Rick’s Picks

The 2929.00 target shown has served as a minimum upside objective for the last two weeks (notwithstanding some micro-adjustments I made that I am now withdrawing for simplicity's sake). Although there is nothing in the chart that should cause us to think the target won't be reached, the labored hovering at the secondary pivot this week suggests the futures might have to pull back to get a running start at D. The correction could come all the way  down to 2824.18 (the green line) without affecting the bullish look of the daily chart. In fact, that would trip a buy signal that I'd view as opportune. A fall merely to 2859.25 would trigger an "old-style" mechanical buy that we'll consider if and when that number is hit. For now, though, I'd suggest staying out of harm's way as the futures nervously bide their time.

Gold got whacked Thursday as it so often does — i.e., at the apex of a rally that may have encouraged a bullish thought or two in the minds of some investors. Alas, the worst selloff we’ve seen in — well, it’s actually been only two weeks — socked the June contract with an $18 loss. In the accompanying chart, some might discern a head-and-shoulders pattern in the ups and downs of 2019. If you're believer in this formation — and I am not, since they are everywhere one wants to see them — they imply that a downdraft is coming that could bring the futures down to as low as 1220. If it’s any consolation, that would not be much of a victory for bears (aka the Bad Guys), since it would amount to a decline of less than 6%. For the time being, however, I’ll suggest sticking with the 1262.70 target that has obtained for the last two weeks. It is my minimum downside objective and worth bottom-fishing. There's a chance bulls could find the gumption to turn this bag of bolts around near 1279.40, the pattern’s ‘secondary Hidden Pivot support.______ UPDATE (Apr 16, 6:03 p.m. ET): Today's savaging changed nothing in the immediate picture. The 1262.70 target remains valid, and a rally to p=1296.60 would trigger an 'old-style' mechanical short, stop 1308.00. ______UPDATE (Apr 25, 12:03 a.m.): The adorable little tease is headed up to 1284.00, assuming it can traipse past p=1279.60. I'll need to see a print at 1340, though, before I throw in the towel on the bearish 1262.70 target. _______ UPDATE (Apr 25, 10:13 p.m.): A slog up to 1287.90 looks likely. Traders can place a mechanical bid at 1280.70, stop 1278.20, if the futures fall to that number after having peaked today in

Are these guys good, or what! On Wednesday, with Boeing shares getting clobbered, DaBoyz somehow managed to close the Dow six points higher on the day.  That may not sound impressive, but considering that Boeing is by far the most heavily weighted stock in the Industrial Average, the feat was akin to getting a 747 Dreamlifter airborne with two engines out and a half-dozen Abrams battle tanks in its belly.  The effort was rewarded with exactly the kind of headline Wall Street needed to distract the herd from the urgent distribution that has been occurring daily: Dow Tacks on a Modest Gain in Quiet Trading. This innocuous report belies the increasing likelihood that the steep recovery begun on December 26 is about to breathe its last. There are many good reasons for this, including: 1) incipient recessions in China and Europe; 2) a climactic frenzy in IPOs, with Uber leading the pack with a hoped-for $100 billion valuation; 3) falling auto sales...everywhere; 4) a dead-cat bounce in housing; 5) Q1 earnings growth that is expected to fall for the first time in three years; 6) a flat yield curve that is making it extremely difficult for the big banks to shuffle paper profitably; 7) higher energy prices that are starting to impact the transportation sector; and, 8) some key tech stocks that have lost their luster. Time to Fight the Fed? Offsetting all of these negatives, at least in the giddy brains of permabulls, is this: The Fed has no plans to tighten and could conceivably even ease. Place your bets!  But before you do, consider that the Dreamlifter is about to take on the added weight of a growing scandal tied to two 737 Max 8 crashes in the last five months that killed 346 people. The stock lost nearly

As much as Democrats enjoy wagging their fingers at all of us racists, homophobes and climate-changers, their first love, borne of longstanding political tradition, is kicking fallen bankers in the nuts. It doesn't hurt that in the eyes of the Democrats and America's flourishing grievance industry, many of the perps happen to be privileged white men. Wells Fargo's bankers in particular have been bludgeoned worse than a pinata at a Cinco de Mayo party, and last summer they paid $575 million to end investigations by 50 states and the District of Columbia. What did they do to deserve this shakedown? I can answer that question from personal experience, since I was one of the alleged victims. I came to possess about a dozen accounts at Wells, including business and personal checking, credit and debit cards attached to each, assorted savings accounts and related plastic. I didn’t need so many accounts, but Wells cheerfully opened them for me anyway over a period of several years, ostensibly so that I could enjoy all the features and privileges associated with each. The Lawyers Score Again! Eventually I was inundated by credit/debit cards, pin numbers and monthly statements showing little or no activity. I brought all of the cards into the bank one day and asked them to purge as many as possible. This they dutifully did, and that was the end of the story, at least for me. But it was just the beginning for a plague of tort lawyers and grandstanding politicians like Sen. Elizabeth Warren. They did a number on Wells with repercussions that have continued to this day despite the $575 million extortion payment.  Most recently, Wells' CEO resigned -- the second to quit in the last two-and-a-half years. He was not under a cloud of scandal, just a capable,

