Rick Ackerman

AAPL, a key stock market bellwether, has been on a tear this week and tripped a buy signal on Tuesday at 153.36. It will face crucial resistance at 157.57, and, depending on how well buyers do when they take on this midpoint Hidden Pivot, we could see reliable evidence that they intend on pushing the stock as high as 165.97, which would be a new record. For further details, check out my tout below and the chart that accompanies it. If you don’t subscribe, click here for a free two-week trial that will allow you to see the tout, and also to enter the Rick’s Picks chat room, where great traders from around the world swap timely ideas 24/7.

AAPL has tripped a nice-looking 'counterintuitive' buy signal with a push past the green line (see inset). As such, it is now no worse than an even-odds bet to get to at least p=157.57, the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. Is the stock headed to new all-time highs?  We'll be better able to judge once we've seen how buyers fare at 157.57. As always, a decisive move through a 'p' resistance on the first attempt would be a reliable sign that its corresponding 'D' target, in this case 165.97, is likely to be achieved._______ UPDATE (Oct 4, 6:58 p.m.):  The stock is having trouble generating bullish impulse legs even on the hourly chart.  It'll take a pop exceeding the 156.20 peak shown, but any rally short of that deserves no claim on our attention._______ UPDATE (Oct 9, 10:08 p.m.): The stock exceeded the 156.2o peak by 53 cents, generating a bullish impulse leg.  It's not a very impressive one, though, and the only trade I can recommend would be a 'counterintuitive' entry following a pullback to within a few pennies of the 152.91 low recorded on 10/4.________ UPDATE (Oct 10, 7:27 p.m.): The stock slightly penetrated the 157.57 midpoint resistance shown in the chart, but I'd like to see a two-day close above it, or a print at 159.00 or higher intraday, before I infer that a run-up to 165.97 is a good bet. _______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 11:12 p.m.): Today's bear-trap opening left shorts badly on the ropes, shortening the odds that AAPL will eventually make it to 165.97.  A push today exceeding the 160.97 'external' peak recorded on Sep 15 would all but clinch it as far as I'm concerned._______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 8:18 p.m.): The jury is still out, buyers having stalled at 160.87, a dime shy

At the moment, there's a discussion in the Rick's Picks chat room concerning the Mini-Nasdaq, so I've decided to see what it's up to tonight. A subscriber who goes by the handle 'Limey' reported that he'd laid out some shorts on Wednesday at the red line, a Hidden Pivot midpoint that was nicely situated -- i.e., in the middle of nowhere -- to repel bulls, if perhaps only for a short while.  Will it be a winner? Well, let's just say that the gain it has produced so far for shorts, as much as $600 per contract at the correction low, strikes me as a good opportunity to take the money and run.  In any event, the stop-loss is a no-brainer: at 5952.45, where the December contract would be in good position to set up a mechanical 'buy' off this pattern.  _______ UPDATE (Sep 29, 5:37 p.m.): Thursday's thrashing around left a tedious inside day on the intraday charts, albeit within a minor bullish pattern that projects to a Hidden Pivot target at D=5965.50.  A move to that number will become an odds-on bet if buyers can push this flivver past the 5938.40 midpoint resistance. But don't be impressed unless 'D' gives way as well, and if you've made money on the way up, I would strongly recommend using your profit to cushion a short from D, stop 5970.

AMZN is currently trading 186 points, or 13%, beneath the 1083.31 record high that I had projected to-the-penny before the stock first cracked 1000 on the way up. Since then, traders have been erecting a head-and-shoulders pattern that even I, ever skeptical of patterns that one can find everywhere one chooses to look for them, would have to concede is a real looker. A drop off its right edge could be expected to send AMZN into the $750-$850 range. At that point it'll be interesting to see what kind of garbage DaBoyz rotate their seemingly infinite supply of Other People's Money into. Somehow, one suspects, they'll never lack for places to blow bubbles. Even so, a continuation of the bull market is difficult to foresee with AMZN, possibly joined by AAPL, in the dumpster.  Since we don't want to be constrained or disadvantaged by the vagueness of H&S targets, let me offer one at 853.02 if the stock trashes the midpoint support at 926.51 (see inset). As always, precise interplay with the higher number for a few days or longer would confirm the pattern itself and its target. _______ UPDATE (Sep 28, 12:01 a.m.):  AMZN has taken a promising leap from p=926.51 (click here for chart), a perfectly logical spot for a major reversal if bulls are going to turn things around in a serious way.  Odds of this happening will shorten if and when the rally starts surpassing prior peaks on the hourly chart. The closest lies at 973.40.  Let's set a screen alert there and for now just watch. _______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 7:37 p.m.): Okay, buyers have pushed past a few easy peaks. Let's raise the bar now so that we don't mistake a bear rally for the real McCoy. Specifically, I'll suggest setting a screen alert

