Rick’s Picks

I drum-rolled AAPL Sunday night because it was stalled in a dangerous place, an inch from a crucial resistance at 248.48 (see tout, below). The stock holds the key to the bull market, which is all but certain to continue as long as Apple shares are moving higher. Coincidentally, AAPL and the broad averages somewhat diverged on Monday, with the former getting socked for a 2.23% loss as indexes closed little changed.  I expect this 'divergence' to be reconciled shortly in bulls' favor, but you never know. In any event, the yellow flag is out.

To repeat: AAPL is the only stock we need follow closely to know whether a major top looms for the bull market. The logic is simple: Because Apple is the most valuable company in the world, its shares top institutional investors' must-own list. Furthermore, as long as those who make their living throwing Other People's Money at a dozen or so stocks continue to throw the lion's share of it at AAPL, the bull market is all but certain to continue.  It is not so much a case of AAPL dragging the broad averages higher as dragging the institutional sheeples' brains into thin air. So what are we to infer from the chart show in the inset?  Very simply this: If the stock were to blow past the pink line, a secondary Hidden Pivot' at 248.48, it would strongly imply more upside to at least 283.97, the pattern's 'D' target. That's 14% above these levels, which would mean 30,951 (or so) for the Dow Industrials.  If this were to occur between now and early next year, it would be a fitting blowoff for the biggest U.S. bull market of them all. Keep in mind that your editor can think of a dozen good reasons why the Dow should be selling for half its current price. Better that you should get bullish advice from a permabear who can read charts than from some buy-side fanatic who believes current price earnings multiples alone justify significantly higher prices. ______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 12:02): The stock is getting drubbed after poking its snout slightly above the 248.48 'hidden' resistance on a bull-trap opening. For all we know, the high could endure for the next ten years. Although I doubt it, we needn't concern ourselves with AAPL until such time as it does what we

Bitcoin has taken a so-far $2500 leap, its most powerful rally in nearly a year, since Thursday evening, when Rick's Picks issued a 'buy' signal on YouTube and Facebook.  It was triggered when a widely tracked bitcoin vehicle with the symbol BRTI touched $7609 a day earlier. That represented a spectacular fall from the $13,855 peak reached in June. 'Mechanical' buy and sell signals are a salient feature of the Hidden Pivot Method, and they tend to work best when trading vehicles are at their most violent and evasive. That means the entry points themselves are often scary, since they typically occur opposite steep trends.  The timing of this signal was somewhat surprising, since earlier this month some big banks Facebook had corralled into supporting its planned Libra cryptocurrency backed away from a deal. Some reports attributed the ballistic rally to a statement by Chinese President Xi Jinping that was supportive of efforts in China to expand the realm of blockchain money.  One account cited trendline support for bitcoin near the price where it bottomed, but the chart was haphazardly drawn and unpersuasive.  Nor did this report or any other offer an inkling as to how high bitcoin might go if it has in fact bottomed. We'd suggest using Rick's Picks' target at $21,032 if you are crazy enough to trade this vehicle. This Hidden Pivot resistance is shown in the chart. The pattern from which it was derived is somewhat unconventional, and that's why we are not offering any guarantees. Lest you jump on this trade to get rich quick, please note that BRTI, which tracks bitcoin bids and offers in real time across many markets, could still relapse to as low as $6166 before putting in a bottom.

