Rick’s Picks

Bulls made no progress whatsoever last week toward a 4324.50 target, but that did not make it any less likely to be achieved.  In the meantime, I'll suggest focusing on a more modest objective at 4242.75 that is shown in the chart (inset).  The C-D leg has provided no opportunities so far to get long via a 'mechanical' set-up, but you should be alert to the possibility nonetheless in case the futures swoon.  Accordingly, a bid at the red line (p=  4192.5o) would require a 4175.75 stop-loss, implying about $3300 of initial risk on four contracts. ______ UPDATE (June 1, 3:01 p.m.): Today's gratuitous hump failed to trigger the trade, although it did make it less appealing.  The 4242.75 target remains viable nonetheless. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 9:48 p.m.): Reaching the 4242.75 target should have been a piece of cake, but the futures' failure to so should be viewed as warning of a possible bearish tone change. They are currently on a 'mechanical' short triggered at 4199.00 and predicated on a 4106.00 target. Here's the chart, which was discussed in the chat room as the trade was setting up. 

The pattern shown implies the Cubes are likely to reach D=368.67, a target 11% above that corresponds to one that I've proffered for DIA. The easy pop through p=333.06 lends weight to this forecast, as does the profitable 'mechanical' buy triggered two weeks ago at x=315.26. The pattern is obviously working for both trading and analysis, and we should therefore calibrate opportunities on the lesser charts to the Hidden Pivot levels on this one.  The next would follow a pullback from p2=350.87, but we may be able to design an entry trigger using 'rabc' on the lesser charts to get aboard without having to wait.  Stay tuned if you are interested. _____ UPDATE (Jun 3, 9:58 p.m. ET): Anyone home?  Bid 0.20 for four June 28 280/290/300 put butterflies, day order.  If you don't know how, watch the lesson on butterfly spreading available via your account page. This is a longshot bet on an imminent plunge.

The pattern shown, with a 383.00 target that lies 11% above, is just gnarly enough to work. It is similar to one featured in the Hidden Pivot Method Course, and it has the particular advantage of being invisible to most other chartists and traders. Price action at p is not exactly reassuring on whether D will be reached, but p2=361.90 looks like a good bet as a minimum upside projection for the next 4-6 weeks. A swoon to the green line (319.69) would most surely raise the kind of fears that 'mechanical' bids thrive on, but for now we'll concentrate on trades of smaller degree in order to trade with the trend. That would imply rabc patterns on the hourly chart, going back no more than two weeks. _______ UPDATE (Jun 3, 10:06 p.m.): Bid 0.20 for four Jun 30 320/325/330 put butterfly spreads, day order.  The order may be tough to fill at that price, so stay tuned for a possible intraday adjustment.

Bitcoin will likely need to fall below 30k and consolidate for at least a few more weeks before it can attempt a fresh start. Even so, a feint beneath the January low at 28,810 would set up an enticing rabc 'buy', using the 47,059 low recorded on April 30 as the point 'a' low of the trigger pattern. On the off-chance that it simply takes off without further consolidation, a close for two consecutive weeks above p=48,065 would be needed to allay my skepticism. Alternatively, and as noted here earlier, a pop above 51,556 would be persuasive as well, but any less should be regarded as mere noise. _______ UPDATE (Jun 5): I've lowered the bar to 45,837 to tell us when this vehicle is once again worthy of our close attention. That's where the first significant 'external' peak lies in this chart.  Alternatively, BRTI is on a 'mechanical' sell signal that implies more downside to 26,422 (480-minute, A=51,556 on 5/14).  Here's the picture. 

IWM did what I asked of it, generating an impulse leg with a pop above a prior peak at 225.93. However, I'm going to treat this feeble display of bravado as a mere annoyance for now, since it occurred in the context of a chart that has been boring us to death for nearly four months. Granted, this could be the breakout that the portfolio chimps have been holding in reserve until no one cares. But if that's the case, let them push IWM above the 230.95 peak recorded on April 29 to command our attention. My inclination in any event is to trade it solvely with 'rabc' patterns, implying we will buy only on weakness.

