Rick Ackerman

The Dow was down nearly 800 points before buyers finally got traction and turned things around. The 300-point rally that ensued was so crappy looking that we can only assume it's going to continue. Perhaps I'm just another permabear all too eager to play the contrarian, especially since the stock market has not gone our way for more than a few consecutive days in more than nine years.  Maybe this time?  In any event, it is a long climb from here (to 24,978, to be exact) before even the hourly chart turns impulsively bullish, so we'll simply bide our time until Mr. Market shows us another hole card. Meanwhile, notice in the chart that the Indoos reversed almost precisely from the pattern's secondary pivot (shown as a pink line at 23,358). This is mildly bullish -- enough so that we should remain open-minded to the possibility that a crappy rally will fool shorts right up until the moment they panic.

Usually it's easy to discover a Hidden Pivot 'reason', after the fact, for whatever highs and lows exist on a chart. In this case, however, Monday's bombed-out low occurred in a place that would seem to make little sense. And that's why I'm going to take the bounce it generated seriously -- i.e., because it has come out of Nowheres-ville, seemingly oblivious to any technical levels that I am aware of.   A rally to the green line would generate a very enticing signal to get short 'mechanically,' but we'll deal with that if and when the opportunity arises.  For now, if you want to get long with risk very tightly controlled, I'd suggest crafting a 'camouflage' entry trigger on the five-minute chart or less. This chart illustrates one such hypothetical possibility. _______ UPDATE (April 2, 5:25 p.m. EDT): A tedious 'inside day' has left the analysis and outlook above unchanged.

AMZN was down by as much as $90 Monday after having overshot the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1360.32 shown in the chart. The breach was $5 -- not quite enough for us to assume that more downside to the pattern's 'D' target, 1265.42, is a done deal.  But neither is the so-far $24 bounce reason for bulls to get excited; in fact, the rally would need to surpass the pattern's point 'C' high at 1455.22 to turn the hourly chart even mildly bullish.  Please note, though, that a mere 1407.77 (i.e., the green line) would trip a 'mechanical' short, stop 1455.23. I'm not recommending this trade except to those who know how to craft a 'camouflage' entry trigger that would reduce the initial risk of around $4800 per round lot to a theoretical  $120-$150. _______ UPDATE (April 2, 7:02 p.m. EDT): The stock ended the day on an upswing, but it will have no bearing on the analysis above. Click here for a chart that shows a camouflage entry set-up that would have produced a profit of about $800 so far, albeit with initial risk of around $370 per round lot. _______ UPDATE (April 4, 7:45 p.m.):  After playing toe-sies for four days with the 1360.32 'hidden' support, AMZN finally got off the launching pad with a thrust that has turned the hourly chart impulsively bullish.  Traders can use the rally pattern A=1373.13 (1:30 p.m.) to craft a 'camouflage' entry trigger.  If point B winds up being no higher than 1415.39, this trade will enjoy very good odds.  Even if you don't do the trade, you should monitor it nonetheless, since the set-up has the potential to produce a big winner with relatively little initial risk. ________ UPDATE (April 5, 6:07 p.m.):  The trade recommended above worked beautifully, producing

Today's exhilarating reversal took bulls and bears alike by surprise when, instead of reversing on short-covering in the final hour, sellers quickened their tempo until the closing bell. The chart shows why we have put so much faith in Amazon to tell us what is on the fevered brains of its institutional sponsors at any given moment.  Ricks Picks subscribers began the day with 1576.63 rally target that lay $20 above Monday's close. In the actual event, Amazon surged overnight to within 66 cents of the target before plummeting $93 intraday. Put options that could have been purchased for as little as $2 on the opening fetched as much as $41 later in the session.  The stock ended the day pennies from the 1482.59 target shown in this chart. If it gives way, the next place I would look for a bounce is 1464.89, [Note:  This number, originally given as 1463.41, has been corrected.] a Hidden Pivot support derived from these coordinates on the hourly chart:  a=1606.44 on 3/14; b=1495.36 on 3/23. _______ UPDATE (March 28, 7:10 p.m.): Ordinarily I would be cynically dismissive of AMZN's plunge today, since it came on supposed news that we've heard before -- i.e., that Trump thinks Amazon is too powerful and that he wants to 'do something' about it.  But what if investors were to dismiss the sell-off as a con-job engineered by the usual sleazeballs to shake loose some bargain shares? That would make them bullish right now -- the moreso if the stock were to reverse this week's steep slide and start looking like its old world-beating self again. I am going to keep these crazy thoughts foremost in my mind if AMZN seems to revive with vigor.  I can't think of a more effective way for Mr. Market to trap

I've been projecting a potentially important high of 3.112% for T-Notes, but the recent decline in rates from a  2.936% peak a week ago has steepened, hinting of a potentially important turn. This is still more than a little speculative, since the downtrend halted today at the exact, 2.786% midpoint pivot of the pattern shown. However, a two-day close beneath it would all but guarantee a further decline in rates to the 2.717% target shown.  If that crystal-clear 'hidden' support gets smashed as well, it would shorten the odds that we are witnessing the resumption of the decades-long bull market in long-term Treasurys. _______ UPDATE (April 1, 5:08 p.m.): Yields are likely to fall to at least 2.717%, the Hidden Pivot level flagged above. If it's decisively breached we could expect more slippage down to 2.689, with the likelihood of a scalp-able rally or a possible short-term low from very close to that number. ________ UPDATE (April 2, 6:45 p.m.): Yields bottomed today precisely at the 2.717% target provided above. I expect the 2.689 target to be achieved as well, but a rally above 2.790% would negate it. _______ UPDATE (April 4, 8:04 p.m.): Today's rally surpassed the point 'C' peak of the pattern I'd used to project a 2.689 low.  This is bullish price action, but we'll need to see how many more peaks the rally can exceed before we can get a good 'read' on it.  The next significant hurdle lies well above, at 2.854.

