Rick’s Picks

December Gold has struggled quietly since tripping a theoretical buy signal at 1941.30 more than two weeks ago.  The 2142.40 target still looks likely to be reached, but the presumptive consolidation has grown more than a little tedious. Bears could not have gotten much satisfaction either, since, except for a savage pounding they administered the second week of August, the futures have refused to give up any ground. Regardless, the December contract still needs to close above p=2008.30 for two consecutive days, or trade above 2030 (or so) intraday, to make a run-up to the target an odds-on bet.  The gratuitous swings are tradeable in the meantime, but only with diligent attention intraday.

The burden of proof rests with bulls for the time being, since the rally from Aug 11-18 failed to surpass a distinctive 'external' peak at 44.18 (see inset). If the corresponding ABC downtrend were to play out, a touch at 42.48 would trigger a 'mechanical' short with a 37.64 price objective.  This is blandly objective analysis, but I must tell you that I'm not thrilled with the prospect of shorting GDX, given the difficulties sellers have had pushing gold lower over the last two weeks. I'll recommend watching from the sidelines for a couple of days, although there are always ways to trade the lesser charts with risk well controlled. I have crowdsourced this task but will join in the discussion if the interest is there. ______ UPDATE (Sep 3, 10:27 p.m.) The paper-trade short has gone as much as $205 in-the-black and is still profitable, predicated on a 37.64 target. Two successively higher Friday closes would turn stochastic indicators on the weekly chart bullish. ______ UPDATE (Sep 5): The short position is showing a theoretical gain of around $650 on four round lots. I'll suggest a 41.81 stop-loss for now, o-c-o with an order to cover the position four cents above the 37.64 target. ______ UPDATE (Sep 9, 11:48 p.m.): My bad, since half of the short position should have been covered last week at p=40.87. The trade produced  a $244 theoretical profit nonetheless. I am taking a vacation from GDX for a while, since it is too much trouble to track -- the most annoying vehicle on the list. I will wade into the discussion nonetheless if subscribers show active interest in  this vehicle in the Trading Room.

AAPL shredded its way past two imposing Hidden Pivots with such ease on Friday that there can be little doubt it will reach the 537.23 target shown in the chart. This seems likely to occur before the stock splits 4-to-1 next Monday, yielding a 134.30 price at the target. The split is meaningless technically, but it has a reason that holds very significant implications for Apple shareholders. The sole purpose of the split is to broaden the ownership base so that the fat cats who have owned the stock since it was trading for under $100 can quietly distribute it to a million greater fools who implicitly believe the company is worth $2 trillion. At $134 a share, acrophobia will no longer be a factor, nor will the sense of foreboding that investors sometimes get when a stock has run up as spectacularly as AAPL has. The pattern shown is all but guaranteed to work for 'mechanical' entries, assuming there is a pullback sufficient to get us aboard. I doubt this will occur, at least on the hourly chart, but all trades should be initiated with a bullish bias that assumes nothing can prevent the stock from reaching 537.23.  I've implied this could take a week, but at the rate things are going, the  target could be hit as early as Monday. If so, we should see a pop above the pink line (p2=512.03) Sunday night. This is shades of 'Radio,' circa 1929  and it is not going to end well. It will take a while, however -- many months, perhaps -- for DaBoyz to distribute perhaps $1 trillion of stock to the rubes before reality sets in. The fact that much of the distribution will occur at levels equivalent to a ridiculous 537.23 is a tribute to the evil

