Rick Ackerman

A 2624.75 target has kept us confidently on the right side of the trend as the futures have continued to fall. But now what? They got within 1.25 points of our price objective on Friday when shares fell moderately to end a holiday-shortened week. I have typically suggested bottom-fishing in such circumstances, any you can certainly do so here with a stop loss as tight as 2623.75 if Sunday night's opening is sluggish. However, let's also allow for a continuation of the bloodbath, using the 2613.13 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart as a minimum downside objective.  As always, a decisive penetration on first contact would imply more slippage to the associative 'D' target -- in this case 2555.00._______ UPDATE (Nov 26, 8:26 a.m. ET): The futures have taken a big bounce from within a millimeter of the 2624.75 target. The rally is moderately impulsive on the hourly chart but would become more so on a print exceeding 2671.25. If you got long at the bottom please let me know in the chat room so that I can determine whether to establish a tracking position.

Gold fell a further $13 on Friday, pausing just a few ticks above the 1206.70 target I'd sent out the night before. I say that the futures have merely paused because the void beneath that low looks like it wants to be filled. That would imply renewed weakness in the days or perhaps weeks ahead to at least 1190.50, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart. Notice that the worst case over the next several weeks would be 1134.90, a crystal-clear target that lies 6% below. A decline of that magnitude would be discouraging, but it would still be a far cry from the sub-$1000 prices that some bullion bears have long predicted. A half-hearted sell-off would reflect the reality that weakness since 2011, when gold's price hit a record high $1911, has been merely corrective of a long-term bull market begun in 2008 from $680. Sellers Unable to Deliver a Coup de Grace As persistent and vexatious as sellers have been since 2011, they have lacked the power to deliver a coup de grace. While it's conceivable that gold could eventually fall below $1000, there are no strong indications on the long-term chart that this is likely.  Indeed, price action since early 2016 has been bullish and could support a push to as high as 1452.60. This would be in the context of a decade-long bull market that could ultimately reach 2278.20. Click here to see the picture. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 9:34 p.m.): A sharp push past 1225.40 would re-energize bulls for a possible shot at 1254.10. Here's the chart.  _______UPDATE (Nov 15, 7:30 p.m.): This pattern looks extremely likely to work, meaning that a decisive stab past p=1216.30 will put December Gold on course for a run-up to exactly 1225.50. If so, that would set

Crude's price fluctuations are a circus act that I've watched with diminishing interest over the years. It's easy enough to predict short-term swings with sufficient accuracy to make money at it, as Rick's Picks subscribers who traded NYMEX futures and energy ETFs yesterday would be happy to attest. But paying diligent attention to the constant barrage of supply-and-demand spin that drives the big moves could make a guru's head spin. On some days, the Saudi princes seem out-of-sync with their own PR flacks, promising plenty of oil when their gallimaufry of useful idiots are spreading a 'tightening' story like some strain of flu. The China Factor I've added this oil tout to today's list nonetheless because I was curious about where prices might actually be headed. Clearly, not to the 2.06 target shown in the chart. But it's still a good number to use to get the trend right, suggesting as it does that prices will continue to be pulled sharply lower by global forces that are only now becoming recognized. Near the top of the list would be the threat of a global slowdown. It has gotten a good start from China, whose already-serious recession has become an important factor in crude's dive since early October. Prices peaked around $77 a barrel, but they were at $55.40 when the regular session ended on Tuesday. This equates to a decline of 28%. We shouldn't be surprised to see quotes go even lower in the weeks and months ahead, possibly to the $30.25 'secondary Hidden Pivot' shown in the chart. If that were to occur we could conceivably witness that rarest of miracles -- i.e., lower prices at the pump. But I wouldn't hold my breath.  We should also allow for the remote possibility that forces unknown -- war in the

Friday's holiday-shortened session provided ample time for bulls to get their butts kicked. It's unusual to see stocks get whacked the day after Thanksgiving, but perhaps such occurrences will become the norm as this bear market unfolds. If it proves to be as extraordinary as the bull market that preceded it, we shouldn't be surprised to see bad days that are uglier than even old-timers can remember. Friday was not so bad, actually, considering that crude oil fell by nearly $5 a barrel.  The Dow was down a measly 178 points in sympathy, suggesting that those who bought the dip, providing modest support, were too stupid to panic. A Fortune Has Vanished Enormous fortunes have already been lost as the price of crude has collapsed from $76 to $50 in less than two months. The energy sector was where the big money went in search of leverage after the real estate collapse of 2007-08. Now that bet is imploding, generating a whiff not only of a global economic downturn that has been gathering strength and which will soon engulf the U.S., but also of a catastrophic debt deflation that has grown increasingly likely since the late 1970s. The Fed will tighten one last time in December, just to be seen as walking the walk. The central bank's final turn of the screw will be perceived eventually as the straw that broke the camel's back, but at least the markets will not have tightening to worry about as they continue to fall. To give Trump his due, he has adroitly set up the Fed as the fall guy for the coming recession -- not that there is ever anyone else to blame for America's insane boom-and-bust cycles. Historians will debate whether the Fed was too tight, but a much more important

