Rick Ackerman

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On Monday I'd hung out 24,042 as a good place to try tightly-stopped bottom fishing in the Indoos; however, sellers crushed this midpoint Hidden Pivot support, implying the Dow will be headed significant lower after the current bounce ends.  My latest update for INDU suggests a way to leverage this scenario, but it would take a robust rally to set up the trade. If you care, stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time.

Sellers shredded the 24,042 midpoint support I'd flagged here yesterday so easily that there should be little doubt about the likelihood of a further fall to the 23,225 target.  In retrospect, we can see that the Indoos were a fetching 'counterintuitive' short at the green line (24,450). If they should rally back to it, keep in mind that that would trigger a equally enticing 'mechanical' short. We'll interpolate using DIA puts if and when the opportunity arises, but for now let's move to the sidelines. _______ UPDATE (April 26, 9:57 p.m. EDT): Today's 238-point rally looked leaden in comparison to the ballistic moves that were occurring in AMZN and a couple of other institutional favorites at the same time.  It illustrates the point I made in The Morning Line -- i.e., that the broad averages will no longer be able to keep up with lunatic-powered rallies in the small handful of stocks that have tugged the market higher. AMZN et al. may continue for a while to make new record highs, but the bullish effect this will have on other stocks has probably peaked.

Tuesday's steep dive bottomed at 2616.00, just beneath the 2620.75 Hidden Pivot support we'd been using since last week as a minimum downside target. I'd suggested bottom-fishing a single contract there, but the trade would have been stopped out quickly for a theoretical loss of around $63. The futures have since bounced a feeble 21 points, but my hunch is that DaBoyz will try to take them at least somewhat higher overnight in order to squeeze a few extra dollars from bears who don't know when to sit back and relax.  The 2526.50 downside target is in play but not yet an odds-on bet to be achieved, since the penetration of the midpoint pivot (p=2622.50) so far has been merely slight._______ UPDATE (April 25, 8:35 p.m. EDT):  A rally to x=2670.50 would trigger a 'mechanical' short, but I have no energy for doing so, since it could require holding the position overnight. We'll look for a way to 'convert' the signal to camouflage during regular hours on Friday, but until then I'll suggest watching from the sidelines. _______UPDATE (April 26, 5:07 p.m.): A few subscribers struggled to stay short from around 2670.50, so I'll repeat this post from the chat room: "I must re-emphasize that 2670.50 is not a swing point, and shorting there is not the same as shorting at a p or D Hidden Pivot resistance. Under the simple rules of the mechanical trade, we short there knowing the futures can rally all the way up to C (in this case 2718.50) without stopping us out. That implies nearly $2000 of initial risk per contact. Unless you are willing to accept that risk there is no point in shorting there MECHANICALLY. If you want to cut the risk down to size, you should use the mechanical signal to

A strong rally has brought yields on the 10-Year Note within easy reach of the 3.11% target first aired here in December, when the rate was hovering around 2.35%.  It's remarkable that the U.S. economy and the stock market appear to have survived the rally, although it's possible that by June both could be headed into the tank. It's difficult to predict exactly how much tightening they'll be able to withstand, but a push above 3.00% would surely test bulls' resolve.  Moreover, a further move exceeding 3.22% would trip a Hidden Pivot alarm implying the uptrend could have significantly further to go. It won't be long before we are able to determine how likely this is. A few of the usual high-profile imbeciles have pointed out that the economy has done okay with interest rates at much higher levels.  That may be true, but never after rates had been held near zero for so long. As things stand, a rate of "just" 4% would probably be enough to trigger a deflationary implosion capable of wreaking havoc on all of the Fed's delicate, misbegotten plans.

It was back in December, when rates on the Ten-Year Note were hovering around 2.35%, that I first projected a move to as high as 3.11%.  Now, just a small turn of the screw will satisfy that target.  Some seers have said that anything above 3.00% will turn the economy to sludge, but I'd prefer to see a little higher -- perhaps 3.25% -- before I blow taps for the aging bull market. Notice the 'external' peak at 3.22% near the leftmost edge of the chart. If it is surpassed by the same upthrust that reaches our 3.11% target, the move would be warning bond bulls to stay out of the way. It would refresh the impulsive energy of the weekly chart, implying significantly higher yields and lower prices for T-Bonds and Notes. ________ UPDATE (May 20, 6:53 p.m.): The Ten-Year rate has pulled back, moderately so far, after topping last week within 0.05 points of the minimum upside target I drum-rolled here six months ago.  It may be a little while before we can determine whether the top will turn out to be a very important one, but my gut feeling is that still higher rates are coming -- enough to put a good choke-hold on the U.S. economy. _______ UPDATE (June 11): Recent price action in this vehicle on the daily chart has signaled a second leg down, presumably to at least 2.81%, the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot. As always, crucial support lies precisely at this level, and its decisive breach would raise the odds of more slippage to d=2.63%.

