Rick Ackerman

Traders thumbed their noses at G7 on Monday, pushing stocks higher even as G7 headlines made the threat of a global trade war seem palpable. Their indifference was so blatant that I am taking a contrarian view looking looking out 3-5 days. Specifically, the September contract would trip a 'counterintuitive' short if it falls to 2730.00, the green line. (Note: the trigger could migrate upward if the futures rally from here.) The signal would be especially enticing if this were to occur by Thursday or sooner. Because the trade would risk more than $3000 per contract initially, you should be thinking of an alternative entry tactic if the opportunity arises -- meaning either a 'mechanical' short or a 'camouflage' trade. Ask in the chat room at the appropriate time if you are uncertain about how to do this. ______ UPDATE (June 13, 4:21 p.m.): The week's price action thus far has slightly raised the short trigger to 2731.75. If you're game to try using camouflage to get short way ahead of the signal, I'd suggest using a camouflage set-up on the 5-minute chart or less, since the end-of-day selloff generated a robustly bearish impulse leg on the intraday charts. ________ UPDATE (June 14, 10:32 a.m.): With the futures in vertical mode this morning, there have been no set-ups for initiating a camouflage short of any consequence.The trade recommended above will remain viable, subject to possible adjustment if a somewhat higher high is recorded. _______ UPDATE (June 14, 9:21 p.m.): Traders spent most of the day giving back half of the modest gains short-covering had gifted them with in the first hour. The move was bullishly impulsive on the intraday charts nonetheless, so by all means  greet the day with a smile in your heart. If the futures move lower early in

I'd expected stocks to fall as the week began because of tariff-war fears raised by the G7 summit, but traders were clearly unfazed, pushing the Dow to a small net gain on Monday. At this point I'd rate the 25803 target shown a 90% shot to be hit within the next 3-5 days, if not sooner.  It has been aired here before, but last Wednesday's pop past the red line, a midpoint 'Hidden Pivot', all but guaranteed a successful finishing stroke. If there's a pullback first to the red line, that would generate a 'mechanical' buy signal with a 24,765 stop-loss. However, we can greatly reduce the entry risk by executing the trade 'camouflage'-style on the one-  or three-minute bar chart if the opportunity arises. A retracement to the green line -- unlikely, in my opinion -- would trip a mechanical buy signal even more compelling than the one detailed above. It would be so juicy, actually, that I could even see using options in DIA to play the expected reversal. Stay tuned to the chat room if you care. _______UPDATE (June 12, 6:04 p.m. EDT): Buyers will need to pick up the pace if they're going to push this brick to 25803 by week's end. One possibility is that the non-news due out from the Fed tomorrow will nevertheless goose the markets, leaving residual energy to finish out the week.  Another possibility is that the broad averages will remain comatose for longer than we might prefer._______ UPDATE (June 13. 4:52 p.m.): The session ended with a dive. If sellers follow through on Thursday, chances of the Indoos hitting 25803 over the near term will collapse. Indeed, the Dow could be on its way down to 23,298, a 1900-point fall, or even to 22,947. _______ UPDATE (June 14, 10:48 p.m.): 

News accounts of the G7 summit have been so dismal that one could begin to doubt Trump will have the tariff problem licked by July.  I'm holding to my prediction that he will, however, but it's going to take some artful dealing in the meantime to get it done.  Merkel called Trump's blunt rejection of a G7 communique "sobering and a bit depressing."  Is Trump just playing poker? Most surely. However, there is room for doubt as to whether Merkel is truly at the point of despair. It will come down to dollars in the end, and Trump would not have raised the bet if he weren't holding some good cards. Remember, he has already cut tariff deals with Australia, South Korea and Argentina. Europe was bound to dig in its heels deeper, since they really do hate the guy. But Merkel still has blood on her nose from the Iran deal. When Trump walked away from it, so did 400 German companies who evidently would rather do business with the U.S. than with Iran.  To be sure, Wall Street isn't going to like the news from Europe as the week begins. But don't rule out the possibility of a strong rally when Merkel and Canada's Trudeau eventually cave, as seems likely to me.