Careful! I'd practically guaranteed a run-up to at least 1535.90 over the near term, but it was not to be. Bulls who were counting on it got sandbagged on Friday -- or perhaps worse, since the high occurred just inches from the secondary pivot, 1521.40.  Hidden Pivot geezers will recall that when a rally reverses from very close to p2, the retracement often goes on to stop out the point 'C' low of the pattern. This is known as 'Matt's Curse', named after the 15th Century explorer who set sail for the southern tip of Florida but got no further than the Bermuda Triangle  Matt's Curse has yet to be statistically validated, but even so, the gratuitous nastiness of Friday's reversal warrants caution, since it suggests that we, meaning everyone who trades this vehicle, had grown just a tad too bullish. If the retracement comes down to the green line (x=1492.50), I'd be tempted to execute a 'mechanical' buy there, stop 1478.00, but let's play it by ear for now. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 8:05 p.m. ET): The trade triggered, but you should check the Trading Room for alternative entry strategies (and my rating, a 6.9), since the 'mechanical' one has initial risk of nearly $1,500 per contract. Just one subscriber, using mini-contracts, reported getting aboard. I'd suggest taking off at least half if the futures make it to p=1507.00. _______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 8:57 a.m.):  A nearly $30 rally from yesterday's  headless-chicken low has hit 1512.20 so far, allowing exit from half of a four-contract position at $1507.  The gain on two contracts would have been $1900 for anyone who did the trade. Offer another contract to close at 1535.40, half a point below the original target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 5:49 p.m.): Bring the offer to sell one

Although the gold futures tout elsewhere on this page sounds a cautionary note, GDX's vicious selloff after a bull-trap opening looks like a fake. Notice that the intraday high on the opening bar hit 28.18, exceeding an important external peak recorded two weeks earlier by two cents. That may not sound like much, but it was sufficient to generate a bullish impulse leg on the intraday charts before the shakedown occurred.  Moreover, GDX was recovering nicely toward the end of the session and appeared bound for at least D=28.39, You can be confident this Hidden Pivot target will be reached if the midpoint pivot at 27.88 gives way easily. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 8:17 p.m.): Despite the take-no-prisoners relapse, it is happening after a bullish impulse leg was created on the hourly chart. This means we should be looking to get long. You can set up the trade with this rABC pattern, which would trigger on any 26-cent rally from a point 'C' low. ______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 11:55 a.m.): Anyone who followed my instruction would have gotten long at 27.03.  Assuming a partial profit booked on half at p=27.28 as is customary, we'll continue to hold 200 shares with a cost basis of 26.77. No stop-loss for the time being. _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 8:50 p.m.): And a good thing we were not using a stop-loss, since the nasty little scumsucker swooned to 26.73 before bouncing manically to an intraday high at 27.49.

The failure of Friday's short-squeeze to achieve the 3029.25 target we'd set for it is puzzling, especially considering how easily buyers shredded the p2 'secondary' resistance at 3015.69. It still looks like an enticing spot to try shorting, especially if you've made money on the way up. Check the trading room for rABC coordinates, since this vehicle has attracted an active following lately. If the target gets shoved aside, look for more upside to  3056.75, a Hidden Pivot resistance calculated by sliding the point 'A' low down to 2926.25.  The resulting pattern racked up enough precise hits last week to suggest it and its D target will not only work, but work precisely. _______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 8:21 p.m.): Buyers easily exceeded 3029.25, putting the 3056.75 target in play. _______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 4:59 p.m.): The 3056.75 target can be shorted with a stop-loss as tight as 3058.25. If it's hit, however, you should shift your sights upward to the 3069.75 target shown here. The sharp pullback from within a millimeter of p=2962.38 lends authority to the pattern and the target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 8:54 p.m.):  The little wind-bag has  wafted as high as 3055.00 in after-hours trading. Let's see how long it takes for buyers to chew through the 3056.75 target, since that will determine the odds for further upside to 3069.75. Note: If 3056.75 gives way easily, that does not necessarily mean that 3069.75 will be a pushover. _______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 6:06 p.m.): Sellers swarmed the opening, carving out a low at 3020 an hour later that may or may not survive Friday nuttiness. In retrospect, a short from the 3055.00 high that would have been worth as much as $1700 per contract was possible, but only if you were glued to your trading screen an