AMZN has taken a tentative bounce from a secondary pivot at 1545.16. This is a logical place for a reversal to occur if the bounce is going to get legs. However, for bulls to nail it they would need to push the stock a further $80, exceeding the external peak at 1673.00 shown in the chart. That would put 1696.51 in play as a minimum upside objective, with potential for a run-up to as high as 1846.51. Alternatively, a relapse exceeding 1545.16 would put in play the 1465.55 target shown. _______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 9:05 a.m.): The stock has gotten schmeissed overnight and should now be assumed headed down to at least 1415.36. That's the last logical short-term target available on the hourly chart, derived from sliding the point 'A' high up to Oct 17's 1845.00. Please note that an alternative low at 1400.67 is possible if I use the 1859.69 'A' created overnight on 10/17. One  target or the other, precisely, is extremely likely to produce a tradeable bounce. ________ UPDATE (Nov 20, 9:56 p.m.): A spectacular, 92-point plunge brought the stock down to within less than $5 of the 1415.36 target I'd sent out the night before. It remains viable in theory, but bulls appeared to be gearing for a rebound to at least 1544.07. If they can get decisively past that midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, they'll have a shot at 1601.44._______ UPDATE (Nov 25, 5:07 p.m.): The sleazeballs who manipulate this stock for a living would love to run it up bears' old wazoo, but it won't be possible as long as AAPL continues to fall. Accordingly, you should use the 1456.04 midpoint support shown here as a minimum downside objective for the near term. It looks like it'll be a great spot to try tightly stopped

AAPL remains the stock that matters most, so bulls shouldn't get their hope too high that the carnage is over. I still have an outstanding target down at 170.78, implying the iPhone-maker's shares will fall a further $6, or 3.4%, before bulls can turn the stock around.  Seasonality and a dearth of sellers will weigh heavily in their favor when stocks resume trading on Friday, but any short squeeze that falls shy of 187.10, a benchmark equal to a minor external peak  recorded Monday on the way down, should be regarded as mere noise.

Tuesday's brutal slide left some key targets unfulfilled -- most notably in AAPL (see inset) and the E-Mini S&Ps. The targets are not far beneath the intraday lows, so we might look for a significant reversal if stocks open Wednesday morning on merely moderate weakness. Seasonality is strongly bullish, and DaBoyz are unlikely in any event to leave much unfinished business -- i.e., heavy dumping -- for a Friday when trade desks will be deserted. Rick's Picks will be providing only limited coverage itself, so the next updates will be Sunday evening. Let me take this opportunity to wish you all a happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy the holiday!

Although the futures have been falling hard, the weakness has been punctuated by upward spasms that have made staying short practically impossible. The bearish, 2624.75 target shown, which lies about 70 points below, looks like a good bet to be achieved over the next day or two. But I am not suggesting a mechanical short on a rally to the green line because of the choppy price action of the A-B leg. More appealing would be a 'counterintuitive' buying set-up from near the 2603.00 low that occurred on October 29. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care.______ UPDATE (Nov 20, 9:35 p.m.): The low of today's 60-point plunge brought the futures to within seven points of the 2624.75 Hidden Pivot target proffered above. It remains viable, but if buyers can push this brick above 2683.50 intraday, that would raise the odds we've seen an important turn. Here's the chart.

I'll continue to train a spotlight on AAPL because it is the stock that matters most. If it is falling, the broad averages will be weak; and if it is rising, stocks will be held buoyant. On Monday, it almost looked as though the two were headed in opposite directions. At the opening bell, AAPL gapped $3.50 beneath Friday's final sale and couldn't sustain even a small bounce.  But even as it was getting pounded, the Dow rallied from down 100 points to within 22 points of unchanged. It didn't take long for the Indoos to get in bearish gear, however, and they fell for the rest of the day, more or less synchronized to AAPL's small ups and and large downs. I expect AAPL to go even lower in the days ahead. Most immediately, there's a target that lies $3.00 beneath Monday's 185.85 close. But if that Hidden Pivot support is decisively breached it will open a path down to as low as 170.78 over the near term. All eyes will be on the stock whatever it does, but keep my targets in mind if you want a more accurate sense of where the turns are most likely to occur.