Rick’s Picks

Hard selling on Friday generated a bearish impulse leg on the hourly chart while also breaching a clear Hidden Pivot support at 4147.50 shown in the chart. This means that still lower prices are all but certain; however, bears shouldn't get their hopes too high. I say this because although the S&Ps, the Dow and the Russell 2000 got pounded last week, the chimpanzees who "manage" your money were applying a light touch to their flavor-of-the-month favorite, the Nasdaq 100. The implication is that any weakness we saw last week was tightly scripted, and that the chimps are simply rotating money so that it can hold stocks aloft more efficiently. Concerning the E-Mini S&Ps, look for a turn near 4100, or if not there, then around 4032. A 'reverse ABC' set-up on the 60-minute chart can be used to bottom fish, using a=4185.50 (6/17 at 1:00 p.m.) to anchor the pattern).  If you're uncertain about how to do this, wait for a simpler trade to come along that you understand. The short in this vehicle suggested by 'Farmer' in the Trading Room last Thursday night is a good example. It was simple to execute (if not without risk)  and is currently showing a profit of around $14,000 on four lots for anyone who followed him in and stuck with the position. _______ UPDATE (Jun 21, 10:38 a.m. ET):  A murderous short squeeze has turned the futures violently upward from 4126, well above my set-up level for bottom-fishing.  The closest obstacle is p=4218.25 of the pattern shown in the chart. It can serve for now as a minimum upside objective. _______ UPDATE (Jun 21, 9:40): The hysteria has hit 4221.50. No subscriber reported holding a position, so I have not provided tracking guidance. However, and for what it's worth, Farmer reports

My headlined enthusiasm for gold a few weeks ago looks to have been premature, as was my conjecture that the takedown artists who sometimes gang up on precious metals were finally outmatched by a waxing bull market. It would appear they are still very much in control, although I doubt they'll be able to push quotes much below 1600. That would represent a nearly 20% correction off last August's 2063 high -- perhaps all that could be imagined, given the deafening drumbeat these days warning of a horrific inflation that supposedly lies ahead.  For now, I'll recommend using p2=1700.70 (see inset) as a minimum downside projection for the near term. However, if this Hidden Pivot is easily breached, brace for more downside to at least D=1627.80. Alternatively, an unpaused upthrust exceeding 1826.40 would give bulls some breathing room, although it would not negate the bearish targets; that would require a print at 1919.30. _______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 11:34 p.m.): Bull have hung in there at p=1773.50, but the so far $12 breach of this midpoint Hidden Pivot suggests it will be a losing battle. Let's see what a new days brings.

The chimps who manage your hard-earned dollars must have decided back in August that they would hold this overvalued gas-bag aloft rather than subject it to a bear market. It has been marking time ever since, albeit with gratuitous swings in either direction, presumably to avoid getting cramps. From a technical standpoint, IWM would actually generate a 'mechanical' buy signal if it were to plummet to the green line (215.45).  Ordinarily I would rate this trade only a '5.7' or so on a 1-10 scale of desirability. But because a more serious breakdown seems unlikely, I am recommending the trade anyway, albeit for a ride merely to p=222.99.  Alternatively, IWM would become a fetching short at D=237.72 if it ever gets there. ______ UPDATE (Jul 8, 11:20 p.m. ET): The trade could actually trigger, so stay alert if you've been waiting.  Here's the chart, and I am recommending buying not options,  but as many shares as you can afford up to 400.  

Silver could get off easier than gold if the 24.33 target shown is the worst that sellers can do in this presumably minor bear cycle.  There's even a chance the turn could come from 25.47, a secondary pivot that can be used for bottom-fishing with a 'camouflage' setup.  In practice, this would entail drawing a conventional abc pattern on a chart of lesser degree to trigger the trade once the July contract has touched 25.47.  I'll also mention that, according to the tenets of 'Matt's Curse,' if the futures turn from within an inch of p2, the reaction rally has a good chance of exceeding C=28.90 of the bearish pattern.

Elsewhere on the home page, I've suggested taking last week's defenestration of the S&Ps and IWM with a grain of salt, since it is just the chimps shifting money amongst the various "themes" they determine with a toss of a dart each month. Even with the Guvmint force-feeding dollars into stocks, real estate and the consumer economy, it takes gargantuan sums to hold the shares of trillion-dollar companies like Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft continuously aloft, never mind move them higher. That's why Friday's breach of C=335.20 (see inset) is unlikely to be the start of a bear market, but rather a scripted way to economize on the continuation of a bull market whose demise is long overdue.  Well, yes, it's always possible a bear market has begun, but we'll likely do better looking for DIA to recover its footing somewhere in the range 320-327.  I am not using Hidden Pivots to project lows there, by the way, but rather the common-sense assumption that the important March 25 bottom at 320.62 is likely to hold. _______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 11:46 p.m. ET): After last week's decisive breakdown, DIA has rallied to trip a 'conventional' buy signal at x=339.49 shown in this chart. I don't much trust the signal, and so I am not recommending a trade. We rarely initiate one on this kind of signal, but I'll warm to the idea if bulls take on midpoint resistance at p=347.92 [corrected] with gusto.

