Last week's waft maxed out the pattern shown, nearly touching a potentially important D target at 176.52. The actual high at 176.39 fell just 13 cents shy. We bought some 2 June 165 puts at or very near the low of the day just in case, but don't get your hopes too high. Because the pattern has taken more than four months to play out, we might expect a pullback of at least a few weeks' duration to give buyers a rest. However, they will be tempted in any event to push past the resistance in order to to take on three formidable 'external' peaks recorded, respectively, at 176.15, 179.81, and 182.94, the all-time high notched in January 2022. Anything above that would still beckon caution, since there is a Hidden Pivot resistance to overcome at 184.96 with some stopping power. What a head-fake that would be! The stock will be easily shortable if it moves into the midst of the prior peaks listed above. Since subscribers seem not to trade the stock, you'll need to nudge me in the chat room for timely guidance. Meanwhile, offer half of the puts to close for twice what you paid for them. ______ |UPDATE (May 23, 6:28 p.m.): The puts doubled to 0.57 today as the stock's downtrend lengthened, so you should have cashed out half of the position to leave you with no skin in the game. There was a raucous cavalcade of buyers in the chat room on Friday when the 0.28 bid I'd advised caught the lowest price ever paid for the 2 June 165 puts. Today, however, only one subscriber seemed to have noticed that the puts were on the move. I suggested keeping 25% of the position for a bigger win than you might currently imagine is
June Gold would become a tempting 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to the green line (x=1816.60). Failing that, we might expect the futures to continue to jack bulls and bears alike with the kind of skittishness that makes trading such a challenge. For all the histrionics we endured last week, settlement was little changed from the week before. Other than an uncompelling voodoo number around 1930, there is not much to recommend for trading purposes as the new week begins.
Although I've flagged a potential bottom-fishing trade in June Gold using 'mechanical' levels, July Silver would become a fetching 'mechanical' short if buyers push it up to the green line (x=25.19) this week. The implied entry risk of $6200 per contract would warrant a trick-shot entry using a small reverse pattern, but that shouldn't present a problem for seasoned Pivoteers. Worst case over the next 2–3 weeks would be 21.460, although I doubt sellers have the moxie to accomplish something so dastardly.
GDXJ looks like it will continue to grope its way lower to reflect softening quotes for bullion futures. If the bloodletting should reach the green line (x=35.58), however, it would trigger a 'mechanical' buy that we should not pass up. Corrections that traverse Hidden Levels from above p2 down to x often yield profitable 'mechanical' entries at the low, even if the anticipated bounce does not always achieve the D target. If bulls were going to find traction somewhere above x, it would have happened with last Thursday's dip to D=37.73 of a corrective pattern begun on April 13 from 43.89. Alas, the support was breached, suggesting there is more downside to endure.
The rally target at 115.32 has been on the marquee for so long that I'd taken a relaxed view of its likelihood of being achieved. However, last week's ratcheting fall threatened to kill the bullish project with a dip beneath the 'c' low at 98.88 that would invalidate the rally pattern. The chart would still be bullish overall, but more tenuously so, since structural support from lows recorded last November near 92 would beckon a test. In the meantime, expect TLT to continue working its way down to 98.88, if only to further discourage the few bond bulls out there. ______ UPDATE (May 31, 8:15 p.m.): The way this vehicle nitwits around, you could almost lose sight of the fact that it represents one of the deepest, most liquid markets on the planet -- and also one of the most important. One could draw a parallel to Joe Biden, a hair-sniffing, thieving, demented old coot occupying what was formerly the most important leadership position in the world. Ahh, for the good old days!
Let's not waste too much time pondering what this sad sack of tailings is going to do next, since it hasn't done much of anything for more than a month. That's if you don't count the meaningless spasms that occur whenever the latest drivel from the Fed hits the tape. The futures will always be tradeable, of course, but only with the kind of close attention that's hard to muster with America in pre-holiday mode ahead of a three-day Memorial Day weekend that is just two weeks off. The work ethic, and all. I'll mention in passing that the June contract has triggered two profitable 'mechanical' shorts since the bear rally began in October, each producing a $12,000 win per contract. Considering the amount of time traders spent screwing the pooch in the process, that worked out to around $3.57 per hour. If ES falls anew to the red line, however, racking up a third 'mechanical' winner, I'll shift my focus to the 3424.50 downside target of the big pattern, shown here.
I've used a pattern similar to the one in Silver to show that both are in a precarious place, poised to fall at least 2% if their respective midpoint Hidden Pivot supports are decisively breached. So far, the pivots have held, but we'll need to monitor price action closely this week. Like July Silver, June Gold is a spec buy at the moment, presumably using a reverse-pattern trigger on a chart of small degree. Doing so on the daily chart would risk a little more than $1000 per contract initially, far more than the $150 or so we should be willing to part with. _______ UPDATE (May 16, 5:22 p.m.): June Gold has fallen into the bog of weak consolidation that occurred in the last two weeks of April. The most bulls should hope for is that the futures rebound sharply after maliciously dipping beneath the bog's low point, 1980.90 on April 19. Here's the chart.
Last week's plunge precisely to the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 23.95, has validated the pattern and its 21.46 target. This is not necessarily as bearish as it sounds, since the futures will need to exceed p decisively, then close beneath it for at least two consecutive days, to imply they are bound for p2=22.704. For now , however, they would become a spec buy using an rABC trigger, since the midpoint pivot is always a logical place for a price reversal. Please nudge me in the chat room at the appropriate time if you are interested. ______ UPDATE (May 16, 6:13 p.m.): Sinking, soon to drop off the edge.
AAPL is a major contributor to the doomed 'wealth effect' that has kept the world from falling into a deflationary abyss since the covid hoax. Friday's wilding spree was a classic example, since the stock's gap-up opening generated around $70 billion of gaseous 'wealth' the instant the regular session began. It seems ridiculous with the U.S. facing a real estate collapse later this year or early next, but the chart of the world's most valuable stock has been pointing to at least 177.11 since early March. AAPL was trading 30 points lower at the time, a fire-sale bargain as far as the Big Boys were concerned. Its relentless rise since, along with that of Chipotle, implies that a bear market is not coming any time soon. Moreover, Chipotle's rally target at 2739, 700 points above where it is currently trading, suggests it and AAPL will continue to tag-team higher after the latter finishes consolidating for its impending thrust to 177.11. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 11:36 a.m.): I just now realized that if a very subtle one-off A is used to project a top for AAPL, today's high at 176.39 came within 13 cents of fulfilling it. The 177.11 target we've been using all along represented a theoretical maximum for the move, but the stock could still fall 72 cents shy of it if it fulfills the one-off target at 176.52. I prefer to get it very exactly right on option trades, but it would be a shame to miss out on putties for want of another 72 cents of upside on a move that has taken months to play out. Here's the chart, but I will take a look at put prices and see if there is something appealing that I can recommend. (Check the chat room for my recommendation).
The chart shown, with a downside target at 56.90, is one of the few I've presented here that actually might not be good enough for government work. The A-B impulse leg is one that only a mother could love, since its 'B' bottom surpassed no distinctive prior low. On the other hand, no fewer than three kamikaze dives have reversed almost precisely from p and p2 Hidden Pivots. Regardless, the theme I have sounded here for nearly a month -- that the Saudi cutbacks amounted to a toothless threat -- has helped keep us on the right side of a downtrend that evidently knows a global recession when it sees one.
