Rick Ackerman

A bearish target at 1270.20 has kept us on the right side of the trend. But with the futures currently within a few ticks of our number, it's time for a new one: 1256.50.  This is little stuff, for sure, but make no mistake, it will always be useful to know: 1) exactly how far the trend is likely to go, minimum; and 2) how much resistance the target is likely to offer. In this case, a drop to at least 1256.50 over the next few days seems all but certain; a tradeable bounce from within a few ticks of it almost as certain. This gambit will be catch-as-catch-can:  Trade 'em however you like, but with the conviction that the target above is going to work like magic. _______ UPDATE (Oct 3, 9:25 p.m. EDT): A moderate rally was continuing into the night session, promising to deliver 1278.80 (click here for chart). Let's wait and see how buyers handle this Hidden Pivot resistance, since they'll need to push past it with ease to suggest they're ready for significantly more. The big-picture  target you shouldn't lose sight of lies at 1462.70 (daily chart, A= 1073.00, 12/31/15). Traders please note: A pullback to the green line (x) of the big pattern would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal at 1220.60, stop 1139.60. __________UPDATE (Oct 4, 5:46 p.m.):  Buyers delivered 1285.00, somewhat more than we'd asked of them.  But because they gave more than half of the gains, the burden of proof is still on the bulls. If they can push this brick above 1293.20, a peak recorded a week ago on the way down, that would be a mildly encouraging step in the right direction. _______ UPDATE (Oct 5, 7:15 pm.): Easy come, easy go. But then, we've grown accustomed by now to

Are we unanimously agreed that, on any given day, odds are quite good that the stock market will continue to move higher? It sure feels that way, regardless of whether one is a hardcore bull or a diehard permabear. But that's the way we're supposed to feel come October, right? If you are among the latter, check out my touts below for the E-Mini S&Ps and VXX, since they offer a ray of hope in the form of Hidden Pivot targets capable of reversing the trend.

The pattern shown suggests an easy move ahead to at least 2548.50, and I'll recommend trading this vehicle with a bullish bias until such time as the target is reached. A pullback to the red line, a Hidden Pivot midpoint, would generate a 'mechanical' buying opportunity that would require a stop-loss at 2506.00. Since the approximately $500 entry risk is more than we typically abide, I'll further suggest -- if you know what you're doing -- that you 'convert' the mechanical entry signal into a 'camouflage' trigger by executing the trade on a chart of much smaller degree (i.e., the one-  or three-minute.)  Stay tuned to the chat room for further guidance if the trade sets up as I've detailed and you're uncertain how to proceed. Alternatively, if ES should fall to the green line in the first half of Tuesday's session, you can do the 'mechanical' trade straightforwardly with a 2500.75 bid, stop 2484.75._______ UPDATE (Oct 3, 9:40 p.m.): There was no gracious pause Tuesday to accommodate stragglers, suggesting the lazy man's approach will not get us aboard. (Very) short-term, the only spot that looks interesting to me is the 2534.75 target of the pattern shown. Rather than shorting it, I'll suggest spectating, since the ease (or lack of it) with which buyers push past it can tell us how much trend strength is percolating beneath the surface._______ UPDATE (Oct 4, 6:03): The 2534.75 pivot gave way easily as the futures ascended to an intraday high at 2538.00. They went on to close above the resistance, leaving little doubt that still higher prices are coming. I expect the 2548.50 pivot noted above to cap the rally briefly and produce a tradable pullback, but we should always be ready for more upside without pause. If it comes, there's a daunting

The broad averages proved nearly untradeable last week -- a series of tiny daily gains punctuated in each instance by a nasty swoon.  DaBoyz were clearly intent on marking up stocks to end the quarter, and woe to any bear who got in their way.  We did, very briefly, with very tightly stopped shorts in DIA and the E-Mini S&Ps that allowed us to test the water without risking much. My E-Mini S&P tout for Monday advised a short that has triggered Sunday night. There is a $200 gain per contract in the position at the moment, so night owls should check my latest update for further guidance.

The E-Mini Nasdaq has shredded its way past some moderately important Hidden Pivot resistance points and is now a good bet to reach another at 6022.94, provided it can escape the gravitational pull of one at 5962 that capped Friday's rally. The pattern shown is of a larger order of magnitude, however, and it leaves room for a move to as high as 6114.75 if the futures should push decisively above the pattern's secondary pivot (shown here as a pink line at 5979.81).  We shouldn't expect precise resistance at this level, but it would nonetheless become a spot to attempt a 'mechanical' buy if the December contract pulls back to it after having exceeded it decisively (i.e., via a move to 6030 or higher).  I am not proffering the 6114.75 target as a surefire place for a Mother of all Tops, by the way, since there are two problems with the pattern itself: 1) There are potential point 'A' lows beneath and preceding the one I've chosen; and 2) price action at the 5844 midpoint pivot has not been as precise as we should prefer. In any event, 6144.75 can still serve as a minimum upside objective, assuming the conditions I have noted are met. Also, we should expect a tradeable pullback from it if it is reached. _______ UPDATE (Oct 3, 9:56 p.m. EDT): This vehicle is tradeable, but only if you're comfortable skiing the expert slopes. Intraday price action has been too erratic for me to put out usable entry instructions the night before. _______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 9:31 a.m.):  Ahead of the opening bell, the futures have exceeded the 6114.75 target we've been using by (so far) a single tick. Please note that the weekly chart allows for 6119.25 (A= 5365.75 on 5/14), or even 6161.00 (A=

