Rick Ackerman

Because Apple's story has grown dull as dirt, it is appropriate that we focus on the company's shares as a key bull-market bellwether. Portfolio managers are surely aware that iPhone sales are weakening and that the Cupertino giant has lost its way as an innovator. Nor can any of them be excited by Apple's belated move into streaming content (competing as a discounter, it would appear).  And yet, institutional investors seem to have no qualms about throwing vast quantities of Other People's Money at AAPL to keep it buoyant, and about buying dips that they themselves have engineered. A Lazy Bull This is a lazy way to keep the bull market going, and it is why we should be skeptical of every uptick. However, my current outlook says AAPL is headed at least 10% higher, to exactly 242.48. If this prediction proves correct it would mean the Dow and the S&Ps are going higher as well, even if not as steeply. Notice in the chart that the stock impaled the red line last week on the way up. That's what I call a midpoint Hidden Pivot, and when it is trashed on first contact as occurred here, one can infer with confidence that the 'D'  target of the pattern -- in this case 242.48 -- will be reached. This is hard to believe, given that housing, autos, manufacturing and maybe even consumer spending have peaked.  I'll put aside my gut feeling for now, though, and go with the charts, since they have rarely failed me.

With one of the world's major oil facilities in flames, heavily damaged by Iranian cruise missiles, Wall Street barely flinched. Stocks recouped about half of Sunday night's sharp losses and looked ready  to fly on Tuesday. Only inches separate the Dow and the S&Ps from new record highs that seem very likely to be achieved. We'll be on our guard no matter what, since it is September after all -- one heckuva time for shares to be trading at such lofty heights.

As we might have expected, getting short at an enticing rally target proved more difficult than it sounded. The position would have faced 'weekend risk,' requiring us to trust that Trump would not be tweeting up a bullish storm about the trade talks. Instead, Iran bombed a Saudi oil facility, causing a global selloff in stocks. The odd thing is, the selloff seems to have abated at the moment without ever having become an avalanche. Perhaps those who have yet to panic don't understand the situation? Regardless, we'll step back for now to see whether the selloff gets legs. We should resist the urge to buy anything in the meantime, since there's no way this very real crisis will simply melt away. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 8:55 p.m. ET): The futures gave up little ground following troubling news, suggesting that the bullish rampage begun in the last week of August has farther to go. We'll try to get short if this vehicle moves into record territory, but for now just spectate. ______ UPDATE (Sep 17, 5:45 p.m.): With the futures just inches from new record highs, I am unable to give you a clear target at the moment. I am somewhat skeptical of the rally, however, and can offer this chart to show you how to get short using an rABC pattern. It is intended for night owls, with a set-up that would apply to the December contract if it spikes into the 3010-3012 range and pulls back to the green line. (Note: Don't even think about this trade unless you understand how rABC set-ups work. They have been the chief substance of Wednesday tutorial sessions for the last couple of months.)

Gold's response to news that Iran destroyed a key Saudi oil facility is shockingly feeble so far. The futures are up $15 at the moment, but the rally has yet to surpass even a single important peak on the hourly chart. It also denied us an opportunity to get long via a 'counterintuitive' set-up predicated on a dip below 1488.90. As things stand, the 1622.90 target we've been using for a month is still in effect, but we'll need to see more buying enthusiasm before I can recommend jumping aboard. Specifically, a breakout above September 6's  peak at 1536.20 would put the 1622.90 target well in play again. _______ UPDATE (Sep 16, 9:03 p.m.): The CI set-up noted above may yet materialize, so stay tuned to the chat room if you're interested. _______ UPDATE (Sep 18, 9:54 pm.): The prospect of a dip below 1488.90 has dragged on for so long that I am no longer much interested in the 'counterintuitive' trade noted above.  The futures can still be worked, but if you're eager for action, it might require close attention to the intraday charts over the next two days.

For a rare change, global markets seem genuinely concerned about the news. A drone attack by Iran over the weekend knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia's refining capacity, amounting to roughly five percent of global supply. Fox and other news outlets underplayed the story initially, putting it beneath the latest sex charges against Kavanaugh. But the Saudi story shot up to the top of the page when index futures began trading Sunday evening and oil prices soared $8 to a high of nearly $63 per barrel. So far, though, traders have gotten it only half-right. Comex gold is up a mere $14 at the moment (see chart above), and S&PS futures are off only 18 points. This suggests that although the threat to the world's oil supplies is perceived as real, it is not yet considered a full-blown crisis in the trading world. Shades of Goldfinger? They'll wise up soon enough, though, especially if Trump chooses to confront Iran. Until now, the mullahs have confined their attacks to oil tankers bearing the flags of countries unlikely to retaliate. By launching drones (or possibly cruise missiles) on a Saudi facility, they have declared war on a key U.S. ally. Trump has responded by approving the use of America's emergency oil reserves to dampen any price spike, but it is unclear how he will deal with Iran itself. So far, the President has been all words when handling North Korea, China and Cuba/Venezuela. But none of them has pressed him nearly as aggressively or persistently as Iran. It is one thing for Kim Jong-un to shoot missiles into the air or even over Seoul, but quite another for Khamenei to actually bomb one of the world's most important oil facilities. Some are comparing this to Pearl Harbor, but that was