AMZN has reversed direction from within a millimeter of the 1502.06 target shown. Although in theory this was a good spot to have staked out a long position against the trend, that doesn't necessarily imply the stock is now headed into the wild blue yonder. In fact, according to the Hidden Pivot Method, strong bull moves give way to corrections that typically reverse from at or near the midpoint support of CD legs.  In this case, the correction crushed the midpoint and fell straightaway to d=1502.06. We won't presume the worst, at least not yet, but we should be prepared for a weak rally on Tuesday. Specifically, we'll be looking for the uptrend to fail just shy of the 1532.50 peak recorded Monday on the way down. It is easily visible on the 10-minute chart and would make a temping 'a' high for a counterintuitive short. _______ UPDATE (April 24, 5:50 p.m.):  The royally privileged scumballs who manipulate this stock for a living were at their quasi-criminal best Tuesday when they goosed AMZN to 1539.79 on the opening bar, somewhat exceeding the short-able peak I'd noted above, before pulling the plug. Bulls were trapped badly as AMZN began a 91-point dive that commenced, shamelessly, less than a minute after the bell. Here's the chart, if you're curious about how badly early-morning buyers got hosed. The odd thing is that the plunge did not exceed even a single prior 'external' low on the hourly chart, meaning the move was not bearishly impulsive.  That would require a print surpassing 1424.52 to the downside.  Let's see what the Masters of the Universe do next.________ UPDATE (April 25, 8:50 p.m.): They trapped bears badly, is what the Masters of the Universe did. With a bold shakedown on the opening bar, DaBoyz jettisoned the last,

The U.S. Dollar Index has perked up, generating the first impulse leg of daily-chart degree in more than four months. The rally would look even more impressive if it exceeds Monday's 90.99 high by just two ticks, surpassing an additional peak on the daily chart that was recorded back in mid-January. It's too early to get excited, however, since the uptrend has barely created a blip on the long-term charts. That's the chart I've displayed for today in order to keep things in perspective. If you're looking for the move that would break the back of the bear market begun in January 2017 from 103.82, set the bar at 97.87, where a small but technically important 'external' peak was made ten months ago on the way down. Regardless, we can put our doubts aside as long as we remain focused on the hourly chart. At that level, DXY's upward spasm looks mildly impulsive and even encouraging. If the dollar is in fact embarking on a major rally, everything is about to change -- and I mean everything. A strong dollar would surely flatten exports, raising trade-war paranoia to a shrill crescendo. But the main effect would be deflationary in that it would tighten the noose around the throats of all who owe dollars.  Could the stock market move higher in such an environment?  Stranger things have happened, but it seems most improbable.________ UPDATE (May 1, 10:15 p.m. EDT):  The Dollar Index is just shy of breaking out above an important 'external' peak at 92.64. A rally exceeding this peak, which was recorded in January ahead of a steep decline, would create a robust new impulse leg of daily-chart degree. It would also shorten the odds that any weakness in the dollar thereafter would be bullishly corrective rather than a resumption

There's just one important event on the economic calendar this week:  AMZN earnings due out after the close on Thursday. The 'experts' are predicting $1.27 per share, but we know enough not to care whether the retailer beats their dart-board forecasts or not. Far more important is whether the lunatic juices are flowing on Wall Street at the moment the earnings are announced. The Street's state of mind is unpredictable, of course, but we'll nevertheless be able to get a good 'read' on AMZN based on how it reacts to the news. If the stock pushes above the two peaks shown, the higher of which lies at 1590.00, that would be bullish for the stock market as a whole, since AMZN is by far the most important bellwether for U.S. economic activity. Alternatively, if AMZN fails to exceed both peaks this week, that would be quite bearish for stocks. It's that simple.