The Cubes have achieved escape velocity after triggering a textbook 'mechanical' buy in mid-May at the green line (315.29). Now they looks all but certain to achieve p2=350.90 at a minimum, but buyers will have to impale that pivot to 'guarantee' more upside to D=368.70, a Hidden Pivot resistance that at the moment is no worse than an even bet to be achieved. I am nonetheless tracking a bearish butterfly spread reportedly acquired by a single subscriber: four June 28 280/290/300s. A longshot bet on the unthinkable, he paid an average 0.18 for them. I would advise against trying to buy more, but stay tuned for a possible buy signal on the way up. _____ UPDATE (Jun 24, 8:03 p.m.): The Cubes finally reached the 350.90 rally target I'd said was a shoe-in, but they were unable to hold above it. Let's see what the next day or two brings before we bet the pass line on D=368.70. _______ UPDATE (Jun 26): It took forever, but the Cubes finally achieved the 350.90 rally target I'd all but guaranteed above. No one ever mentions this vehicle in the Trading Room any more, but I'll leave it on the sheets for subscribers who like to butterfly distant strikes. The next one of interest lies at 368.70 (as noted above), but there might be another kind of play if QQQ plummets to p or even x in this updated chart.
IWM, a proxy for small-caps, has become a go-along vehicle, ascending mainly because its handlers are getting a free ride by 'drafting' the Nasdaq 100 and the Cubes. The chart shown projects modest upside to a 237.72 target. The rally pattern, although unconventional, is not gnarly enough to go unnoticed, and that's why we shouldn't count toooooo heavily on the stopping power of 'D'. It can serve nonetheless as a lodestone for the next 7-10 days. One subscriber reported filling a put butterfly spread I'd recommended as a longshot bet: eight Jul 16 215/220/225s for 0.28. If you were unable to buy it, cancel your bid.
When the week ended, bulls held a small edge, having turned the the plunge that began the week into a swoon with a nearly $6000 rally. It triggered a 'mechanical' short at the green line (37,179) but because an earlier shorting signal generated on May 23 took fully two weeks to produce a profit, I didn't recommend a second attempt. Now it's a coin-toss as to whether the rally continues, stopping out a bearish pattern projecting to 26,422, or even to 21,043. However, I'll keep the bar at 45,837 to tell us when it's okay for bitcoin buffs to start getting excited again. In any event, I'll be looking to short this beast rabc-style following a 1400-point (or so) drop from around 41,737. _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 1:25 a.m.): BRTI tripped an rabc short at 40,638, as shown in this chart. No subscribers reported doing a trade, so I have not established a tracking position. If you did, 75% of it should have been covered by now.
August Gold has closed above the red line (1880.40) on all but one day since exceeding it for the first time on May 19. This easy flirtation with a key midpoint resistance suggests that an eventual push to the 2082.40 target is unlikely to be labored. This is not withstanding last week's $45 dive, about which two things could be said: 1) it was not an $80 swoon, as many of them have been since last August's watershed high; and 2) in true bull-market fashion, the plunge has very nearly been recouped in just a day. The pattern shown should work well for 'mechanical' set-ups and profit-taking, but we shouldn't get our hopes too high that we'll be able to augment long positions with such fire-sale bargains on the way up.
July Silver has been on a buy signal since March 4, when it pulled back to the green line (see inset) after vaulting the 28.62 midpoint resistance with a meter to spare. That made a further push to D=35.02 an odds-on bet, even if it has taken three months to return to the midpoint pivot where partial profits were in order. Now we should want to see the futures close for two consecutive days above the red line (28.62) before inferring that silver has launched for an ascent toat least p2=31.82. We'll trade the move using 'reverse abc' patterns and 'camouflage' on the intraday charts, so stay tuned to the Trading Room if you want in.
There was zero chance shorts were not going to get their chains jerked Friday with a feint above the earlier-in-the week high at 4230.00. I said so in the chat room hours before the breakout, but without any great confidence about whether it was bulls or bears who would ultimately get hosed. If it had happened earlier in the session, I would have advised an 'reverse abc' short using this pattern. However, given the way things played out, we'll have to wait and see what Sunday night brings before we can formulate a new strategy. My gut feeling is that the angsty price action will settle in favor of bulls and that we will be lifting our sights accordingly to p2=4325.50, but there's no point in speculating until the new week begins. _______ UPDATE (Jun 8, 10:30 p.m.): What a shock. The futures spasmed up and down, 20 points at a time, without going anywhere! See my post in the chat room this evening if you want a more interesting story. ______ UPDATE (Jun 10, 8:58 p.m.): Even though the futures have spent a week in limbo, there is no reason to think they won't reach the 4310.75 target of this pattern, and soon.
