Rick’s Picks

The ascent toward a 12,741 target [please note that this has been corrected to correspond to the chart] has been a tortuous, ten-week slog ever since the futures tripped a theoretical buy signal eleven weeks ago at 11172. We've had a couple of 'mechanical' winners along the way, but last week's high just shy of the target suggests the pattern's usefulness is spent. The actual high at 12677 missed by 64 points, or 0.5%, and although the target is still valid in theory, its only practical value for us now is that a decisive breach would suggest buyers have sufficient energy for a further push into new-record territory. Most immediately, we should be especially cautious, since it's conceivable that an important top is in.

After watching 50 hours of Giuliani hearings, here is my connect-the-dots summary: The plot to steal the election was brilliant, elegant and well-financed, probably by Soros. It required only a relative handful of precincts and mid-to-high-level planners to succeed – as few as 30 people in all, including foot soldiers. The fixers trained their efforts on just a half-dozen counties – all the precincts needed  to swing a close election or solidify a Biden win. Parallel, massive fraud took place in most states as well, but it was not centrally planned or directed. Think ‘jihadi cells’ acting on their own. Evidence of the latter is overwhelming, blatant and largely provable, but it is just a smokescreen. So far, the smokescreen has worked in both a legal and PR sense: It provided instances of fraudl so numerous that it made legal charges of overarching scandal difficult to prove, hard to encapsulate in court filings and easy to ridicule. Dominion (i.e., Soros) played a key role they will not be able to deny. Their reps were on hand 24/7 in the key precincts, and they were observed and photographed by workers whose suspicions had been aroused. (Very solid evidence has left Dominion dead-to-rights regardless of what the New York Piece of Shit Times says.) The plan would have succeeded but for one factor that was wholly unanticipated: a Trump landslide. This forced late-hour vote-dumps so large that they were bound to be detected. The smoking-gun video produced in yesterday’s GA hearing is sufficient alone to push legislators in the contested states to do the right thing. Although decertifying elections in their respective states will be the most difficult choice they have ever faced, few of them will want to be held responsible for putting their stamp of approval on an election that stinks to high

There are unfulfilled rally targets at 3769 and 3802 that have kept us confidently on the right side of the trend regardless of news or mood swings. More immediately, however, last week's powerfully impulsive price action has created a lesser, bullish pattern with a 3727.50 target that is all but certain to be achieved, probably by no later than Wednesday. A tradeable stall at this Hidden Pivot seems likely, and I am therefore recommending a tightly stopped short to anyone who has made money on the way up. As always, an easy move through a target implies the trend is likely to continue, usually after a correction. _______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 5:03 p.m.): Time to start paying attention, since the futures are closing on p=3728.00 (slightly adjusted from above), the first place where a major trend failure could occur.  Although I still believe the somewhat higher targets for the larger pattern cited above will be achieved, you can attempt a very tightly stopped (i.e., 1.25-2.00 points) short at 3728.00. Here's the chart, and although it lacks a one-off 'A', the pattern otherwise is quite appealing. _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 7:52  p.m.): The futures traded no higher than 3715, so we were unable to squeeze off a short on our terms. The downdraft created an impulse leg on the hourly chart, but  let's give it a day to see what bears can do with it. _______ UPDATE (Dec 19, 5:52): The selling turned gutless on day two and is struggling to reach a 3630.25 downside target.  If DaBoyz can squeeze this hoax above 3681.25 overnight, they will likely be in charge as the week comes to an end. Here's a fresh chart that shows everything. _______ UPDATE (Dec 11, 9:55 a.m.): The 3630.25 target came within two points of  nailing a

The 25.85 rally target advertised here last week still obtains, as does a 'mechanical' buy down at 21.73, stop 20.35.  The move has been one of the most powerful we've seen in any vehicle since this record-breaking bull began on March 23. There has been only one correction worthy of the name in the last two months, and it lasted just four days.  Last Monday's huge gap-up opening popped GBTC out of its brief funk with such force that bears struggled unsuccessfully all week to bring it back down to a more attractive price. Their failure will have bullish consequences looking ahead, including a likely easy thrust past the target on first contact. ________ UPDATE (Dec 8, 5:20 p.m. EST): Numerous subscribers did the trade recommended above, so I am establishing a tracking position: long 200 shares at 21.73, stop 20.35, with a price target of 25.85. The corrective move well into last week's three-point gap feels treacherous, but the trade was selected strictly by-the-numbers. _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 8:32 a.m.): The trade was stopped out for a $276 loss. Bitcoin vehicles that trade 24/7  have recovered sharply overnight from an abysmal low, but they are still below the levels that obtained at 4:00 p.m. EST Tuesday, when this vehicle stopped trading. The trade failed mainly because it did not take advantage of a key aspect of mechanical set-ups -- i.e., that they work best in vehicles tracing out particularly violent swings.  In this case, I should have advised buying at the green line, which would have taken a violent pullback indeed to achieve, rather than at the red line, which reflected a merely modest correction. The risk thereof would have been in missing the trade because the retracement did not reach the green line. If it does, you can

