Rick Ackerman

I'd suggested shorting 227.88 but will now recommend that you attempt it at the 228.44 target shown. This is two cents higher than the target given here previously, which was slightly miscalculated. You should focus on near-the-money put options that expire in five to twelve days, since we expect them to go in-the-black more or less instantly when DIA reverses as expected from the 228.44 target.  This is not certain, of course, but the bet looks very appealing to me. _______ UPDATE (Oct 10, 8:22 a.m.): The 228.44 target came within a penny of nailing today's so-far high, which came on an opening-bar spike. DIA has since dropped to 227.64, allowing an easy and obvious profit-taking opportunity. What have you done? Your reports will be appreciated, since I'll need to determine what sort of tracking position to establish in order to provide further guidance._______ UPDATE (Oct 10, 6:54 p.m.): Since subscriber reports have been varied, I'll make a one-size-fits-all recommendation: Stop yourself out of any puts you hold if they trade for 25% less than you paid for them. The order is good through Wednesday, since I do NOT want to get stopped out for mere reasons of time decay with DIA trading below the 228.43 target. ______ UPDATE (Oct 11, 4:56 p.m.): DIA finished slightly above the target, implying that any put positions held at the close remain tied to a stop-loss within your comfort zone. If you're planning to stick it out to the last painful uptick, use the 228.78 target shown to calibrate your stop. ________ UPDATE (Oct 12, 9:34  p.m.): DIA topped Thursday at 228.81, three ticks above the "max" rally target given above. If you held onto some puts, tie them to a 228.82 stop-loss and report your position in the chat room so that

There are some potentially important rally targets in some popular vehicles we track. Although we try to avoid getting seduced by the prospect of catching the Mother of All Tops, laying out tightly stopped shorts at key Hidden Pivot resistance points will always be too great a temptation to pass up, especially since these trades have produced at least small profits perhaps 75% of the time. Being wrong needn't be costly, as many Rick's Picks subscribers have discovered, and it can sometimes produce gains if one's timing is perfect.

There is much to like in the pattern shown. For starters, the midpoint pivot at 22,563 is located nicely in the middle of nowhere, just the way we like 'em. That means a particularly easy move past it could be confidently expected to hit D=22,907 at least.  The red line is tempting to short, since it looks solid enough to repel an initial barrage, no matter how fierce. But if it instead melts away, that would all but ensure a finishing stroke to 22,907.  That number could be reached in a week if the uptrend accelerates for another day or two. _______ UPDATE (Oct 3, 8:38 p.m. EDT): Buyers chomped through the 22563 pivot identified above in no time, staying well on track to hit 22907. There is just one additional hidden resistance worth noting at this point: 22735, the pattern's 'secondary' Hidden Pivot. It can serve for now as a minimum upside target.  I will signal if this vehicle trips a 'mechanical' buy signal at either x or p in perhaps 4 to 6 days, so be sure to check 'Email Notifications' on your account page if you want to stay apprised in real time._______ UPDATE (Oct 8, 6:30 p.m.): The Dow made no headway on Friday, but because it finished near the top of its range following a shallow pullback, bulls would appear to be well. ________ UPDATE (Oct 9, 5:46 p.m.): A dead day. It suggests there is zero buying power, at least on the surface. I will hazard no prediction for Tuesday, since it looks like a coin-toss at the moment.

Buyers who followed my 'jackpot bet' guidance in the chat room Friday got sandbagged, paying a relatively lofty price for Oct 6 175 puts. As is my custom, I will record the worst actual price reported by a subscriber -- 0.80 -- as my cost basis for the trade. The stock gave up most of its gains by the end of the session, but this still left puts bought for 0.80 underwater.  Since we were prepared to lose everything on this highly speculative bet, I'll recommend holding the position until Friday.  Just in case the options pop, you should offer half of the position (i.e., two puts) to close for 1.60, good till-canceled. Concerning the stock, Friday's price action left me with no strong feelings either way._______ UPDATE (Oct 2, 4:24 p.m.): NFLX got thumped today, allowing subscribers who paid as much as 0.80 for Oct 6 175 puts on Friday to double their money when the options traded as high as 1.60 toward the end of the session.  Officially we still hold two puts from an original four. I'd originally recommended the sale of two puts for 1.60 (see above), but sent out an intraday alert to sell them at-the-market.  At the time, they were trading for around 1.53-1.58.  Long-time subscribers will know that I always try to 'double out' on half of any profitable option position as soon as possible. In this instance, however, I did not want to subject everyone's puts to the 1.60 price that applied to the worst-case cost basis, 0.80. Many subscribers evidently bought the puts for less. I hope you sold half of them when your own 'double-out' price was reached. Officially we still hold two puts whose cost basis has been reduced by profit-taking to 0.07.  For now, offer one of them

So far, the futures have exceeded the 2548.50 Hidden Pivot we were using as a minimum upside objective by just 2.25 points. Given the clarity of the pattern associated with the target, however, the small overshoot should be regarded as mildly bullish. In any event, if the futures overcome Friday's moderate heaviness and head higher on Monday or Tuesday, there is a potentially VERY important Hidden Pivot resistance at 2561.25 noted here earlier (see inset).  We will definitely want to lay out shorts, and tie them to a tight stop-loss, if and when this number is reached. Stay tuned to the chat room for guidance in real time as soon as the futures get close._______ UPDATE (Oct 9, 9:50 p.m. EDT): The small corrective pattern shown is sufficiently well formed to serve as a telltale for a possible trend change. If the downtrend easily exceeds the 'd' target, it would be warning that a potentially significant one may be developing.

