Rick Ackerman

Tuesday's maniacal short-squeeze suggest stocks can move higher as long as interest rates are not rising sharply on a given day. Bonds were slightly weak and yields were up commensurately, but that evidently did not deter the wilding spree that pushed the Dow 548 points higher. The hourly chart (see inset) suggests buyers will encounter relatively little resistance between here and a shelf of supply near 26,400 created a week ago. We'll make that our minimum upside objective for the near term, implying the rally could have another 600 points to go. This scenario pre-empts a bearish one I'd put out calling for a drop to 24,298, although I strongly doubt the rally will achieve new record highs. It depends mainly on interest rates, as I noted here yesterday, and the uptrend in yields looks like it has further to go. If so, that and the incipient collapse of the real estate market are likely to make buyers regret today's nutty spree.______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 5:45 p.m.): Today's gratuitous swoon changed little in my forecast, although it may have made it more difficult for DaBoyz to 'work' shorts to provide more buying power. Looking for some nasty whipsaws in the days ahead.

The burlesque over Sen. Elizabeth's Warren's dubious Cherokee ancestry is helping Republicans build a head of steam ahead of the November elections. On the increasingly indefensible side of the political divide are those who evidently believe that a slapdash DNA test showing Warren has perhaps 1/1024th Indian blood "proves" she is a Native American. Believers include most Democrats and the national media other than Fox News. And then there are the rest of  us -- i.e., those who see Warren's cadres as buffoons, willing to trumpet an absurd lie and embarrass themselves simply because her Marxist political views are companionable with their own. Those who are predicting a "blue wave" at the ballot box in November are way off the mark. They are saying in effect that most voters will stand by Warren even though Cherokee Nation has sternly rebuked her for making an issue of her supposed Native American pedigree.  A blue wave also supposes that a majority of Americans are okay with a new norm that would feature rioting in the streets of formerly peaceful cities like Portland, higher taxes, more Obamacare, the suppression of the U.S. Constitution, and leadership on Capitol Hill from shrieking hags like Nancy Pelosi and Maxine Waters, and sanctimonious political hacks like Charles Schumer. Strong Economy Favors Status Quo For a blue wave to happen, and the party of unctuous carny Michael Avenatti to win big, voters would also need not to have noticed that the economy and stock market are as strong as they've been for decades. Yeah, sure. Do the pollsters who are predicting a blue wave on MSNBC and CNN take us for idiots?  A genuine idiot is Bloomberg news' Jonathan Bernstein, who wrote a column the other day saying Warren, by sticking with her ridiculous story, is positioning herself

[This corrects the earlier version, which referred to yields on the 30-Year T-Bond.] Stock market bulls could catch a break if the retracement in Treasury yields continues for a while. The chart shows yields on the Ten-Year Note to have peaked last week at 3.25%.  The correction has since hit 3.12% and could conceivably go lower. Although my rally target at 3.32% lies significantly above, that target comes from the weekly chart, and charts of lesser degree look maxed out for the time being. If so, the bulls had better make hay while the sun shines, since a move in yields to new cyclical highs will weigh heavily on stocks and stifle their upward progress. Mortgage rates are already at their highest point in years, and it won't be long before the negative impact on home sales that has already occurred will spread into auto leases.

Last week's avalanche on Wall Street provided some opportunities for Rick's Picks subscribers to make easy profits, always with risk tightly under control. Although there was fear in the headlines, the 24/7 chat room was cool, calm and even jocular at times.  Click here to join in the fun for two free weeks. One reason some subscribers were feeling light-hearted while millions of investors got pulped is that they had taken my timely recommendation to buy call spreads in VXX, which tracks short-term volatility in the S&P 500. Because this trading vehicle rises when stocks fall, the spread doubled in value, then quadrupled as stocks began plummeting early last week. The original recommendation went out on September 28, airing on the Rick's Picks Facebook page the same day under the headline Leveraging an October Disaster with Cheap Calls.  Sound enticing? It was -- and easy, too. One need only have bought soon-to-expire October 30/35 call spreads in VXX at the recommended price of 0.50 or less. It traded down to 0.21 over the next several days before taking a powerful leap that increased its value more than twentyfold by week's end. Check out the Rick's Picks Facebook page if you don't believe it.  And see for yourself whether you could have done the trade based on the guidance I'd provided. Here's a Play for Next Week While your there, click on my latest video, which details a tactic using 'vertical' call-option spreads to leverage a further fall in the Dow Industrials next week. I've suggested that traders pay 0.35 or less for the spread, but it has the potential to hit 2.50. The Indoos would need to plunge by more than 800 points for you to hit a home run, but you stand to make as much as $860 for

The Dow looks primed to fall at least another 750 points, so it's no time to let your guard down. Thursday's obligatory bounce came from just inches beneath the 24,965 benchmark I'd proffered Wednesday night as a minimum downside objective, but it didn't get very far. By day's end the Indoos were falling anew, on track to hit the 24,298 target shown. That's a Hidden Pivot support of intermediate degree, and if it fails to contain the selling, expect more slippage to at least the 23,997 low recorded in June. We'll be looking for a 'counterintuitive' bounce from somewhere near there, so stay tuned to the chat room for real-time guidance if you're keen to bottom-fish. ______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 4:08 p.m.): The bounce off Friday's sold-out low generated a 'mechanical' short at 25,284 (i.e., the green line shown in the chart), stop 25,612. The trade is predicated on the 24,298 target given above. If and when the Indoos slip beneath Midpoint Pivot p=24,955, particularly if they close beneath it, that would imply more slippage straightaway to the target.

