Rick Ackerman

Monday's plunge was so exhilarating that permabears could be forgiven for making whoopee after the close. How soon we forget how extremely rare it is for the stock market to sell off for more than a couple of days!  In this instance the upturn came midway through day two, producing a sufficiently vigorous rally to suggest that some of the FAANG stocks could be at new record highs by week's end.  That wouldn't change the fact that institutional investors face some very serious headwinds if they intend to drag the broad averages to new highs as well. The negatives bear repeating, since they amount to more than just a wall of worry. To wit: 1) Fed 'tapering' is shrinking the world's supply of dollars even as the U.S. central bank continues to raise rates; 2) the housing market appears to have peaked, and we'll know soon whether corporate earnings have, too; 3) a global trade war actually seems possible; maybe Trump isn't just bluffing? 3) the price of  oil remains stubbornly high and is threatening to move above $70/barrel; 4) a strong dollar is undermining the profits of U.S. multinationals; 5) the magnitude of 'creative destruction' going on in commercial real estate is beyond anything classical economists could have imagined; and, 6) off-line retailers of every stripe, including even McDonald's, are struggling to keep profit margins from falling to zero. These things together may not add up to a hill of beans for portfolio managers who make their living throwing OPM at fewer than a dozen stocks, but those of us who have actual skin in the game can read the signs and prepare for a day of reckoning that is as certain as tomorrow's sunrise.

I've been dissing Netflix every chance I get, but the ferocity of today's take-no-prisoners rally commands respect.  If it were to continue for just one more day, the stock would be an inch from new record highs. The last surge missed a 426.82 target I'd flagged by $3.62, denying subscribers an easy chance to load up on put options at their lows. Even if we had done so, the opportunity to take profits proved short-lived -- just a couple of hours on Monday, actually, and that was it for bears' celebration. Now, I'd be eager to buy the stock if it pulls back to the 385.08 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in today's chart, but I doubt we'll be gifted with such a juicy play. If it comes, you can deploy a stop-loss as tight you please. _______UPDATE (June 27, 9:16 p.m. EDT): NFLX rally continued only into the opening minutes of the regular session, creating a nasty bull trap that sent the stock plummeting more than $20. The dance precisely at the midpoint pivot, 391.89, suggests the stock is now bound for at least 382.04, the secondary pivot, or to exactly D=372.19 if any lower.  Check out the latest Wednesday tutorial recording if you're registered for these classes, since it analyzes in detail the juicy 'counterintuitive' short that the deceptive -- to most others -- opening bars made easily possible._______ UPDATE (June 28, 5:01 p.m.): The Friday jackpot bet I'm suggesting in this stock will need feigned weakness on the opening, then a strong rally,  for the trade to work. Bid 0.55 for four June 29 405 calls, good for the first 20 minutes of the session only. You should check the chat room before the opening, since I may change my guidance. This is a highly speculative play, so

Amazon shares continued to recover with a sharp rally to follow Monday's v-shaped bounce, but buyers stalled just a hair below the selloff's gap-down opening price, 1702.25. There is going to be plenty of supply there, but we shouldn't underestimate the ability of AMZN's canny handlers to summon help getting past it from panic-stricken bears. Although I am skeptical that AMZN is headed to new all-time highs on this run-up, today's chart features a very bullish possibility nonetheless in the form of an 1843.92 target. A theoretical buy signal for a move to that number was triggered on Tuesday, but I'll go no further out on the limb than to mention that the 1745.12 midpoint pivot does not exactly look like an impossible dream from these levels. Just a little higher and it will become our minimum upside objective._______ UPDATE (June 27, 9:29 p.m.): Bulls will be licking their wounds when stocks open Thursday morning after getting sand-bagged by a short-squeeze opening today. The pattern shown, with a 1615.26 target, should be serviceable if you intend to trade this monster. _______ UPDATE (June 28, 4:36 p.m.):  Bid 1.10 for two June 29 1685 puts, good for the first 20 minutes of the session. Be sure to check the chat room five minutes before the opening, since things could change. This is a highly speculative bet, so you should be prepared to kiss your $240 goodbye. Click here for the chart.

The stock continued to recover with a sharp rally to follow Monday's v-shaped bounce, but buyers stalled just a hair below the selloff's gap-down opening price, 1702.25. There is going to be plenty of supply there, but we shouldn't underestimate the ability of AMZN's canny handlers to summon help getting past it from panic-stricken bears. Although I am skeptical that AMZN is headed to new all-time highs on this run-up, today's chart features a very bullish possibility nonetheless in the form of an 1843.92 target. A theoretical buy signal for a move to that number was triggered on Tuesday, but I'll go no further out on the limb than to mention the 1745.12 midpoint pivot does not exactly look like an impossible dream from these levels.

