Rick Ackerman

Wednesday's monster rally was just the beginning of a surge that can end only when the last die-hard bear has thrown in the towel. Although the short-covering panic goosed stocks into the clouds, the wild-blue-yonder, blow-off phase lies just ahead. Hundreds of stocks, most crucially AAPL, lifted from the danger zone, shifting the herd's tiny, fevered brains from bearish to bullish in the space of just a single day. Perforce, all news will be perceived as good news for the remainder of the year. And, like clockwork, what I have cynically labeled the 'Santa Dead-Cat Bounce' will unfold even as mounting problems in three key sectors -- housing, retail and autos -- move temporarily offstage. Dog Bites Man!!! The trigger for the Dow's 617-point wilding spree was a few cryptic words from the Fed's current blatherer-in-chief, Jerome Powell. As the clock struck noon, he said something that was construed as dovish on interest rates, causing stocks to take off like the proverbial bat emerging from Hell. We'll leave the debate over exactly what he said to the infotainment world's talking heads and other useful idiots. But it boiled down to something every market-watcher on Earth already knew -- i.e., that although the central bank might tighten one more time this year just to be perceived as walking the walk, that will be it: no more rate hikes (and maybe even a little easing somewhere down the road...who knows?) To judge from Wall Street's reaction, we should assume that a thousand-point rally will greet Powell's inevitable announcement of -- who's counting any longer? -- QE4.

AAPL is struggling to hold above a crucial 'Hidden Pivot' support at $170, but if it gives way expect the broad averages to take another nasty leg down in sympathy. The stock is sufficiently oversold to be primed for a bear rally of perhaps 8-10%. But who would do the buying? Ordinarily, short-covering is the only source of bids strong enough to excavate a stock from a trough as deep as the one AAPL has fallen into over the last month. But a bear squeeze seems increasingly unlikely now that the threat of a tariff on iPhones is in the news.  Trump said Tuesday that he was considering broadening the trade war against China with levies on some high-volume consumer electronics products, including the iPhone. This could significantly impact the Cupertino retailer's bottom line, since Apple is already meeting stubborn price resistance from consumers who seem to have discovered they can live without the latest iPhone model for an additional year or two. Even if Apple ultimately dodges the tariff bullet, uncertainty about the outcome is likely to persist in the months ahead. Under the circumstances, investors should prepare for more weakness in Apple shares, which could drop quickly to the 162.43 target I broached here recently. With AAPL currently trading for around 174, that would represent a 6.6% fall and a 30% decline from the all-time high of 233 recorded nearly two months ago. ______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 2:13 p.m.): Tariffs shmariffs. What on earth was I thinking!!?? Fear of them is having zero effect at this moment on AAPL, which has blasted into the go-ahead zone with a mid-day short squeeze. It has removed the $170 support as an immediate concern and made the 10% rally noted above an odds-on bet.

All roads point relentlessly south, but there are too many 'D' targets of varying degree to get a confident handle on whence the inevitable upturn will occur. Instead, let's simplify the outlook by setting a screen alert at 57.42. That's where the January contract would exceed the two 'external' peaks we require to generate an impulse leg on the 240-minute chart.  The higher is of a lesser degree than the lower, but it'll do for our purpose, which is to know with confidence when crude's rally has turned into the real McCoy rather than just another dead-cat bounce. _______ UPDATE (Dec 1):  The January contract is struggling to hold above the 49.68 midpoint pivot shown here.  If it is decisively breached, that would put the pattern's 46.80 'D' target in play._______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 9:53 p.m.): News of a cease fire on tariffs between Messrs. Trump and Xi has turned the 49.68 midpoint support noted above into a launching pad. The recent lows there should hold for a while.

Comex futures have achieved the dubious distinction of being the only vehicle I trade that routinely fails to convert picture-perfect 'mechanical' trade set-ups into winners. That this has occurred in the context of a bullish pattern that goes back to mid-August suggests that buyers are too lazy and uninspired to shift a fundamentally positive chart into second gear. Well, at least gold is not moving in reverse.  But three steps up, two steps back has been a challenge to enthuse over. For now, and simply to chase boredom, you could try bottom fishing at p=1210.00 (see inset), with a 1210.10 bid, stop 1209.80. ______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 2:23 p.m.): The futures popped a $16 rally from 1210.50, four ticks above the 1210.10 bid I'd advised. Were we perhaps front-run by a Goldman mole who stays closely tuned to Rick's Picks?  In any case, I see the rally as a fake, since it was caused by a dovish Fed headline that had already been thoroughly discounted. Powell seemed to be saying what we all knew -- that the Fed might tighten the screw one more time in December, but that'll be it. The market jumped not because of this supposed news, but because every trade desk boss on earth knew that every trade-desk competitor would reflexively pounce on stocks in response.______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 9:41 p.m.): If this were any vehicle other than gold, I'd say the 1234.30 rally target shown here is a lock-up to be reached. Let's see._______ UPDATE (Dec 1): Friday's weakness was disappointing but not fatal. However, any lower -- specifically, a fall beneath 1216.80 -- would negate the 1234.30 target. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 11:07 a.m.): Apologies. I somehow got too busy over the weekend to post this chart, which highlights an in-your-face rally target for