Rates on the 10-Year Note eased somewhat last week as investors fled to safety, but the chart shows that the rally is still well on-track to hit a minimum 3.59%. Because it took a long time for buyers to chew through the 3.11% midpoint Hidden Pivot -- a target we had correctly forecast six months earlier, we might expect them to take their time covering the distance between here and 3.59%. Regardless, even if the pullback continues for a couple of weeks, the stock market is likely to remain under pressure due to what the news media are calling 'interest rate jitters'. We've been warning about this for months, and the day has finally arrived.

AMZN has bounced moderately so far from a 1685. 10 low that was less than $2 from the lowest target I could have projected using the intraday chart (click here for graph).  The low sits roughly midway between two important lows made in June and July, respectively, at 1646 and 1739. This is an odd and uncomfortable place for the turn to have come, since we might have expected the buying to materialize close to the lower number, which would have been perceived as an important support. Under the circumstances, I would expect the stock to relapse and test the low, although we should give buyers wide berth as they bounce the stock who-knows-how-high. The lesser charts point toward a minimum 1866.38 (15-minute, a=1685.10 on 10/11), and a rally to that Hidden Pivot should be considered a done deal if AMZN can close above p=1804.46 or trade decisively above it intraday._______ UPDATE (Oct 15, 9:49 p.m.): Today's constipated price action slightly lowered AMZN's fly-or-die threshold to 1796.00. Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Oct 16, 7:41 p.m.): AMZN turned doubters into pudding with Tuesday's relentless rally. For now, use the 1858 Hidden Pivot shown in this chart as a minimum upside objective.______ UPDATE (Oct 18, 11:57 a.m.): The stock has sold off hard after falling $13 shy of the 1858 target. It's still valid, but it looks less compelling at the moment. A further fall to X=1765.19 would trip a weak 'mechanical' buy signal.

I haven't featured the Gold Bugs Index in the touts section for more than two years because my outlook has been so bleak. It may be time to look on the bright side, however, since HUI has turned up from within an inch of a long-term Hidden Pivot support at 133.37. The actual low, recorded a month ago, was 133.12, and it marked the beginning of an 18% rally that has steepened noticeably in the last few days. Buyers would need to hit 162.45 to refresh the bullish impulsiveness of the chart shown -- a tick above an 'external' peak recorded August 9 on the way down. The peak is a very small one -- a look-to-the-lefter, actually -- but it is sufficient to give us a handhold for trading if HUI should pull back from above it. Last week's rally was robustly impulsive on the daily chart, but we'll need to see a correction and a follow-up thrust to get a better idea of how much power is pushing it._______ UPDATE (Oct 28): HUI took a steep dive last week after topping 3.50 below our 162.45 'green light' threshold. This is disappointing, but merely so, and anyway, we should have become used to such behavior in gold by now. _______ UPDATE (Nov 3): The week ended with a mildly encouraging, bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart.  It yields a 151.95 projection, but possibly 156.35 if any higher. _______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 6:02 p.m.): Buyers poked an inch above the 151.95 target, then retreated like sandpipers from the tide.  The 156.35 target will remain valid as long as 147.55 is not exceeded to the downside. _______UPDATE (Nov 7, 9:57 p.m.): The 156.35 target has been invalidated by HUI's moderate pullback, but not the bullishness of the hourly chart. Buyers

AAPL has gotten socked over the last five days, but sellers have yet to surpass a key support beneath which the stock would generate a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart. Even then, the big picture would remain bullish, albeit with diminishing authority if the downtrend were to continue to exceed 'external' lows, especially doing so without much pause. The next such low lies at 208.33, but in the meantime we should monitor upward abcd corrections, since they would be telegraphing yet more weakness if they fail to reach their respective 'd' targets._______ UPDATE (Oct 14, 5:08 p.m.): A follow-through to at least 224.93, the 'D' target shown in this chart, looks like a no-brainer at the moment. Since AAPL is a trillion dollar stock, we might expect it to pull the broad averages higher or at least keep them buoyant when the new week begins. If buyers blow past the target, it would add even more bullishness to the big picture. ________ UPDATE (Oct 15, 9;56 p.m.): Friday's giddy end-of-day rally reversed sharply as the new weeks began. It smells like distribution, but we won't know until we've seen more weakness. A midpoint Hidden Pivot at 215.41 is a logical place for a bounce, and you can bottom-fish there with a tight stop-loss. If it gives way, however, expect more slippage to 207.94. Here's the chart.  _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 12:07 p.m.):  The bounce we were expecting was strong and came from a 216.76 low, stranding our niggardly bid. A move today above 224.40 would re-energize the hourly chart by creating a fresh impulse leg.______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 5:50 p.m.): Today's sloppy price action changed nothing in my forecast. ________ UPDATE (Oct 18, 11:13 p.m.): The stock gapped down on the opening bar and continued to fall before finding