I was more eager to short this rabid weasel when it tiptoed to within an inch of the 3402.75 target last week. However, the subsequent dive-and-bounce histrionics seem too strenuous to produce a merely marginal higher high when index futures resume trading Sunday night. To get just a step ahead of hard technical evidence, my gut feeling is that the futures will blow past p with such force that we can confidently assume they are one their way to the 3486.00 target of the pattern shown. You can short 3402.75 nonetheless, but approach it as a day trade -- i.e., with a tight stop and expectations of just a small profit. This one may trigger Sunday evening, so night owls should be alert to that possibility when they return to their screens. _______ UPDATE (Aug 24, 6:27 p.m.):  After a stumble in the first hour, the futures powered their way to another impressive gain. They should be presumed headed most immediately to at least 3444.38, the 'secondary' Hidden Pivot of the pattern projecting to 3486.00. Be alert to a possible stall there and, provided you know how, an opportunity to get short using an 'rABC' setup on the lesser intraday charts. _______ UPDATE (Aug 25, 6:18 p.m.): The 3486.00 target has the potential to create a major top, and I'd suggest you get short there in some way or fashion, even if it means interpolating with puts in SPY. I will be traveling tomorrow and not in the trading room, but you should stay close to the room for crowdsourced ideas if you're interested in the trade.  The 3486.00 target has been drum-rolled for long enough to be mildly jinxed, but don't let that put you off. It deserves to be shorted come what may. If the futures blow past

Gold looks like a coin toss right now, with dueling impulse legs pointing in both directions. However, I'd bet on bulls to achieve the 2142.50 target eventually, even if the December contract corrects down to d=1837.10 first (see inset). The key, oddly enough, will be how quickly AAPL achieves its bull-market target at 537.23. They don't ring a bell at market tops, as the saying goes, but the 4-to-1 stock split in AAPL next Monday is for all intents and purposes the bell that will signal an end to the most dollar-consequential mania in stock-market history.  If the target does in fact prove to be the top in AAPL -- the 4-to-1 split price would be 134.30 -- gold could begin moving higher before the bottom drops out of shares. The most important caveat is the dollar, which is groping for a bottom and may have made one already. A strong dollar will put pressure on bullion, to be sure, but the effect would become muted over time due to rising perceptions that the world is going to hell in a handbasket. Nothing could hasten that perception more than shifting odds of a Biden victory. This is an outcome that very obviously is NOT priced into the market, and I am predicting a Trump landslide myself. But even four more years of Trump offers no guarantees that the global economy will pull out of its pandemic-induced tailspin. The resulting writedowns of capital that are already in motion --  New York City, for one, and a dozen other large cities that taxpayers are fleeing -- represent a deflationary enormity almost beyond imagining. It is coming, though, and that's why the stock market must fall, with AAPL leading the way. It could take as long as four to six months for the

Silver's bullishness at the moment is less ambiguous than gold's. Specifically, a 'mechanical' buy that I recommended last week at 26.98 has yet to be stopped out after producing gains reported by numerous subscribers. Officially the position was closed out after I exited it myself with a profit and a note in the chat room. As far as I can tell, no one still holds any contracts. If the futures were to fall to the stop-loss and continue down to the green line (x=25.281), that would trigger a second 'mechanical' buy that would be moderately enticing.  We'll have to wait and see whether bulls can hang tough this week against a possible onslaught of FAANG-mania, but if they do, look for a push to the 30.385 target for starters. Alternatively, a bearish resolution could be expected to push the futures down to 22.755 (60-min, a= 29.440 on 8/10 at 7:00 p.m. ET). ______ UPDATE (Aug 25, 6:58 p.m.): Although silver got socked pretty hard for a few hours two weeks ago, bears have struggled ever since to finish the job. A week of trying has not pushed the September futures down to p=25.863, and if this doesn't happen by week's end bulls will be in good position to seize the upper hand Sunday night. Alternatively, a decisive breach of the midpoint pivot would put p2=24.209 in play, or even 22.755 (noted above) as a maximum downside target. ______ UPDATE (Aug 26, 9:35 p.m.): The legitimacy of the impulse leg in  this pattern  may be subtle, but it's good enough to raise the odds for winning 'mechanical' setups enroute to D=31.075.  This task can be crowd-sourced since chat room interest in Silver has been high.  Use p=28.585 as a minimum upside target for now. ______ UPDATE (Aug 27, 10:15 p.m.): Today's fevered

