Rick Ackerman

AMZN has taken a big leap in after-hours trading, impelled by an announcement from Jeff Bezos that Prime membership recently exceeded 100 million. Remember when McDonald's sold its hundred-millionth hamburger?  Who knew that that number would eventually pale in comparison to the countless billions of burgers Mickey D would sell in the years and decades that followed?  Amazon would seem to be on the same track, destined to have every man, woman and child on Earth enrolled as a paid Prime member. Speaking as one myself, I'd rate it one of the best values out there.  I use the service so intensively, most particularly for free shipping, that I can't fathom how Bezos makes money on me. Maybe he isn’t — that, as the old joke goes, he loses a little bit on each transaction but makes up for it with…volume! The stock is currently trading $48 above Wednesday's closing price, which was $24 above Tuesday's closing price. Although the rally seems likely to adrenalize the broad averages, it raises serious doubts about whether the stock market can keep up with with AMZN's not infrequent wilding sprees.  Probably not.  But as I have continued to emphasize, the stock market can do no worse than move sideways as long as the shares of the world's most economically important company are moving higher.  Most immediately, if AMZN can exceed the 1576.65 peak labeled in the chart, it will shorten the odds of a further rally to new all-time highs. In fact, my minimum upside target at the moment, based on the Hidden Pivot Method, is actually higher than that: 1592.23. (Bulletin: Pivoteers may notice that the stock generated a 'mechanical' buy signal moments ago with a swoon to the green line.) I am skeptical that this kind of craziness can continue for

The stock market has been on autopilot all week, but permabears shouldn't give up hope quite yet on the possibility that Wall Street will have a massive coronary before the week ends.  Just in case, I've offered two jackpot bets in AMZN in the chat room.  Far from being on autopilot, the stock has acted as though someone put fire ants in its pants. Our put/call bets straddle the question of up or down, although it's hard to imagine a chart like the one shown producing a top, especially in the early going. It's Friday, and anything can happen. To borrow a famous line from the movies: "Jake, it's Chinatown".

Buyers sputtered out after having demolished a clear Hidden Pivot resistance at 2697.25 a day earlier.  The reversal probably would have been nastier if AMZN, moving boldly to the beat of a different drummer, hadn't spent the day shredding its way blithely higher.  The 2744.00 peak from March 21 noted here earlier remains crucial to the short-  to intermediate-term picture -- and the sooner it's exceeded, the more bullish the implications. Alternatively, if the weakness continues, look for the June contract to fall to the 2620.75 midpoint support shown here. Day-traders can bid 2621.00 for a single contract, stop 2619.75. ________ UPDATE (April 24, 3:08 p.m. EDT): Today's steep plunge slightly exceeded my target, hitting a so-far low of 2616.00. This would have stopped out the bottom-fishing trade for a theoretical loss of around $63.  Judging from chat room discussion, it would appear that subscribers were able to use the target for purposes other than buying against-the-trend -- staying out of harm's way during today's free-fall, perhaps, pr covering short positions.

I got cold feet in AMZN the other day when I canceled a promising ‘mechanical’ trade I’d drum-rolled a week earlier. Naturally, I bailed out just moments before the stock took off like a missile. In this presentation, I explain precisely where and how I went wrong. Pay close attention to the nuances and, at the end of the hour, I can promise that you will know nearly everything you will ever need to know about ‘mechanical’ trades: why they work; what characteristics define perfection; and how to manage risk, from start to finish.

The top story of the hour is that Trump supposedly will abandon talks with Kim Jong Un if they are 'not fruitful'. We wonder what kind of fruit the President has in mind.  We can all hope that any meeting between the two leaders produces a solemn pledge from Mr. Kim to join the community of nations.  How would we know if he's being truthful? For starters, he could open the door to a Buick dealership in Pyongyang. That's the kind of gesture Westerners would understand --would perhaps even trust, assuming the showroom is not operated by a Kim in-law.  Granted, business would be pretty slow for the first ten or twenty years. But once North Koreans get a taste of intermittent windshield wipers and Sirius XM radio, it would grease the entry track for Disney, Five Guys and Beyonce.  More likely, unfortunately, is that the first Avon lady to arrive on the scene would be arrested, tried for espionage and shot by a firing squad.