The S&P 500 Index ended the week in a very crucial spot, just inches from a Hidden Pivot 'midpoint' resistance at 2544.07 (see inset) with the potential to stop the bull in its tracks. This is not what I expect, however, nor is it even a good bet, considering that buyers have been chugging blithely higher for eight-and-a-half-years. Even so, we shouldn't reflexively assume the resistance will be overcome, let alone easily. It could prove to be a daunting obstacle, and that's why I'll suggest starting the new week on the sidelines. We should pay particular attention to any downtrending abc patterns that develop on the lesser charts. If they should start exceeding their 'd' targets, that would shorten the odds that a top of at least intermediate-term importance is in. Alternatively, a lurch higher would likely get to 2605.06 before we could expect to see resistance; and thence 2911, with a best-of-all-worlds run-up to 3278.03 in 2018 or 2019.

The Dow Industrials rose on Thursday for an eighth straight day -- a rare feat, although not nearly as rare as the Cleveland Indians' 22 straight victories this past season. In fact, the Dow has had nearly a dozen streaks lasting eight days.  What is the significance of this latest one? Mainly, that nearly everyone with money in the stock market made a little more of it the easy way -- much as they've been doing for eight-and-a-half years. In a bull market, it would seem, we are all rentiers with a steady stream of passive income derived from our respective chunks of the rock. There are quite a few more of us with skin in the game than you may have imagined. We've all heard that "the public" has yet to go all in. In fact, we are in stocks up to our collective eyeballs, according to Peter Eliades, editor and publisher of Stockmarket Cycles.  In the latest edition of his newsletter, Peter includes a chart that shows stocks as a percentage of household financial assets. Other than during the years of the dot-com boom, readings are as high as they have been at any time during the last 65 years. 'Most Overvalued Market in History' In the same newsletter, he serves up an interesting quote from a colleague, John Hussman: "What investors presently take as a comfortable environment of pleasant market returns and mild volatility is actually, quietly, the single most overvalued point in the history of the U.S. stock market." Explains Peter: "Don’t make the mistake of thinking that Hussman’s parameters for market valuations are based on simple P/E ratios or other orthodox valuation parameters. He has made a strong case that his valuation methodology is capable of assessing the markets potential over a following 10 to

Our last few attempts to bottom-fish this falling piano have produced only thudding failures (although two earlier bets more than quadrupled in value in mere hours). We used minor targets and kept our wagers small, so there was little pain or damage. The 35.48 target shown is the best bottom-fishing opportunity we've seen in months, however, so let's plan on buying near-the-money call options if and when it is reached. Notice how both p and p2 caught precise bounces.  This has confirmed the pattern beautifully, giving us reason to be aggressive with this bet, albeit with the usual tight stop-loss. I'll suggest bidding for four Oct 13 36 calls if and when VXX is trading in the range 35.45 - 35.55.  Stop yourself out if the underlying trades below 35.25 intraday or closes below 35.35. This is a day order, but I will adjust the expiration date and price depending on how quickly D is reached. To keep from jinxing the target, this tout will not be publicly view-able, nor will I mention it in any forum other than Rick's Picks from this point forward._______ UPDATE (Oct 10, 7:21 p.m. EDT):  If VXX falls to within 0.06 points of the 35.48 target today, buy four Oct 20 37 calls.  This is a day order. _______ UPDATE (Oct 11, 5:21 p.m.): Continue to work the order. With VXX trading near 35.48 on Thursday, the options look like they'd be a decent buy for around 0.40. Keep in mind that they'll start to shrivel up fast when the Oct 13 options expire on Friday, so you do NOT want to pay up.  If you buy Oct 27 options instead, please let me know in the chat room so that I can adjust my tracking guidance accordingly. ________ UPDATE (Oct 12, 9:02 p.m.

It's been a struggle lately trying to find something meaningful to say about the stock market from one day to the next. It keeps going higher is all, and you can pick your reasons. Enchanted with the idea of Dow 30000? Then cross your fingers and hope Trump finds a way to ent1ice all that surplus corporate cash held overseas back into the USA.  It's Dow 25,000 that's hard to explain, since it's a business-as-usual target without the exuberance of a macro tax-windfall. Then again, business as usual is pretty good if you're Boeing, which seems poised to sell passenger jets to a world on the brink of a middle-class explosion. Are we perhaps being a little short-sighted when we look for major tops with every hundred-point leap in the Dow?