One could not ask for a more vivid picture of sleazeballs at work than the AMZN chart accompanying this tout. Thursday's melodramatic swoon recalled Oscar Wilde's quip, “One must have a heart of stone to read the death of little Nell without laughing.” And so it was with Amazon; for only an imbecile could have regarded the stock's swift, 165-point dive as bearish.  News out after the close fretted about the impact on Q3 earnings of Amazon's aggressive efforts to ramp up one-day deliveries.  Cutthroat play is exactly how the accompany has come to dominate the retail landscape, and plowing revenues back into operations rather than bringing them down to the bottom line is how Jeff Bezos rolls -- how he got to be the richest man in the world. This method of growing a business was a supposed sore spot for years with institutional investors, who never stopped whining about the huge sums of erstwhile profits Amazon was re-investing in itself from one quarter to the next.  The results speak for themselves. And yet, are investors' memories so short that they can't recall how DaBoyz used the phony 'over-investing' story to shake down the stock so that they could buy it at fire-sale prices from widows and pensioners they'd scared half to death? Bears Will Think Twice When the dust settled on Friday, AMZN had recouped nearly all of its losses, as any sentient observer might have predicted. The short-squeeze bounce was so vicious that bears will think twice about piling onto the stock. This is bullish, and it will help keep AMZN buoyant for the foreseeable future no matter what the news.  The running start may even be sufficient to propel the stock to new record-highs above $2000. Some of those who got shaken out near Friday's panic-stricken

The relentless upward drift of shares has crushed S&P volatility, which has been hitting record lows almost daily.  There may be an opportunity here for us, as the chart makes clear. Specifically, the 19.15 target looks likely to produce a trend reversal sufficient to be tradeable. If VXX gets within 0.08 points of it on Monday, we'll try to buy eight November 8th 22 calls. A price of 0.20 would be about right, but check the Trading Room, since I may need to adjust the bid on-the-fly. You can improvise your own strategy, but don't bet more than you could afford to lose painlessly on a lotto ticket, since this bet is a longshot. I'll note as well that there is a 19.82 downside target on the monthly chart that could reverse the downtrend. VXX closed slightly beneath it on Friday, but I didn't notice the target until after the bell or I would have suggested buying a few call options to hold over the weekend. We might attempt this on Monday, but it will depend on how stocks open. ______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 5:06 p.m.): I still like 19.15 as a place to try bottom-fishing. We may have to improvise on-the-fly, however, so stay tuned to the chat room if VXX gets within 0.20 points or so of the target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 9:01 p.m.): Big surprise, VXX is about to hit the 19.15 target. I'll leave it to those of you who have seemed interested in VXX to improvise a bottom-fishing strategy, but don't bet the ranch. A tradeable bounce "soon" from very near the target looks like a good gamble to me, but don't take that as a guarantee. You should be feeling good already about having dodged the bullet by NOT getting long six points

Sometimes I wonder if America is becoming a nation of scammers. Not a week goes by that I don't hear from at least one or two of them. That's no exaggeration. The phone number above popped up on my caller ID this afternoon when I was trying to unwind after a busy day. A woman with a heavy Hispanic accent told me that my Social Security number and a phone number associated with it were found, along with a quantity of cocaine, in a car seized in a raid near the Texas border.  She asked me to verify the last four digits of my Social, but I impolitely declined. Instead, I told her that if she ever bothered me again, I'd find out where she works, where her kids go to school, who her relatives are, and then I'd wreck their lives.  It's possible to find out all of this with a little diligence and some training. I know this because I worked for a private eye in San Francisco for a few years who taught me how to find out nearly anything, especially about the people we meet. I'd worked as a newspaper reporter before then, and so I was already pretty good at it. But much as I'd enjoy tracking down this woman, her co-workers and her sleaze-bag employer to teach them that crime doesn't pay, who's got time for that sort of thing?  And anyway, crime actually does pay. This is unfortunate but true now that local police departments have given up on petty crime.  The result is that America is breeding a nation of scammers who go about their business with impunity, right out in the open. The Rental Con One of them was advertising a $1,000 rental in Lauderdale Lakes, Florida a few days ago