AMZN took off like a banshee on steroids Tuesday, topping within 25 cents of the 1506.94 target shown. The target had been disseminated in the Rick's Picks chat room several hours earlier, when the stock was trading $25 lower. Whether or not AMZN blows past this Hidden Pivot resistance will determine whether the broad averages are likely to achieve new all-time highs. Amazon, as I have continued to emphasize, holds the key to the bull market. It is capable of dragging the entire universe of stocks higher on a given day, or of holding them buoyant on days when fund managers are sitting on their thumbs.  Because the pattern yielding the 1506.94 target is so clear and compelling, the target should show some stopping power. However, if buyers blow past it without pausing for even a day, I'd infer that they are determined to test the 1575.97 peak shown in the chart. If it is easily exceeded, that would imply that new record highs are likely -- not just for AMZN, but for the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. This does not fit my scenario of rising interest rates and corporate earnings that may have peaked in Q1.  Either factor alone would be sufficient to turn the bull market leaden or even crush it. However, as a rule, I always heed my charts regardless of what I think, and that is what I plan to do now. ______ UPDATE (April 18, 6:27 p.m.): See my latest AMZN 'tout' below for an analysis of today's explosive, sequenced rally.

More white noise. Rallies like today's 212-pointer in the Dow barely register a blip on the intraday charts, let alone on the 'daily'.  From a technical standpoint, a thousand-point upthrust by week's end wouldn't change the big picture, although it might bring some bravado back to Wall Street for a moment or two.  Regardless, it all feels like distribution, and that feeling is certain to become palpable one day soon, when two dozen days' worth of piddling gains will be erased before East Coast traders get to their desks. For now, though, I'd suggest tuning out any guru who's saying "something BIG!" is about to happen.  Maybe. But if you bet on it, be sure you get long odds.

The futures ratcheted marginally higher last week, vexing traders of all stripes every step of the way.  It didn't matter whether you were a bull or a bear, a seller or buyer of straddles, a directional bettor or a delta-neutral rocket scientist, there were pitfalls and booby traps to bedevil even the most seasoned pros. Notice in the chart how the E-Mini S&Ps made a series of marginally higher highs over the course of the week. Although a bull could have profited in the end by simply staying long, this was a bad bet from a risk/reward standpoint. Notice how getting from one high to the next would have required weathering adverse swoons three to four times as large as the incremental gain achieved using a buy-and-hold strategy.  For better or worse, the new week promises at least a little more of the same. The 2697.25 rally target we've been using all along is still viable, although an easy move past it, or a two-day close above it, would strongly imply the rally will continue. _______ UPDATE (April 16, 4:58 p.m.): Yet more tedious ratcheting bought the futures to within 10 points of the 2697.25 target. It is sufficiently clear and compelling that I expect a pullback, possibly tradeable, from within 2-3 ticks of my number.  However, an easy and decisive move past the pivot, especially one that exceeds the 2744.00 'external' peak shown here, would suggest the uptrend may be about to steepen.________ UPDATE (April 17, 6:04 p.m.): Buyers barely paused at 2697.25, implying they have eyes for the 2744.00 benchmark I've noted above. If ES pulls back after slightly exceeding it, be alert to any 'camouflage' entry set-up that could occur thereupon.

We hold four Apr 20 31-32 call spreads for 0.25 that will expire on Friday. Although we had a chance to get out for 'even' after they nearly died, what fun would that have been?  Instead, we've stuck with the position for a couple of weeks through thick and thin -- mostly the latter -- and now find that we have a horse in the race as it comes down to the wire.  The spread closed @ 0.35 on Friday, and I am still suggesting that you offer half of the position to close for 0.50, saving the remaining two spreads for an expiration-day play. Keep in mind that the spread cannot trade for more than 1.00, which would represent a quadrupling of our initial stake, and that you should not hesitate to exit for 0.8o or more unless the stock pops, big-time, above 32.50. However, you can uncap the upside by simply covering the short 32 calls at any time. If you can do this for no more than 0.05.-0.10, especially with SIL trading above 31 before Wednesday afternoon, you shouldn't hesitate. _______ UPDATE (April 18, 10:42 a.m. EDT):  Finally, SIL popped, trading as high today as 32.05 so far.  The spread was an easy sale for 0.55 and could have fetched as much as 0.80, implying that any subscriber who did the trade would have at least doubled, or possibly tripled, his or her money.  If you covered the short 32 call for a nickel earlier in the week as I'd suggested and as was easily possible, the remaining position -- naked long 31 calls -- is worth about 1.00 at the moment, implying a near quadrupling of your initial bet.  If you still hold any calls, I'd suggest saving a couple of them till Friday, since today's