The futures were bound for the 2711.00 Hidden Pivot target shown (see inset) when the regular session ended. Upside penetration of the 2683 midpoint resistance was sufficient to imply that a continuation of the rally to at least D=2711.00 is a good bet. Accordingly, I will specifically recommend a 'mechanical' bid on a pullback to the green line (2669.19), provided the retracement comes from 2691.00 or lower. A stop-loss at 2655.25 would obtain.  As always, if buyers push easily past the target, that would signal still higher prices to come -- presumably a test of recent peaks near 2750._______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 2:31 p.m.): The futures blasted off without coming down to our niggardly bid. They are headed for a test of some peaks near 2749 that were recorded from Nov 14-19.______UPDATE (Nov 29, 9:45 p.m.): Buyers easily exceeded all but one of the peaks noted above, implying they will return to finish the job on Friday. Use 2784.00 for a minimum target, and consider it a done deal once p=2753.63 has been surpassed (30-minute, A= 2684.25 on 11/28). _______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 10:09 p.m.): There's trendline resistance at 2814.75 (click here to see it), but also a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 2813.00 (60-min, A= 2655.25 on 11/27), implying this powerful rally will face daunting resistance in that range. If buyers can push past it, or better yet close above 2815, that would have bullish implications going forward. The next target above is at 2841.00 (60-min, A=2603.00 on 10/29)._______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 10:14 p.m.): Today's powerful rally stopped exactly where expected, at 2814.00.  The futures have since fallen 40 points to fill the gap from Friday, allowing shorts to cover for as much as a $2000 profit per contract. Our focus will now shift to 2841.00 as the target

AMZN's 1420.00 low last week came within a hair of a 1415.36 target that had been nearly six weeks in coming. That suggests that the bounce, assuming it is just a correction, could take at least 2-3 weeks to play out. We shall see. In the meantime, the rally has exhausted all legitimate targets on the hourly chart and will need to surpass another external peak to generate a fresh impulse leg. The nearest lies at 1624.82 and should pose no problem, given the viciousness of Monday's short-squeeze opening bar. AMZN is nearly as important a stock-market bellwether as AAPL, and the two must move in tandem if they are to summon the animal spirits necessary to keep the broad averages climbing a formidable wall of worry. It now includes fading housing and auto sectors, a serious downturn in the economies of China and Germany, and a possible peak in corporate earnings._______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 6:08 p.m. ET): There's no point in pussyfooting, so I've chosen a very gnarly but nonetheless plausible pattern that yields the most ambitious rally target possible on the lesser charts: 1775.07. A stall at p=1688.15 would confirm it.  Here's the picture.   _______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 9:50 p.m.): Amazon retreated $15 after exceeding our 1688.15 benchmark by a whisker. My outlook remains unchanged._______ UPDATE (Dec 2, 6:30 p.m.): The 1775.07 rally target remains valid, but we can break the move into smaller, more easily tradable segments by focusing on the lesser target at 1733.31 shown here. A decisive push past p=1693.20 would all but clinch it, and a pullback from our 'sweet spot' could set up a 'mechanical' buy. Tune to the chat room for real-time guidance._______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 10:35): When I proffered the 1775.07 target, I  considered it very ambitious, but I never imagined that

Buyers turned chicken late in the session, relapsing 15 points instead of taking on the 2683.50 'external' peak shown. They'll get another crack at it on Tuesday, but if they need more time, we should look less seriously on the effort.  Keep in mind there's an unfulfilled downside target at 2474.75 that goes back to a cycle begun from 2944.75 on October 3.  The midpoint pivot lies at 2646.63, a number that has been central to the E-Mini's oscillations over the last week or so. But if Friday's 2626.00 low gives way, that would imply more slippage to as low as 2560.19, the pattern's secondary pivot. Here's the chart, which also references an interim target at 2595.25.

I advised subscribers who got long in AAPL Monday to take partial profits on the $4 rally that ensued, since the stock could turn unfriendly with no warning and for no apparent reason. Although my latest update for the iPhone maker's shares raises the possibility the rally is just getting started, we shouldn't rule out the equally plausible scenario that the stock is about to get hammered anew. DaBoyz have pulled their bids in after-hours trading, causing AAPL to surrender nearly the entire day's gains in the space of a few minutes. This feels to me likely a sleazy ploy to shake loose some shares before running them up again. But we should always book at least some of our gains reflexively no matter what we expect, since a buy-and-hold approach will necessarily be fraught with thrills, chills and spills that will play on our fears and doubts.

AAPL has trampolined $4, or 2.4%, after bottoming an inch from the 170.78 'Hidden Pivot' target I'd been drum-rolling here for the last week. The stock was trading near $190 at the time the target was first disseminated. Friday's low got close, hitting 171.85. But even when the stock opened higher on Monday, touching 175,  I repeated a warning that AAPL would still have to fall to 170.78 before it could turn around. This it did -- coincidentally during an online 'requests' session I was conducting for subscribers. Some of them were able to buy stock or call options and to book substantial profits later in the session as the stock shot higher with barely a correction. A Santa Dead-Cat Bounce? The turnaround could prove significant for the stock market as a whole, since, if AAPL has made a bottom of at least temporary importance, so have the broad averages. The stock's rally is still fragile, to be sure, but if were to continue for a few more days, exceeding a 181.47 peak recorded a week ago on the way down, we could confidently infer that the move is likely to get legs.  Even so, I would regard it as corrective and therefore unlikely to achieve new record highs. At best, it might energize buyers sufficiently to keep stocks buoyant for the rest of the year. I will remain open-minded to other possibilities nonetheless, even if the increasingly worrisome downturn in housing and autos is already ample reason for bulls to do a whole lot more correcting before they resume their wilding spree of the last nine years. AAPL will remain the best stock to follow for hints about what is coming, since the company is the most valuable in the world, and because its share are owned by nearly