Considering the dour outlook for Q1 earnings, the stock market's exuberant run-up over the last month feels like Tennyson's Charge of the Light Brigade: "Into the valley of Death rode the 600...'  And yet, we know from watching the shares of Boeing, Apple (see chart inset) and Facebook climb vertically into an avalanche of negative news concerning them that Wall Street's '600' really don't give a damn about the news, or even about 'fundamentals'.  Earnings are expected to come in around 4.5% lower than a year earlier, and this will be the first quarter in three years with negative earnings growth. Bank-stock profits in particular have come under pressure because of the yield curve's flatness, and financial shares are therefore likely to be laggards if the broad  averages continue higher on vague emanations of possible Fed easing.  This amounts to glue-sniffing, and although the habit will kill you, or at least your brain eventually, at the time you are doing it, it probably seems like a small price to pay for a good high.

It's been so long since I've changed the marquee for this oftentimes dud that the modest, five-day rally warrants a few words of encouragement. It projects to 33.56, and although I'm wary of serving up any 'D' rally targets in gold with the near-certitude that is sometimes possible in other vehicles, this target looks very likely to be reached.  It is mainly a case of bulls impaling the midpoint resistance, in this case 32.07; then they closed GDXJ above it for good measure.  Considering the stellar 'technicals,' bulls can hardly miss, right? Whether they have the gumption to achieve 36.35, the Hidden Pivot target of a larger pattern, is another story, but a close above the 33.56 pivot would be a constructive step toward that end. _______ UPDATE (Apr 14, 12:12 p.m.): As we have come to expect, gold is having excruciating difficulty getting airborne. The 36.35 target remains theoretically valid nonetheless, but not if 30.57 is exceeded to the downside. For now, I'll recommend remaining discouraged. _______ UPDATE (Apr 16, 6:12 p.m.): Time to say "Sayonara!" In search of support, GDXJ is about to fall to at least 29.26, where a technically significant low was recorded in late January.

My recent commentary on the catastrophic debt deflation that lies ahead drew the usual sniper fire, all of it from dreamy inflationists who didn't address a single point I'd made. Each had his own theories about why (hyper)inflation rather than deflation is more likely to do us in, but none was even logical, let alone persuasive. I'm still waiting to hear some good arguments, so text away. If you want to add your two cents' worth, please explain how the upcoming Great Pension Bust can be dealt with in a way that would be inflationary. And bonus points to anyone who can explain how digital helicopter money will be used to reinflate the financial/credit system when the byzantine clearing network that supports plastic money lies in smoldering ruin. A daisy chain, it currently operates solely on misplaced trust -- trust that will vanish the instant the banks fail to open (and even less trustworthy at that point would be block-chain money.)

It's clear that no matter how damaging the news, Boeing's institutional sponsors will continue to do whatever it takes to levitate the stock. Remarkably, BA has rallied 10% into an onslaught of headlines concerning the aircraft manufacturer's apparent negligence in two 737 collisions that killed 346 people. Will China or some other countries cancel their orders for the 737 Max as a result? Will lawsuits ultimately cost the company many billions of dollars? If so, investors have been acting like they don't care. But let's see if they can get past the 402.67 resistance shown in the chart.  It poses a formidable obstacle to the manipulation of the stock, even by the biggest institutional players in the securities world. If they are able exceed this 'Hidden Pivot', closing for two consecutive days above it, we would have to concede that BA's cool, canny handlers are capable of challenging the all-time high at 446.01 recorded on March 1. _______ UPDATE (April 8, 6:55 a.m. ET): The stock has fallen 4.5% overnight -- not in remorse over all of those deaths, but because Boeing announced it would cut 737 Max production by 20%. Expect the stock to recover, since this will have no impact on the predictability of earnings, the single most important factor in institutional buyers' love affair with Boeing._______ UPDATE (Apr 9, 8:49 p.m.): Boeing's run of bad news is challenging the stock's mighty sponsors mightily. Even sleazeballs who happen to be Masters of the Universe can only do so much to prop up the stock when news of a 737 production cutback follows headlines concerning the crash. It's so very nice to see them in the same position Mel Gibson's William Wallace found himself at the end of Braveheart. Unlike him, though, they'll figure a way out._______ UPDATE (Apr

It's clear that no matter how damaging the news, Boeing's institutional sponsors will continue to do whatever it takes to levitate the stock. Remarkably, BA has rallied 10% into an onslaught of headlines concerning the aircraft manufacturer's apparent negligence in two 737 collisions that killed 346 people. Will China or some other countries cancel their orders for the 737 Max as a result? Will lawsuits ultimately cost the company many billions of dollars? If so, investors have been acting like they don't care. But let's see if they can get past the 402.67 resistance shown in the chart.  It poses a formidable obstacle to the manipulation of the stock, even by the biggest players. If they are able exceed this 'Hidden Pivot', closing for two consecutive days above it, we would have to concede that BA's cool handlers are capable of challenging the all-time high at 446.01 recorded on March 1.