The 283.76 rally target shown in the chart has gotten billboard exposure on the home page for so long that it can hardly be expected to work. Even so, I'll recommend taking a small short position when QQQ gets there, buying the first close-to-expiring puts you can find trading for under $1.00. Do NOT go out farther in time so that the trade has more time to work; this is a losing strategy. If the trade works the way it's supposed to, you should see a nominal profit within 30-60 minutes of your entry. Since we are going against the most powerful rally in history and odds will therefore be against us, you should risk no more on this speculation than you can lose painlessly. The trade should be executed with QQQ no farther from the target than 0.03-0.06 points.  Stop yourself out if QQQ trades above 285.00 intraday. _______ UPDATE (Aug 24, 9:22 a.m. ET): Cancel the trade, since QQQ has gapped through the target ahead of this morning's opening. This is remarkable, considering how clear and compelling the resistance was. It attests to the demented strength of the rally. _______ UPDATE (Aug 25, 7:55 pm.): There is little point in proferring rally targets as potential tops, since even the most obstinate of them withstands the onslaught for no more than a day or two. QQQ has spent the last two days developing thrust for a push above a 286.28 target that came into play when 283.76 gave way. Now, assuming it falls as well, we'll be looking at a run-up to 292.41. It will become an odds-on bet if and when buyers push the Cubes above p=286.84.  Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Aug 26, 10:03 p.m.):  The 292.41 target flagged above caught the top of today's rampage within a

My skepticism toward last Monday's spiky run-up was vindicated when GDX sold off for the remainder of the week. Although punitive, the reversal did no serious technical damage to the intraday charts. However, the failure of buyers to push above a 44.18 'external' peak recorded on August 10 has shifted the burden of proof to bulls. If they cannot mobilize early in the week, look for GDX to continue falling to 39.30, or possibly 37.69 if any lower. Alternatively, the chart pattern could be resolved in bulls' favor with a two-day close above 43.35. That is a midpoint resistance and it is shown in this chart. It's tied to a 47.80 target. _______ UPDATE (Aug 25, 8:07 p.m. ET): A three-day, $2.47 plunge looks to have reversed today from a low 29 cents above the 39.30 target above.  You'll be on your own managing the risk if you bought near the bottom, but it will likely be with the wind at your back because of the well-time entry. _______ UPDATE (Aug 26, 10:14 p.m.): Several traders reported getting in near the low, so I am establishing a tracking position of 400 shares @ 39.70. Use a 40.76 stop-loss today, o-c-o with a closing offer on 200 shares at 42.03. ______ UPDATE (Aug 27, 10:33 p.m.): The tracking position produced a $678 gain on an extremely wild day.  Half was exited in the opening minutes at 42.34, where  GDX opened, and the rest was stopped out for an additional gain of $212.  We held no position at the close, nor do I suggest jumping in again at this time.

We've been using a 285.16 price objective for months, but it is not even a 'D' target, just the secondary pivot of an unambitious pattern that projects to 297.18. It has been a long slog -- one not particularly well suited to naked-call strategies. A perfectly timed bet on Aug 28 280 calls would have made you a few bucks, but not much more. As always, the key was to have taken off half of the position after the options doubled in price early on.  The ride to 285.16 from here is a no-brainer, and DIA could eventually make it to 297.18, but I have no simple option strategies to recommend. Here's one that sounds harder to do than it is -- a call butterfly centered on the 295 strike:  Buy the Oct 2 295/300/305 'fly for around 0.20. This implies shorting two 300 calls and buying a 295 call and a 305 call for a net debit of 20 cents ($20). The most you can lose is $20 per spread, but if the stock is trading near 300 at expiration, you could make as much as $500 per spread (although $260-$320 would be more realistic).  Work out the value of the options in this position with DIA trading at various prices between 250 and 350 if you want to understand exactly how butterfly spreads work. You could also do a 'rolling'  calendar spread, buying Oct 16 300 calls for 1.25 while shorting Sep 4 300 calls against them for 0.10. When the latter expire, you would short Sep 11 calls; then, the next Friday, Sep 18 calls. If DIA continues to move higher, the premium you would take in for each successive short sale would continue to increase. Ideally, DIA would be trading for around 300 on Oct 16,