When last week ended, the futures were headed into the wild blue yonder, trading several points above where I'd suggested shorting a single contract. The trade would have produced a loss of about $50, a relatively small sum to risk trying to leverage so compelling a target. The new one shown, at 2522.25, looks somewhat less appealing because there are three possible choices for the pattern's point A.  They produce a succession of rising targets at, respectively, 2520.00, 2522.25 and 2523.35.  As a one-size-fits-all trade, I'll suggest shorting a single contact at 2523.00, stop 2524.25. The main risk here is not getting steam-rollered, but of missing the trade because ES has turned from below our target. As always, the best way to neutralize this risk is to set up the trade on the one- or three-minute chart in 'camouflage' fashion.  If you are comfortable with this tactic and you're going to trouble yourself to use it, you should start looking for the 'camo' opportunity once ES hits 2519.75. This is a relatively low-risk way to try to catch a potentially important top. The odds will never be with us on this particular bet, but I am suggesting it anyway because of a gut feeling I have that the stock market's amazing run-up is near an end.  For an option-based play, check out my latest tout for DIA elsewhere on the home page. ________ UPDATE (Oct 1, 10:35 p.m.): The short I advised above is working perfectly Sunday night but it will need some close attention. The high so far this evening was 2523.50, leaving us three ticks to spare on the five-tick (!) stop-loss I'd  recommended.  The futures have fallen five points since to a so-far low at 2518.25. Cover half the position now -- and use a 2523.75 stop-loss

The 'jackpot' put bets I'd suggested for Friday failed to trigger, but we'll keep trying. Specifically, we can revert to an original rally target at 224.73 for purposes of getting short.  I'll suggest using near-the-money puts with a life span of no more than 7-10 days, since we are looking to catch a top very precisely both in price and time. This trade should be done with DIA 224.59 or higher.  If the trade sevens out, we have one more promising Hidden Pivot resistance to short -- at 225.71. A run-up to that number would become an odds-on bet if DIA closes above the 224.73 pivot or trades more than about 0.25 above it intraday. _______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 10:43 p.m.): Buyers shredded the 224.73 Hidden Pivot, but I'll suggest trying again at 225.71 with a small put purchase.  Stop yourself out if the options lose 25% of their value. _______  UPDATE (Oct 3, 8:37 a.m.): DIA's pre-opening short-squeeze precisely to my target will make the put buying strategy I'd advised tricky. To simplify, let me recommend placing a stink bid of 0.35, with 0.05 of discretion,  for two Oct 13 225 puts, good only for the first 15 minutes of the session. This is akin to a 'jackpot bet,' since DIA will either reverse from the 225.71 target...or not. My goal is not to make a pile of money, but simply to have some skin in the game at a promising HP target, so that the relentlessly boring bull market will at least seem slightly interesting for a day or two. _______ UPDATE (Oct 3, 10:02 p.m.): We missed buying the puts by a mile because of an error in my instructions, but this turned out to have been a good thing. For now, let's stay away from puts

We attempted some cautious bottom-fishing Friday on-the-cheap at a promising Hidden Pivot support, only to see it obliterated by yet another day of asphyxiating tedium. For our immediate purposes, we'll stick with the more important Hidden Pivot at 35.48 shown. It will take about 2-3 weeks to be reached if the broad averages continue to trend steadily higher, although I have my doubts that such a sustained move is in the offing. More likely, in my estimation, would be a spike caused by a fleeting stock-market selloff, followed by a precipitous collapse in VXX to the target shown. In any event, we won't try bottom-fishing again until such time as this very compelling target (i.e., 35.48)  is reached. For tracking purpose, based on chat-room reports, I'll assume four Oct 6 calls held for an average 0.50. If you did better or worse, please let me know in the chat room. For now, the options are keepers, come what may.______ UPDATE (Oct 4, 6:47 p.m.): Barring a miracle, the calls are about to go out worthless for a $200 loss. We'll stay focused for now on the next possible bottom-fishing opportunity: 35.48.

Even stocks that rallied Thursday looked heavy, suggesting they are in distribution.  AMZN (click on inset) was one of them -- up $6 on the day but unable to punch through a thin band of supply created a week ago before the stock went over the falls. If it pops through today, bears had better take cover.  In the meantime, I've put out out some actionable plays that could trigger if shares open moderately to strongly higher. Check my chat room posts around 18:35 for specific guidance. If you don’t subscribe, click here for a free two-week trial that will allow you to see the tout, and also to enter the Rick’s Picks chat room, where great traders from around the world swap timely ideas 24/7.