with China might have been expected to provide more boost than we saw on Wednesday. But the news was tempered with some facts that evidently were not widely known. Reportedly, many of the tariffs put in place during the two-year trade war will remain there until after the U.S. election. The very good news, however, is that President Trump has not given away the store just for the sake of appearances. He is willing to scale back tariffs on more than $300 billion in goods if China shows good faith toward the pact just signed. That means not only opening up certain markets to U.S. producers, but taking preliminary steps to demonstrate respect for intellectual property.  We'd been skeptical that the agreement would amount to much, but it's probably as good a deal as we could have hoped for. The opportunity to improve on it during new rounds of talks will surely have a positive impact on the stock market between now and next November.

Boeing shares were up more than $5 at one point Tuesday, ostensibly on news that orders had fallen to a 16-year low. Go figure. The dearth of new business is a predictable result of the global grounding of the best-selling 737 MAX following two collisions that killed 346. Lately, there has been a non-stop onslaught of bad press that will blacken the company's reputation for years or even decades. Just last week, internal memos surfaced that showed Boeing to have been recklessly irresponsible for downplaying the need for simulator training to familiarize pilots with the MAX's automated flight-control system. Moreover, a Congressional inquiry revealed, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, that "the apparent pressure to save money and make the MAX more marketable to airline customers without upfront simulator training didn’t come from individual employees, [but from] high up in the Boeing corporation." A week earlier, Boeing reportedly increased its reserves by $5 billion to handle legal fallout from the MAX crashes. Remember GE's Long Goodbye? That's not exactly what investors want to hear. And yet, preternaturally strong hands have so far managed to hold the stock above lows near $320 recorded last October, after the second crash. This has been possible in part because sales of other aircraft, including 787s and wide-body 777s, have remained relatively robust. Boeing has lost considerable ground to archrival Airbus nevertheless, and it is still uncertain when the MAX will fly again. It has been no small feat under such duress for the institutional investors with whom Boeing shares reside to plump them for distribution. But who would be the buyers? Certainly not widows and pensioners, since the stock sells for more than $300 a share.  Whoever steps in, it seems likely that BA will trade for significantly less before the

The 314.28 target drum-rolled here earlier looks like a logical spot for the rally to fail. However, if buyers should exceed it intraday by more than 0.30 or so -- or better yet, close above it -- use the 319.92 target shown in the monthly chart (inset) as a minimum price objective. Both of these hidden Pivot resistances are sufficiently clear and compelling that I'll be surprised if AAPL ignores them. A small speculative position in sub-$1 puts with 7-12 days left on them would be appropriate at either number, but don't risk more than you can afford to lose painlessly. If they double in value, cash out half and save the rest. _______ UPDATE (Jan 13, 2:36 p.m. EST):  With a high so far today at 314.90, AAPL has traded sufficiently above the 314.28 target that I'm shifting my focus -- and the possibility of getting short -- to the 319.92 target.  [Late-breaking note: AAPL eventually traded as high as 317.07. Plan B remains viable.] _______ UPDATE (Jan 14, 9:59 p.m.): The stock climbed to 318.80 overnight but fell too sharply by the opening to allow us to squeeze off a shot. The off-hours high may turn out to have been the important top we'd anticipated, but since the trade was nearly impossible to have executed satisfactorily, I am not establishing a tracking position.

The futures recovered somewhat after getting knocked down midweek, but not before they'd impaled a 1592.80 midpoint resistance tied to a bull-market target at 1732.50. Odds of reaching so optimistic a benchmark would shorten if the monthly bar finishes above the 1592.80 midpoint pivot. There's little value in speculating about this now, but if the futures pull back to the green line at 1523.00, that would trip a moderately appealing 'mechanical' buy signal we can leverage in several ways. For detailed guidance in real time, tune to the chat room if weakness brings the February contract down another $30 or so. _______ UPDATE (Jan 14, 10:05 p.m.): Buyers have come back to life with a bounce precisely from the midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in this chart. The rally will become interesting if and when it exceeds C=1564.10 of the pattern shown, wrecking the short-term-bearish look of the lesser charts. ______ UPDATE (Jan 21, 8:14 p.m.): It's just like gold to pop above my number, 1564.10, and then to tank. I'd said that such a rally would pique my interest, but I must confess that it has only tested my patience. For now, you can use p=1549.30 shown in this chart to get long a tick above with a stop-loss as tight as four ticks. If you can convert this to an rABC set-up, it would improve your odds. _______ UPDATE (Jan 22, 9:36 p.m.): Today's marginally higher high created a new point 'C' along with a new midpoint pivot at 1552.70 where you can attempt bottom-fishing. I've labeled a and b coordinates in this chart that would be appropriate for using an rABC set-up to get long, but a 1552.90 bid, stop 1551.90 will suffice, albeit with somewhat more risk. _______ UPDATE (Jan 23, 10:37 p.m.): The recommendation proffered