June Gold has consistently been exceeding minor targets while showing increasing resistance to the $50 takedowns that have plagued bullion since last summer. This gives me increasing confidence that the 2083.90 target shown will be achieved. It was first broached here six weeks ago, a feature of a bullish 'reverse ABC' pattern that looks unlikely to fail us. That means not only that the levels can be used for 'mechanical' entries, but also that last week's penetration of p=1880.10 was undeniably bullish. Notice that the thrust also took out two 'external' peaks from January, adding further evidence that the bozos who have impeded gold in its role as an inflation hedge are finally starting to smarten up. This is good news for gold bugs, though not so much for lovers of bitcoin. ______ UPDATE (May 25, 10:51 p.m. ET): June Gold was wafting effortlessly higher late Tuesday, having pushed through round-number resistance at 1900 with little hesitation. The futures looked bound most immediately for the 1918.60 target shown in this chart, but an easy move past it would telegraph still more upside over the near term. _______ UPDATE (May 27, 5:58 p.m.):  We'll use the pattern shown, with a 1944.90 target,  for the time being.  The futures would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal on a pullback to x=1882.70, but because initial risk would be more than $2000 with the required stop-loss at 1861.90, I'll recommend the trade only to those who are able to cut it down to size with a 'camouflage' set-up.  _______ UPDATE (May 28, 11:06 p.m.):  The trade worked perfectly off a textbook-perfect pattern that has produced a so-far gain of around $1700 per contract. The trampoline bounce followed an 1880.90 low just 80 cents beneath the suggested bid.  In practice, the trade would have produced a quick and

Although the bullish pattern shown is very different from gold's, it has the same encouraging energy and vitality. Its 31.51 target looks very do-able, and although we have a higher one at 35.02, this lesser pattern should suit us better for the near term. That means a pullback to x=25.718, however unlikely, would offer an excellent opportunity to get long in order to augment a bullish position or perhaps initiate a new one.  More immediately, the robustly impulsive ABC pattern begun from 26.78 on 5/13 could prove useful for setting up an entry trigger on charts of lesser degree. Stay tuned to the chat room, and don't hesitate to make your interest known, even if you are new to Rick's Picks. Crowdsourcing is encouraged as always.

The 4324.50 rally target shown, a 4% climb from here, has two things to recommend it: 1) the ABCD pattern is too gnarly to get noticed by anyone but us; and 2) it assumes yet another boring leg up in a 12-year-plus bull market whose last gasp has become difficult to imagine let alone predict. Rather than try, we'll simply accept the all-but-inevitable for now and go with the flow.  There is just one small caveat: Friday's high stopped out shorts whose hopes had accumulated over a two-day period before getting bayonetted. That implies that if the so-far pullback does not intensify Sunday night/Monday, shorts are setting themselves up to get murdered again.  Juicy as it is, do not plan on shorting the 4324.50 target unless you have made some bucks on the way up. Alternatively, in the unlikely event the futures fall hard when the week begins, use p=4084.50 as a minimum -- and precise -- downside target (A=4230.25 on the hourly chart, 5/10/21). The short would trigger at x=4134.75. _______ UPDATE (May 25, 5:16 p.m. ET): Weakness tripped a 'reverse abc' sell signal at 4181.75 about an hour before the close. Immediate potential is to p=4150.75, with a 4213.00 stop-loss that implies initial theoretical risk of around $1500 per contract. I'd recommend paring that down to $200-$300 or so by executing the trade camouflage-style on the five-minute chart. You can also paper-trade this one if you are new to 'rabc' entries and camouflage.  _______ UPDATE (May 26, 5:25 p.m.): The short is still live and looks pretty good, actually. This is notwithstanding the fact that the position remains in the red and that bulls have been extremely reluctant to let this brick fall. _______ UPDATE (May 27, 6:10 p.m.): Oh, well. The position is a micron from being stopped

Bitcoin's swings have been so violent lately that you could almost forget that it's just another trading vehicle, the unwitting slave of Hidden Pivots.  For all of last week's whoops, swoons and histrionics, it looks bound for p=31,800 of the pattern shown. That would leave open the possibility, per 'Matt's Curse,' of a rally exceeding C=42,557 to negate the bearish pattern.  For trading purposes, I'll recommend using a 'reverse abc' pattern where a=38,226 ( 5/20 at 2:00 p.m. ET).  Initial theoretical risk would be $1007 per unit. Plant your point 'c' low only if and when this vehicle has come down to at least 31,820. Alternatively, and only if you understand the risks of trading this rabid badger, you could buy 31,820 with a stop-loss as tight as 31,300 (that's 1.5%). ______ UPDATE (9:43 p.m.): The 'reverse abc' trade suggested above would have produced a gain of at least $1o11 in under 20 minutes if you bought one lot at x and cashed it out at the red line. Here's a chart that shows it.  Alternatively, notice that BRTI subsequently tripped a textbook-perfect 'mechanical' entry at x when it pulled back to the green line around 2 p.m.  That trade could have been worth as much as $12,000 if you had bought a typical, four-lot position and held it to D=35,185. Our usual practice is to exit half at p, another 25% at p2 and the rest at D. That would have netted you a little more than $7,000. If you did either of these trades please let me know in the chat room what vehicle you used, since I am still trying to determine which bitcoin proxy to use for trade recommendations. _______ UPDATE (May 25, 11:05 p.m.): An uncorrected pop through both peaks, the higher of which lies at