Last week's 12540 high came within 10 points, or 0.08%, of a minor Hidden Pivot target at 12550 target. However, the pullback from that number was shallow, and the futures looked like they were raring to go when time ran out. If they are up and at 'em on Sunday night and trading above the target -- as why should they not? -- I'd suggest using the 12804 target of a larger pattern that has been theoretically in play for more than two months. The pattern is sufficiently clear that we should expect a pullback from very close to it. However, it looks too obvious to be worth much for trading purposes. A tw0-day close above 12804 would put 12969 in play (daily, A= 10,942 on 11/2).  Using the smaller pattern, you could get long 'mechanically ' on a swoon to 11869, stop 11502. _______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 5:25 p.m. EST): The futures spent two days consolidating above a middling Hidden Pivot resistance at 12,550, implying there's buying power enough to take them higher. _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 8:11 p.m.): If the futures touch the red line, that would trigger a 'mechanical' buy with a stop-loss at 11,992.  I suggest this trade only if you are able to forge a 'camouflage' entry trigger that reduces theoretical initial risk to no more than $300 per contract. Please note that the straight-up entry as given above would carry entry risk of $4,880 per contract. _______ UPDATE (Dec 10, 6:10 p.m.):  A 'mechanical' bid placed where I'd advised would have caught the low of a rally worth as much as $4400 intraday. Only one subscriber expressed an interest in the trade or a variant of it, so I have not established a tracking position.

The futures have been slogging painfully toward an 1871.80 rally target that still looks like a good bet to be achieved. That implies a pullback to the green line (1829.40) can be used to get long 'mechanically' with a stop-loss at 1815.20, just beneath the pattern's point 'C' low.  A position with at least two contracts is suggested in order to allow profit-taking on an initial move from x to p= 1843.60.  If the Feb contract thrusts higher from the get-go on Sunday night, I wouldn't suggest chasing it. A second 'mechanical' entry might be possible nonetheless on a pullback from just above p2=1857.70. _______ UPDATE (Dec 7, 11:36 a.m.): A powerful rally this morning has pushed the futures to 1873.00, slightly above my target.  If you followed my simple instructions, which were predicated on buying two contracts at the green line and taking a partial profit at the red line, you came away with a profit of $5,660. Please report results in the chat room so that I can better gauge interest in this trading vehicle.  For now, let's see how long D=1871.80 holds as resistance. The sooner it is dispatched, if it is, the more bullish. _______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 5:43 p.m.): Price  action at p=1862.00 all but guarantees more upside over the near term to at least 1899.10. Round-number resistance will be an additional impediment, but if bulls can punch through both they should be presumed headed to at least 1967.00 (daily, A=1699.50 on 6/5).  Here's the chart.  _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 9:17 a.m.): You can buy a pullback to x=1843.40 'mechanically' using a stop-loss at 1824.70. _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 8:22 p.m.): In the chat room, I suggested scratching the trade because of belatedly perceived weaknesses in the A-B impulse leg. Those who'd opened a position

The 24.78 rally target we used last week is still in play, but the futures may have done too much consolidating over the last several days to suggest they will be satisfied with a mere 53-cent move above Friday's close. If they pop above it we can use a larger, far more ambitious pattern that projects to as high as 34.67. First the futures would need to achieve p=28.30, a minimum upside projection that became viable on this chart back on October 9. The futures have not tripped any opportune 'mechanical' buying signals in a long while, but for now we'll take the optimistic view. ______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 8:25 p.m.): To avoid mental fatigue, I've suggested averting our eyes for a day or two in gold. I'll now suggest doing the same in silver. _______ UPDATE (Dec 12, 6:03 p.m.): That felt pretty good, actually. This time, let's try averting our eyes for an entire week. If the futures break down, p2=20.68 will the the first stop, and then D=18.82 (daily, A= 29.38 on 9/1). ________ UPDATE (Dec 15, 5:53 p.m.): Today's rally generated a robust impulse leg on the hourly chart that portends a test of last week's highs near 25.00. If they are easily surpassed, look for more upside over the near term to 26.66 (60-min, A=22.04 on 11/30; B= 25.015 on 12/8).

The Mother of All Rallies is closing on a potentially important target at 3802.00 where 'selling the news' will become an opportune bet. It would become still moreso if the election is settled when the futures get there, vaccine euphoria is in high gear and the Wall Street Journal is doing its patriotic best to convince us that all is right with the world.  From a technical standpoint, the futures blew past the red line with such force on September 9 that there can be little doubt they will reach the D target. The only caveat is that a bigger picture pattern has a 3769.00 target that could conceivable stop the rally cold.  Either way, a potentially important top looms at a time when the din of bullish hubris is so loud that it could practically make one bleed from the ears.

Bitcoin came down hard after topping last week, but not before impaling a crucial long-term Hidden Pivot with enough brio to demonstrate that bulls are still in charge. If more proof of this were needed, a well-known figure in the bitcoin world 'leaked' word that bitcoin 'might' come under hard scrutiny before Trump leaves office. Pretty feeble, but the story served its purpose, causing many weak sisters to dive out of their shares.  It's too early to tell how far the correction will go, but the bounce from Friday's 17.60 looks likely to push well into a gap from Friday morning that started at 20.87.  _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 9:18 p.m.): The powerful gap up through p=21.73 all but guarantees that the D target at 25.85 will be reached.  A pullback first to x=19.66, however unlikely, would trigger an opportune 'mechanical' buy, stop 17.59. Here's the chart.  _______ UPDATE (Dec 1, 8:52 p.m.): You can hazard a 'mechanical' bid at 21.73, the red line, stop 20.35, since GBTC seems unlikely to revisit the green line. This new gambit is riskier but still looks like it will yield better-than-even odds.