Corn

Having recently caught the low of a very tradable, 35-cent bounce within a penny, we have little to fear if Corn continues to do its nasty worst. I still like the bullish story concerning an imminent surge in demand from China, notwithstanding Friday's news that stockpiles were nearly a quarter higher than had been estimated just three weeks ago. Does anyone smell a USDA rat?  Anyway, since we can get long at will anywhere we please, and do so using Hidden Pivots that will help reduce our risk or even allow a profit if we're wrong, I'll continue to call the turns at each promising opportunity. For now, I'll suggest that less experienced traders simply back away, since the futures, having exceeded a clear Hidden Pivot support at 606.00 that comes from the intraday charts, appear bound for a test of  early July's 589.25 low.  If you are confident of your camouflage skills, however, try getting long by buy-stopping the first point X entry that occurs on the 5-minute chart after 589.25 has been exceeded to the downside. ______ UPDATE (1:03 p.m. EDT): Following an overnight low at 586.00, entry as suggested above would have come at 601.75, triggered at 11:05 a.m.  The pattern that provided the entry signal is razor-sharp on the five-minute chart, with single-bar ABC coordinates at, respectively, 590.75, 606.50 and 597.75. For your further guidance, I am establishing a tracking position as follows: long one contract with a cost basis of  587.00.  This implies that four contracts were bought initially, with half of them exited profitably at the 605.75 'p' midpoint of the camouflage pattern, and two more at 613.50, the 'D' target.  For now, stop yourself out if a bearish impulse leg is created on the 10-minute chart.  That implies a print down at  590.50, but the number will change if the futures

If you are long from Monday's bottom, which had been correctly predicted using a 644.50 Hidden Pivot, you should have no more than half of the original position after having taking profits on the rest. A stop-loss for what remains should still be tied to an impulsively bearish move on the hourly chart. Taking  yesterday's price action into account , the exit trigger is now  at 656.75.  Want to learn how to nail swing highs and lows precisely, and to manage trade risk yourself? Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on October 5-6 and a $50 discount.

Our correction target at 644.50 caught yesterday's low within a penny, allowing even those who used a very tight stop-loss to get aboard ahead of a so-far 24-cent rally. If you caught the move, I'd suggest exiting half the position at these levels and tying the rest to an impulse leg-based stop-loss on the hourly chart. This means you should ditch the position if the futures dive through two prior lows without an upward b-c retracement.  At the moment, that would imply a print down at 651.50.  Want to learn how to nail swing highs and lows precisely, and to manage trade risk yourself? Click here for information about the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar on October 5-6 and a $50 discount.

A powerful downdraft in commodities has brought March Corn down to within a hair of a 644.50 traget disseminated here a while back. Traders can still bottom-fish that number as originally advised if camouflage is used to limit risk, but this recommendation should be considered expert play, since the dramatic selling in precious metals could create air pockets in the "softs."

Single-bar coordinates all around make the pattern shown in the chart an enticing one for finding a low-risk place to get long. Of the two possibilities shown, I prefer the higher Hidden Pivot support at 671.50. However, if it gives way easy, rebid (or re-camo) using the 664.50 target of the alternative pattern. _______  UPDATE (12:09 p.m. EDT):  With commodities in a free fall today, March Corn has taken a 13-cent Whoopee Cushion bounce this morning from a low at 673.75.  It has since returned to Earth and is about to crash-land, so we'll cancel the trade. ______ FURTHER UPDATE (12:47 p.m. EDT):  A chat-roomer has convinced me that there's still a trade to be tried here, since the point 'C' of the original pattern was not disturbed by today's mindless violence.  However, if you look at the 60-minute chart, taking the mindless violence in at a glance, the eye naturally shifts north to  higher points 'A'  -- i.e., 762 (9/12) or 756.75 (9/13).  Under the circumstances, the safest trade I can recommend at the moment is to bid or camo-enter near 644.50. The risk is that the futures will turn from a low somewhere above this Hidden Pivot, but if you want to be certain not to miss the trade, you'll need to try a camouflage entry at 664.50 first.  That is the lower of the two numbers given above.  You could also test the water at 671.50, as noted above, and although I would expect a nominally tradable bounce from that number, I doubt any rally would get very far.

The somewhat muddy corrective pattern shown in the chart hints of a tradable low at 694.50.  However, because the pedigree of the Hidden Pivot is dubious, any longs from near it should be initiated via camouflage.  To do so, I'll recommend looking for the turn on the 5- or 10-minute chart if and when the futures come down reach 696.25. _______UPDATE (11:59 a.m. EDT):  The bullish upturn came from 689.50, well below our Hidden Pivot retracement target, and the subsequent rallyeven on the one-minute chart yielded no patterns meeting our requirements for a 'camouflaged' entry opportunity.  There will surely be others, though, so stay tuned.

The 715.75 target shown in this two-minute chart looks very enticing, so I'll suggest buy-stopping the first point 'x' that occurs on an uptrending ABC pattern to get long.  That is simple camouflage, although this pattern looks almost sweet enough to bottom-fish at the pivot itself with a one-point stop-loss.  Note that there is also an 'external' peak at 749.00 that could come in handy not only for determining when bulls are back on the attack, but as a possible lever for a 'camo' trade if the futures don't come down to our 'd' retracement target. _______ UPDATE (3:47 p.m.): The futures have been as low as 714 today, but the initial bounce of 5 cents from very near where we'd expected did not generate any camouflage entry opportunities, even on the one-minute chart.  You should continue to look for such an opportunity at these levels, but be sure to apply the impulse-leg rules rigorously before taking the plunge.  I am not spelling out those rules explicitly here because they are proprietary, but if you have concerns or doubts, I would encourage you to air them in the chat room.

Yesterday's 'buy' recommendation at 738.25 missed catching the low of a so-far $2750 bounce by just two ticks ($62.50), giving us even more incentive to keep trying.  This vehicle may prove a little too cagey for entry tactics such as I'm able to disseminate the night before, and I would therefore encourage you to trade my numbers imaginatively and aggressively, putting your own savvy to work. For now, I'll suggest using the 'd' targets of retracement patterns such as the one shown to bottom-fish.  Note that this is a one-minute chart I'm using, since we may need that level of subtlety to avoid swimming with the sharks who feed on this vehicle. ______ UPDATE (8:08 p.m. EDT): An alert Pivoteer in the chat room noticed that the intraday low occurred precisely at the midpoint support of an obvious pattern on the intraday charts.   Perhaps this vehicle isn't as treacherous as I had originally thought when we began monitoring it closely for the first time a couple of weeks ago.

Once again, I'll suggest tightly stopped bidding for four contracts -- or a camouflage-style buy-stop -- down near 738.25, a still-promising Hidden Pivot support. Officially, we'll use the latter tactic, since it promises to be less risky. ________ UPDATE (10:40 a.m.):  The little egg-sucker has uncorked a $2500-per-contract rally so far this morning after bottoming two ticks above the correction target where we were trying to get long.  I'll score it officially as "nothing done," however, since even on the one-minute chart there were no camouflage patterns to leverage.  The good news is that, barring Armageddon, it is 100% certain there will be other opportunities.  For now, we'll just hang loose while we get to know the little weasel better.