The stock market's gratuitous price swings have become so tedious and exhausting lately that it would be tempting for serious market-watchers and traders to take a month off. Mr. Market is surely trying to tell us something, but exactly what may lie beyond a rational person's patience and understanding. My gut feeling is that the bull market begun in 2009 is in its death throes, unable to make headway against grave political and economic uncertainties that should have killed buyers' enthusiasm long ago. And yet, if one were to focus on the prospect of a mass repatriation of corporate cash being hoarded overseas by U.S. multinationals, it is not farfetched to imagine the Dow at 30,000. In any event, all that we as traders and investors can do in the meantime is hope to catch a gust now and then that pushes stocks into a trend that was mildly foreseeable. It's not much to ask -- but then, answering prayers was never Mr. Markets specialty.

AAPL, our key stock-market bellwether, turned ferociously higher from within a dime of a 149.06 correction target I'd sent out to subscribers the night before. The move created an easy opportunity for several chat-roomers who reported that they'd been able to get aboard with call options just as the stock was bottoming. However, as noted in my latest update for the stock, the steep rally failed to generate a bullish impulse leg, even on the lowly on the 5-minute chart.  We can go with the flow nonetheless, but it should be with the awareness that, for an ostensibly bullish stock, AAPL has been behaving mighty funny.

We had a stink bid in at the opening, but gold's ebullient leap from well above it left us choking on dust as we played spectator for the remainder of the day. The chart (see inset) shows a subtle but very compelling rally target at 1320.50, and I have little doubt the futures will get there. However, if the rally is going to suck in more bullish buying, it will need to impale D=1320.50, the more brutally the better.  Today we'll just watch, learn and plan. _______ UPDATE (Sep 26, 4:38 p.m.): Wow! A more compelling demonstration of 'Matt's Curse' could not be found than yesterday's wicked reversal in gold. It occurred precisely at the p2 'secondary' Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown in this chart.  Then, just as subscriber and intrepid bullion-trader Matt's theory holds, after hitting p2 almost exactly, December Gold turned tail, eventually crashing the 'C' low. I'd thought a rally to the 'D' target was a lock-up when the tout above went out Monday night. For now, though, and especially when forecasting precious-metal futures, I will be paying closer attention to price action at p2, since it has become a notoriously treacherous spot for gold and silver trading vehicles. ________ UPDATE (Sep 27, 8:31 a.m.): December Gold's bombed out low this morning fell within three ticks of the D target of this pattern on the 480-min (and others) chart: A = 1319.80 on 9/20; B= 1291.20 on 9/21. If 'D' fails badly as support, 1270.20 would be the next stop. ________ UPDATE (Sep 28, 5:59 p.m.): The (corrected) 1270.20 target remains valid (click here), but bulls will have a fighting chance if they can push this brick above 1292.00 on Friday.

It's been a while since I looked at the Dow, but there's no mistaking the 22,500 rally target, an important Hidden Pivot that lies a tad more than 200 points above. It should produce a precisely tradeable top when it's hit, given the bull market's intimate dance on two separate occasions with the 22,050 midpoint resistance (p) shown here as a red line. Moreover, when buyers finally blew past the line with a decisive leap on 9/11, they signaled their ability to push this gas-bag all the way to D=22,500. In the meantime, the best buying opportunity I could foresee would take place at the 'p' midpoint support of the small, still-developing downtrending abc pattern shown at the rightmost edge of the chart._______ UPDATE (Sep 26, 4:53 p.m.): Today's action was bullish but unimpressively so, since all the very fleeting rally accomplished was to notch a new impulse leg on the lesser intraday charts. Wake me on Wednesday if anything happens. _______ UPDATE (Sep 28, 12:04 a.m.): The Indoos have been consolidating above a secondary pivot at 22,275 (click here for chart), suggesting that the 22500 target noted above is all but guaranteed to be hit. I strongly doubt it will be exceeded on the first try, however, so traders should plan on getting short there, perhaps using DIA put options. The Dow is on a mechanical buy signal at the moment, though, and if you are long for the move to 22500 as you should be, you can use some of your profits to cushion the stop when you go short.

The broad averages flatlined all week, punctuated by a few moments of silliness and hysteria on Wednesday when the Fed announced...well, what was it they announced?  Whatever the banksters promised, or perhaps threatened, traders will likely put it behind them when Wall Street's carnival midway re-opens for business on Monday. Meanwhile, with one foot on the fire escape, I've drum-rolled a 2524 rally target in the E-Mini S&Ps that would equate to a 200-point rally in the Dow.  If it is easily surpassed, that would bring into play a Dow target above 23000 that I first broached here eons ago. Seems the wall of worry is working, with the latest, brazen threats from Kim Jong Un-sane having the same effect on the bull market as a sandstorm in the Gobi Desert.