I was going to purge QQQ from the list for lack of interest, but it shall remain for now, since it could conceivably yield a decent short when the Grim Reaper finally comes calling (assuming he doesn't keel over dead himself waiting for this bull market to end). For the moment, I'm mildly persuaded that the epic delusion that has sustained the bull trend will carry the Cubes to new heights: p2=350.90, the secondary pivot of a pattern projecting to as high as 368.70. Meanwhile, I am tracking a low-risk short: four June 280/290/300 put butterfly spreads reportedly acquired Friday by a single subscriber for 0.20. No action will be necessary unless QQQ collapses.
Although the pattern shown, with a 365.67 target, is clear and compelling, bulls have yet to tip their hand with a skirmish at the 350.44 midpoint pivot. They've yet to even reach it, actually, but until they do, and roundly thwomp it, we cannot confidently infer the target will be reached. For now, let p=350.44 serve as our minimum upside target for the near term. The pattern should also be a winner for 'mechanical' set-ups, given the power of the impulse leg. _______ UPDATE (Jun 16, 12:35 a.m.): Bulls look more enfeebled than I could have imagined in May. Five weeks of trying have still yet to reach p=350.44, and I'm not sure whether this is a subtle sign of disaster to come, or perhaps just a minor stroke, but stocks feel leaden.
I moved IWM to the back burner more than a month ago, when its tedious move sideways extended far enough to turn a promising head-and-shoulders pattern into rubbish. The dismal scuddle has continued since, although I hesitate to ascribe this to a realization by the chimps who manage your money that small-caps are more overpriced than they have been at any other time in history. Such facts have seldom discouraged money managers from allocating even more of your hard-earned dollars for astronomically priced crap. Be that as it may, although I will keep IWM on the list for now, I'll update only if it does something remotely interesting. At the moment, that would imply an upthrust exceeding the 230.95 price peak recorded on April 29. Even then, my interest would be more on the short side, using a 'reverse abc' pattern. Make sure the 'Notifications' feature on your account dashboard is checked if you want to stay on top of this very-slowly-developing opportunity. _______ UPDATE (Jun 8, 10:40 p.m. ET): For reasons I mentioned in the chat room this evening, I'll recommend buying some put butterfly spreads. Specifically, you should bid 0.25 for eight Jul 16 215/220/225 'flies, good till canceled, with 0.05 discretion. Check back mid-morning for a possible price adjustment, since this bid may be too niggardly to fill. _______ UPDATE (Jun 9, 9:38 p.m.): A fill was reported at 0.28, but I'll wait for a second before I establish a tracking position. The 0.05 discretion noted above implies you can pay up to 0.30 if you are unable to pry any loose at a lower price.
We've focused on a 2083.90 rally target that remains a strong bet to be reached. More immediately, however, let's train our attention on the 1923.90 target shown, since it could conceivably yield a bull trade over the next day or so. Specifically, I'll recommend bidding 1894.20, stop 1884.20, if the futures have gone no higher than 1916.00. The implied entry risk is $4000 on four contracts, but you can interpolate using the micro-futures to cut that by as much as 90%. As always, an easy move past a Hidden Pivot resistance as clear as this one would be telegraphing a continuation of the rally. _______ UPDATE (June 1, 2:39 p.m. ET): The 1894.20 bid I'd suggested missed the intraday low by just three ticks. I have not established a tracking position, however, because the futures went a tad higher than I'd anticipated before swooning $25 to nearly kiss our stink bid. Several subscribers reported doing the trade nonetheless, and it is sufficiently profitable at the moment -- i.e., around $1000 per contract -- that you should have little difficulty managing the risk. A 1923.90 rally target still obtains. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 10:23 a.m.): Ha-ha. Just when I mention “no takedowns,” DaSleazeballs sock the futures with a $45 loss. The proximal cause of this fake selloff, abetted by evidently still-abundant, fearful clowns, was allegedly ‘bullish’ unemployment data. Stay the course! ______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 9:24 p.m.): Today's sucker-punch had gold reeling for barely an hour. Let's see if the menacing-looking close just off the lows has real teeth. Night owls up for a little excitement can try bottom-fishing at 18.59.20, stop 1858. 50. That's the midpoint HP support, on the 60-minute chart, of a= 1900.50 (7:00 a.m., 6/3). _______ UPDATE (Jun 4, 9:46 a.m.): A low of 1855.6o stopped out the trade before