Netflix appears to be topping less than $1 from the 369.09 target shown. The stock is likely to at least struggle for altitude in the weeks ahead, since the Hidden Pivot resistance that has stopped it is so clear and compelling. If and when buyers return in droves, as they always have, look for the next bullish cycle to hit 426.82, an even more important Hidden Pivot that in my estimation has an 80% chance of being reached. This assessment is based on the ease with which buyers pushed past a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 349.02 that is associated with the target.   In the meantime, assuming the stock trades no higher than last week's 369.83 peak, a corrective dip to 310.12 would generate a 'mechanical' buy signal, stop 271.21. Since that trade implies initial risk of nearly $4000 per round lot, we'll want to convert the signal to a 'camouflage' set-up, reducing the ante by as much as 95%, if the opportunity should arise. The best place to keep on top of this in real time is in the Rick's Picks chat room, but any timely alert would also be sent to subscribers via email. Too Much Competition Notwithstanding the bullish technical picture, I consider NFLX to be the most overrated FAANG stock, priced too rich for the product it delivers. Compared to HBO, for one, Netflix content is second-rate. This is a matter of taste, I know, but a movie-lover could click past several hundred titles offered online by Netflix and not find a single one with an actor one has heard of, let alone one that is worth watching. As for the shows that Netflix has produced for subscribers, the supposed best of them -- House of Cards -- never rose to the level of Deadwood, The

Rick took the time to discuss the future of certain important securities such as the ES, CL, VXX, Sil, WN, and the US Bonds. He finished the hour with trading the DIA options.

It's probably just coincidence, but Facebook is the headliner in the latest social-media scandal sheet just as we were giving Zuckerberg & Company the benefit of the doubt (see the tout below). It would appear that the privacy of 14 million subscribers has been compromised due to the latest online SNAFU.  A software bug reportedly displayed their posts publicly even if they had intended to share them only with friends or a smaller audience.  Good thing Mom doesn't have a Facebook account.  Trouble is, Mom does have an account and checks it hourly, since not having one in this day and age is akin to not having fingerprints. The glitch reportedly lasted for 10 days in May -- enough time, presumably, to have caused at least a few of those affected some embarrassment if not their jobs. Facebook has begun notifying those who were outed, but probably not the old-fashioned way with a phone call. Can you imagine receiving such a call -- from a human, that is? It would be a public relations coup for the offending company, but the time and effort required would be equivalent to solving the Tower of Brahma puzzle.

It's been a while since I looked at Facebook's charts because, well, the stock was just too boring to care about for a few months. Zuckerberg was under fire for intruding so profitably on our privacy, and one might have gotten the impression from the news media that merely kowtowing to his critics would hurt Facebook's bottom line. In retrospect, with the stock once again in vertical mode and presumably headed into the ionosphere, we begin to understand that revenue growth was never even slightly endangered. Moreover, it seemed even at the time that most of his critics -- especially the dim bulbs and preening jackasses who sit in Congress -- were left clueless attempting to discover how Facebook actually mines data and turns it into gold. So are the rest of us, to be fair -- and of course there is the Brussels contingent, which will continue to extort too-big-to-leave-alone U.S. web-based interlopers with huge fines. Privacy Zealots But we should at least be able to recognize that none of us, even the most zealous advocates of 'privacy', will ever be able to gain a step ahead on Facebook so that we might impose constraints on them. Facebook has become so ingrained in our culture for a reason: the company knows pretty much everything about us.  For all intents and purposes, Zuckerberg and his squad are HAL 9000, the omniscient computer from Space Odyssey that turned evil. We can only hope that Zuckerberg is a nicer guy than HAL. And now to the technical picture.  Facebook shares look bound for the 199.78 target shown in the inset, and we shouldn't be surprised to see the stock stall there, or within pennies of it. But if it can close for two consecutive days above 199.78, or trade intraday at 206

Although AMZN's follow-through on Wednesday didn't have the wattage we were looking for to pull the stock market higher, the broad averages themselves provided a clear confirmation that they will continue their upward trek, at least for a while. I've provided a precise target at 25,803 that I am 90% certain will be reached, which would imply a further rally of exactly 657 points.  This presumably would be just an installment on the 300-point thrust I've projected for the S&P 500.  I am mentioning the lesser target because it looks like such a slam-dunk. It could be useful for traders, but also for doubters who may be skeptical about how much higher the bull could go before buyers are spent. If you are unfamiliar with Rick's Picks and have wondered how predictable the markets are, you might want to jot down the 25,803 target. Look for the rally not only to happen as predicted, but for price action at the target that could lend itself to trading against the trend. In my latest INDU 'tout' on the home page, I have detailed for trading purposes a 'mechanical' set-up that includes a bid and stop-loss that could be used in conjunction with DIA. If you don't subscribe but would like a peek, click here for a free, two-week trial subscription that will give you access to all features of Rick's Picks, including a chat room that draws gifted traders from around the world.