We shouldn't be too surprised if bitcoin mania resurfaces a fourth time following a brutal correction, but first it will need to visit sufficient pain on all of the yahoos who got their feet wet above $40,000 to make them think twice about doing anything so foolish again. Those who got in at much lower prices -- for hundreds of dollars, even -- will of course continue to sit tight, putting a floor under the cryptocurrency somewhere between $20k and $30k. For now, though, it looks like BRTI is about to test support for a third time at p=31,800 (see inset).  This Hidden Pivot has proven resilient enough to make its decisive breach no better than an even-odds bet, assuming BRTI gets there at all.  We'll be watching in any event for signs that bitcoin's most ardent, deep-pocketed sponsors are cocky enough to hold the line at 30,000, even if they don't really have to just to prove something to skeptics. ______ UPDATE (Jun 21, 11:37 p.m. ET): Even though bitcoin has been down by as much as $3500 today, it looks well nigh invincible. China took a meat cleaver to bitcoin miners, and yet bears cannot even push this vehicle down to 30,000. Its deep-pocketed sponsors evidently believe that a test of that seemingly important number is so widely expected that it can't happen because bears have already sold out. We shall see, but BRTI acts as though it is well under control and being accumulated at these levels. ______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 10:14 a.m.): This morning's plunge made it clear that bitcoin-lovers are waiting for still-better prices. The decisive breach of p=31,800 AND 30,000 in one fell swoop implies BRTI will now fall to at least p2=26,422.  And yes, I am impressed at how They held it aloft

The pattern shown (inset) is pure sausage, with a point 'B' high that occurred in the middle of nowhere. However, it is gnarly enough to work anyway. In practice, this means you can 'mechanically' buy a pullback to the green line (4201.60), stop 4165.00, and also rely on D=4310.75 to precisely cap the rally. The futures stalled Friday at the 4238.00 midpoint pivot, but my gut feeling is that they will leave it in the dust on Monday, all but guaranteeing a finishing stroke to at least 4310.75. You can get short there with a generous stop-loss if you've profited on the way up. Since volume in the June contract will dry up by midweek, here's the September contract, using the same pattern and a target at 4300.00. _______ UPDATE (Jun 14, 10:29 p.m.): Unless you're a masochist, there is no reason to be trading this little POS other than in relationship to my Hidden Pivot levels and targets. Notice that it spent the entire day ratcheting lower in such a way that anyone who was short endured Chinese water-torture. Then, in the final 30 minutes, DaScumballs got it all back and then some with a short-squeeze calculated to keep the pressure on during the night session. This is mother nature's way of telling you that you should be trading this little monster only from the long side to begin with, and that furthermore, there is no way it will embark on a potentially tradeable countertrend until it has reached p2=4274.38 (or, basis the September, p2=4263.88). _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 12:23 a.m.):  I'm going fishin'. Back later. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. ______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 6:55 p.m.): A ten-thousand lemmings went postal on the non-news today that the Fed just might start the dreaded "taper" in, oh, maybe a couple of years. The

Gold turned leaden last week, although it managed to hold its own against the takedown artists.  Buying interest in bullion was nil as the action shifted back to the lunatic stocks. Usually that begets a gratuitous $100 swoon in gold, but DaBoyz evidently couldn't round up the few sellers it would have taken to accomplish this. The result was another week's consolidation at an 1880.49 midpoint pivot associated with a rally target, previously given, at 2082.40 (see inset).  Bulls were on the run at the close, however, so here's a downtrending ABC pattern you can use to judge whether the selling is likely to continue.  It tripped an enticing 'mechanical' short on the bounce to  the green line (1892.70), but I doubt the futures will fall as far as the 1850.20 target.  If they do, you can bottom-fish there with a tight stop-loss, good till 10 a.m. ET Monday. _____ UPDATE (Jun 14, 10:18 a.m. ET): The trade recommended above worked nicely, producing a gain so far of up to $7600 for anyone who got long at 1850.s0 as advised.  Here's the chart.  A stop-loss at 1845.60 or lower would have held the position.  Use a target of 1880.10 for what remains of your position.  That is 'd' of this rabc set-up on the 60-minute chart: a=1871.80 on 6/10 at 9:00 a.m. ET.  _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 12:25 a.m.): The pullback to x=1854.3 generated a mechanical 'buy', but the trade would have been exited on the run-up to within an inch of p=1862.90. I have nothing more to suggest at the moment. ______ UPDATE (Jun 17, 1:13 a.m.): There was no reason for gold to sell off with stocks on the non-news from the Fed, but the fact that it did anyway suggests DaSleazeballs have more control over it, at

Although gold got slapped around last week, silver was having none of it. The July futures ended the week with a decisive pop above p=28.080 (see inset) and a full day of consolidation. This left bulls with an odds-on shot of reaching the 29.07 target this week. If the July contract pulls back to the green line (27.58) first, that would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 27.08.  However, since the implied entry risk on four contracts would be $10,000, I am recommending this trade only to subscribers able to craft a 'reverse abc' or 'camouflage' to cut that down to $2500 or less theoretical. ______ UPDATE (June 14, 9:24 a.m. ET): If you used a 'reverse abc' entry as suggested, you should be out of half the trade with a realized profit of $500, and two contracts remaining. One should be held for a swing at the fences above d=27.76.  Here's a chart that shows it all. _______ UPDATE (9:40 a.m.): The futures just blew past the D rally target of my rABC pattern, so you should be out of 75% of the position. Current gain is around $2300. ______ UPDATE (9:47 a.m.):  The rally has turned explosive, with a so far high at 28.02 that would equate to a profit of around $3,300.  Here's a snapshot from just minutes ago that is already behind the move. _____ UPDATE (Jun 16, 12:28 a.m.): The sloppy trendlessness of the last five weeks has lost my attention. Things were more interesting when the bad guys were still capable of crushing silver on days when the markets turned moodless. _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 1:16 a.m.): Silver's plunge on Wednesday was strongly impulsive on the hourly chart, suggesting that the subsequent bounce will prove to have been merely corrective. Let's give it another day before