The S&P futures look more likely to rally or remain buoyant than to collapse any time soon. Actually bears would find themselves in trouble if the futures were to rally above the 2744.00 peak from March 21 that lies just above the green line (see inset).  That would equate to a thousand-point Dow rally, and although it's hardly a given at this point, we shouldn't be so dismissive of the possibility that we would tend to overlook early signs of a short-covering build-up.  It can start with modest energy, mutating into full panic as rallies approach prior peaks. For now, it would take a two-day close or a decisive intraday breach of p2=2573.44 to imply the futures are headed to the 2495.50 target. It was given here earlier as a minimum bear-cycle projection and remains viable.

I stopped covering bitcoin a couple of months ago simply because it became boring. The wild swings of yore made it fun to trade for a while, and subscribers may recall that we did pretty good at it. But bitcoin has settled into a rut, bringing out the worst in those who once adored it; now they delight in kicking it while it's down. A recent headline at Bloomberg.com captured their feisty turn toward disrespect: Bitcoin Is Worthless, Bubble May Pop Soon, Allianz Global Says. And here's another, from a seer who discerns only dark clouds on the horizon: Bitcoin's ‘Death Cross’ Looms as Strategist Eyes $2,800 Level. I could make a technical case for $1800 myself, and it wouldn't surprise me if the eventual bottom is even lower than that. But why bother?  It'd just be an educated guess, and no one would trade it anyway. But let me be clear: I am not looking for bitcoin's demise, but rather for a second-wind rally that eclipses the old highs.  In the meantime, cryptocurrency's flights of fancy will be subdued and limited, mainly because of the heavy losses suffered by hoards of amateurs, dabblers and other speculators, particularly early adopters. In at prices below $500, they figured they couldn't lose when the 'cryptos' soared above $10,000.  Some bought more bitcoin on the way up and at its heights. It is the very real damage they suffered on the way back down to $5900 that is weighing on bitcoin at the moment and which will continue to hold bulls in check. ________ UPDATE (April 1, 5:08 p.m. EDT): Bitcoin has been bound for the $4509 target since January, notwithstanding the powerful bull-trap rally in February. I wouldn't touch it till it gets down there. _______ UPDATE (April 3, 7:12 p.m.): How

You don't have to be a chartist to discern the weight of supply sitting on the stock market right now.  The steep pitch of early February's plunge tells us that many investors were caught completely by surprise. Although some undoubtedly expect shares to binge anew to untold highs, it's possible that even more are waiting for a strong upswing that would allow an exit with less-than-stellar gains. That is the nature of the supply overhang mentioned above, and it will tend to limit the rallies. It will also exacerbate the downdrafts, with each new wave of selling persuading more and more investors to exit on the very next show of strength. Those bear rallies will come, but usually not with sufficient vigor to allow a satisfying exit by most or even many. The herd will not be quite as greedy when yet other opportunity to escape comes, but Mr. Market will anticipate this with an even more disappointing rally. This dynamic explains why bear markets most commonly turn ugly not when stocks are falling from record highs, but when rallies to lesser peaks sputter out after having failed to reach hoped-for levels. FAANG Stocks Falter To this sobering picture we must add a weighty accretion of negative stories that recently have turned some previous high-flying stocks leaden.  The shares of Google and Facebook, to name two, have gone flaccid due to the intense scrutiny the companies are getting in the U.S. and Europe over the way they gather information about their customers and exploit it. Tesla's abysmal failure to hit production targets for the highly vaunted Model 3 has called the company's very survival into question. Apple's overrated smartphones, with their notorious battery problems, are finally meeting serious price resistance from consumers; and even the shares of Netflix, whose stock

Further tankage to the 2495.50 target shown seems a foregone conclusion, although the glacial pace of the descent is at times something to marvel at. Most of the distance will be traversed in mere hours, as we know, with the perhaps many days in-between working ceaselessly to disabuse traders of the notion that they can profit from something so obvious. Or is it? I'd temporarily shelve the bearish case if the futures were to rally above the 2744.00 peak that occurred on March 21. But anything shy of that would be just noise, as far as I'm concerned -- a side show to distract us from the possibility that, yes, maybe the bull market is finally over. However, we know not to let a mere rally to new record highs negate this suspicion.  In fact, and as I've mentioned here before, it would be the perfect way for Mr. Market to set the hook.  No matter what happens, I can assure you we'll never be so distracted that there will be any confusion about the trend.