The risk-off story that has decimated T-Bonds seems unpersuasive in this very troubled world. Bond prices have plunged simply because stocks have risen, goosed repeatedly by Trump tweets hinting that trade talks with China will settle amicably. Even if a face-saving deal is reached -- and that is probably the best we can hope for -- it is unlikely to revive global trade to the extent that has been discounted by the markets. Their aberrant behavior implies there may be an opportunity to profit when risk-off craziness subsides and the trends reverse. Specifically, we'll look to buy call options in this ETF, which tracks the long bond, as it bottoms. The chart shows why this may have occurred on Friday. My hunch is that TLT has further to fall, but let's get our feet wet anyway, bidding 0.48 for four October 18 142 calls, day order. This is a cautious bid designed to take advantage of opening-hour shenanigans, so don't pay up. If the algos trade close to our bid without filling it, we can adjust on-the-fly. ______ UPDATE Sep 17, 6:06 p.m.) With TLT on the rise the calls have traded no lower than 0.85. Cancel the bid for now -- we'll try again later if weakness returns. _______ UPDATE (Sep 24, 10:05 p.m.): So much for weakness returning! Use the 145.74 midpoint resistance shown in this chart as a minimum upside target for now. _______ UPDATE (Sep 25, 9:36): Let's use this weakness to stake out a small position. For now, bid 0.18 for eight 25th Oct 150 calls, good through Friday. If the order fills and TLT rallies, we'll look to turn it into a calendar spread by shorting 150s with closer expiration date. The 150 strike coincides with p2= 150.33 of a big bullish pattern begun

Just when we thought we had gold figured out, it turned a promising rally into dross. Although the so-far $30 dive from an intraday high at 1532.00 may have disappointed bulls, it did not likely scare them. That's because bears have been struggling themselves for a week to do even minor damage to the bullish chart shown. Its 1622.90 target remains viable in theory, but it would appear that the point 'C' low associated with the target is likely to be breached. If the implied downthrust is spiky enough, it could set up an enticing rABC trade, where A= 1496.80 on 9/11 at 9:00 p.m. ET. The implied entry risk would be around $900 per contract, but a cheaper play in GLD may be possible. If there is interest in the chat room and the trade hasn't triggered before the regular session begins, I'll provide further guidance.

Elsewhere on the page, I've given my reasons for buying bullion and put options less aggressively than I'd intended just a few days ago. Apple shares popped in a big way Wednesday, and that's what changed my mind. The stock market sometimes rallies at peculiar times, and this is one of them. September is historically the worst month for shares, and this September in particular has been fraught with scary headlines about a weakening global economy. The Fed has validated our fears by kowtowing to Trump's repeated calls for easing.  The markets have a perverse way of moving opposite expectations. If it were otherwise, we'd all get rich by simply following the trend. With stocks moving steeply higher, it is becoming more obvious by the day that the herd began September expecting the worst.

Judging from the way AAPL gapped through the 217.63 'hidden' resistance shown in the chart, the stock seems all but certain to achieve a 242.48 rally target derived from the same pattern. This implies the broad averages are about to move sharply higher as well and that any ideas we might have harbored about stockpiling put options should be put on hold, at least for the time being.  The rally would equate to a gain of about 8.5% in the value of Apple shares. If the Dow were to move up only half as strongly, it would be sitting at 28,290, exactly 1153 points above current levels. The bullish technical picture is at odds with data suggesting the global economy is slipping into a recession or worse. Housing and autos have peaked in the U.S., and so, probably, have corporate earnings. To make matters worse, share buybacks have tapered off as surplus funds repatriated to the U.S. under Trump's favorable tax rules have dried up.  It is natural to want to load up on puts under the circumstances. However, given Apple's bellwether status, the chart is telling stock-market bears to be patient. Hold Off on Bullion And gold bulls as well. A resurgent bull market is certain to put bullion and mining shares under pressure, interrupting the powerful rally begun late in May. They have held up well so far and on Tuesday even gained some ground with the Dow up 227 points. This is a very bullish sign, and it provide reason to think the precious metals sector will hang tough if there's a blowoff coming in the stock market. However, if you plan to buy bullion aggressively, you may get better prices by waiting for 2-3 weeks. ______ UPDATE (Sep 17, 6:17 p.m.):  My immediate outlook is still