Monday’s powerful selloff in AMZN — the heart, soul and muscle of the bull market — did serious technical damage to the stock’s daily chart.  It’s been almost a year since we’ve seen a similar occurrence. That one led to a bull market that saw the company’s shares nearly double in price. However, at these heights, it seems extremely unlikely that this will recur. Over the last six months, I’ve repeatedly asserted that AMZN is the only stock we need watch to gauge the strength of the bull market. That still holds. The company has a huge presence in the retail sector, global reach and the savvy to dominate any market in which it chooses to play. If AMZN is at the beginning of a hellacious dive, then so are the broad averages. For a more detailed technical assessment, check out my latest update for AMZN in the tout below.  From a technical standpoint, it appears extremely unlikely that sellers are spent. Given the impulsive nature of today’s downthrust, a further implication is that the stock’s next big rally will be corrective and therefore a potential shorting opportunity. Even so, we shouldn’t expect the AMZN’s cunning sponsors to make it easy for us to pile on. Uh-Oh! ‘No Sign of Panic’ One further, distressing note: Today’s selling was far too calm to be climactic. The ARMS index, a very useful tool derived from the Advance/Decline line, sniffed no panic whatsoever in today’s plunge. This suggests very clearly that complacency still reigns. Although it is said they don’t ring a bell at the top, this may be as close to one as we’re going to get.

The futures are good bet to fall at least to the 2667.63 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' shown. Sellers tripped a theoretical short sale at 2731.81, pounding their way past this threshold with such force that it took a further fall of 30 points before they could pull out of the dive. The short squeeze that ensued was relatively feeble, recouping but a third of what had been lost since Sunday night. Bear in mind that a decisive breach of the 2667.73 pivot could send this brick all the way down to 2539.25 in search of traction. That would be equivalent to a nearly 2000-point fall in the Dow from current levels. Permabears should resist the urge to close out short positions completely, since even a single contract retained from these levels for a swing at the fences could be worth as much as $9000 per. Whatever happens, I'd suggest keeping your focus on minor, abcd downtrends if you want to gauge the strength of the selling in real time. Monday's selling, by smashing our 'd' targets the whole way down, telegraphed not only the exceptional nature of the day's decline, but yet more weakness to come. ______ UPDATE (June 26, 6:17 p.m. EDT): It was slim pickings for bulls and bears alike as the futures ratcheted higher within a narrow channel.  The pattern shown tripped a 'conventional' sell signal, but two others before it would have produced losses. I'll recommend staying on the sidelines unless you don't mind work-intensive 'camouflage' set-ups. That may be the best option unless the futures tiptoe up to around 2746.00 to set up a possible 'counterintuitive' short._______UPDATE (June 27, 9:37 p.m.): A relative newcomer to the chat room who goes by 'Huckle' spotted -- in real time --  the luscious 'counterintuitive' short shown in this chart.

The futures have been down as much as 17 points Sunday night, equivalent to a drop of about 140 points in the Dow.  Usually this sort of weakness means that the sleazeballs who work the night ship are trying to exhaust sellers, the better to run the futures up bears' old wazoo in order to profitably exit the contracts they've imbibed overnight, not necessarily eagerly.  That is undoubtedly the case at the moment, but sometimes even the sleazeballs get it wrong. They may not know until an hour or so before the opening bell whether fears stoked by overnight weakness are going to produce an avalanche of orders to sell-at-the-market. In any event, until such time as their calculations at this hour are overwhelmed, I'd suggest using the 2734.25 target shown as a minimum downside objective for the near term. Night owls should take note, since the bounce we might expect from that Hidden Pivot could take the form of a juicy 'counterintuitive' set-up for bottom-fishing.

Desperate to drum up business, America's largest theater chain has made a last-ditch offer to moviegoers:  Pay a monthly fee of just $19.95 to see up to three movies per week. This is a variation on MoviePass, which at one point offered four movies a month for under $10 at participating theaters. That may sound unbeatable, but it didn't stop AMC from trying. Their pass has fewer restrictions and better perks: discounts on food, no online booking fees, advance reservations for up to three movies without having to visit the theater, etcetera. Either offer is a no-brainer for customers, especially fans of the Marvel comic-book heroes who dominate movie fare these days. Teens and millennials who see each new Marvel film many times will save the most, albeit with dead zones between films that could last for months. (Marvel is hard at work solving this problem, by the way, producing more and more movies based on minor Marvel characters, sometimes even characters who have never appeared in a comic book.) Meanwhile, movie choices outside of the action-hero genre are likely to remain meager, and none of the other big studios will dare any longer to release even an action-hero franchise-film (i.e., Star Wars or Deadpool) in the U.S. or abroad within two weeks of the release of a competing Marvel picture. It is predictable that neither MoviePass nor AMC's new-and-improved version of it will succeed.  The AMC chain, with more than 8000 screens and not nearly enough 'product" to fill them, may be able to reduce operating losses and slow its rapid death spiral by selling more popcorn and beverages. But the current owners of MoviePass, Helios & Matheson Analytics [Nasdaq: HMNY], will bathe in red ink until the company goes bankrupt. Their business model was so badly conceived to

On a quiet day, we searched for trades mostly on the lesser charts, looking for ‘camouflage’ set-ups corroborated by charts of larger degree. As you will see, if you have your heart set on pulling the trigger no matter how poor the opportunities, you can always find a way on the 4-second bars. This session’s a good one if you’ve wondered how to pass the time when things get really slow.