Rick Ackerman

The Dollar Index looks primed for a turnaround for technical reasons noted in my latest $DXY tout. To summarize, we will be using two compelling benchmarks to tell us more:  a Hidden Pivot support just below current levels and a key bottom made in March. If a reversal is coming it would hold bearish implications for gold and other commodities, including a recently resurgent crude oil. This gives us ample reason to monitor the dollar very closely in the days and weeks ahead.

Here are three numbers to jot down to get an accurate and potentially useful 'read' on the aging bull market: 27,436, 28,738 and 33,161. These are 'Hidden Pivot' resistance targets for the Dow Industrials, and any one of them could stop the bull in its tracks. Each is a good place to attempt getting short with a tight stop-loss, but if the stop gets pulped, assume that the next-higher target is in play.  And if the Indoos should hit 29,000 (or so) and then plummet to the green line (24,5740), treat that not as a sign that the long-awaited bear has finally arrived, but as a great buying opportunity. Above 33,161, I have no additional targets to offer. That would be the bull's final charge, as far as I'm concerned, and the best opportunity to get short that we might see in a very long while. Why should you trust these numbers? For one, if you've followed Rick's Picks for any length of time, you'll know that the big-picture forecasts -- for T-Bonds, gold, the U.S. dollar, interest rates,  inflation (or lack of, actually)  and major stock averages -- have gotten it mostly right.  (But not always, as those of you still waiting for crude to hit $28 a barrel would be ready to attest.)  Another reason is that these sunny numbers come not from a hopped up permabull who thinks that decade-old rally will go on forever; rather, they are from someone who could give you a dozen good reasons why the Dow should be trading at 10,000 now, not heading toward 30,000 as would appear to be the case. _______ UPDATE (Jul 16, 8:30 p.m.): Tuesday's high came within an inch of our longstanding target at 27,436, the first of three important stair-step Hidden Pivots. Let's see how

The correction begun from 98.37 a month ago is about to run out of room. For one, there's a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot support at 95.94 where we might expect a turnaround. And if it fails, there's a structural support just below it at 95.74 that's tied to an important low recorded in March. It can be used as a point 'A' for purposes of setting up a counterintuitive buy signal. Regardless of whether you trade this vehicle, a 'CI' buy signal would have bearish implications for gold, which for the last three weeks has been in one of the most promising rallies in years. A strong dollar would affect the entire universe of investable assets, so we'll want to monitor DXY's price action diligently. _______ UPDATE (Jun 27, 5:50 p.m.): The low I'd projected is holding so far, with a bottom 10 cents off the 95.74 support noted above.  However, DXY has not gotten much loft and will remain in the danger zone until such time as it pops above 96.80. _______ UPDATE (Jul 1, 7:37 p.m.): DXY has put some distance between itself and the recent low I'd predicted, but bulls are still not out of  the woods. That would take, for starters, a rally exceeding the 97.76 peak shown in this chart. _______ UPDATE (Jul 30, 10:56 p.m.): The Dollar Index has slightly exceeded the 97.76 peak noted above and now faces key resistance from some peaks recorded in May and June. If and when it exceeds them, look for more progress most immediately to the 99.05 target shown in this chart.

Comex Gold is sharply on the move tonight, approaching a key rally resistance. The August contract has slightly exceeded a longstanding Hidden Pivot target at 1412.20, but corresponding targets in some popular bullion vehicles, including GDX, have yet to be reached. If this occurs on Friday's opening bar, you should be wary of a bull trap.

Bullion’s powerful rally this week has kicked this popular mining-stock vehicle into high gear. I haven’t tracked it in quite a while but aim to do so now, provided it remains feisty and interesting. In that regard, GDX looks like it’s about to ratchet up the interest-level, although not in a way we might have preferred. Notice that Thursday’s energetic short-squeeze brought the ETF within inches of a target at 25.58. This Hidden Pivot resistance can be used as a minimum upside objective for now, but don’t expect GDX to pop through it on the first try. More likely is a pullback of sufficient magnitude that you should consider taking a partial profit or doing covered writes in the range 25.42 – 25.70 if you are long.  Please note that if buyers should blow past D=25.58 with ease, that would imply that the target of a bigger pattern is in play. In this case, it would be 36.67 (!), a Hidden Pivot whose provenance goes back to a low at 12.40 recorded early in 2016. The lower target corresponds to one at 1412 for Comex August Gold that I disseminated to subscribers several weeks ago._______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 8:52 p.m.): Buyers shredded the 25.58 pivot, leaving little doubt about the underlying strength and potential of this move. _______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 8:28 p.m.): I neglected to mention an important Hidden Pivot resistance at 26.98 that can serve as a minimum upside target for the near term (i.e., the next 3-5 days).  It is the C-D midpoint tied to the 36.67 target noted above. Here's a chart that shows it. _______ UPDATE (Jun 26, 9:42 p.m.): GDX tripped a theoretical sell signal at 25.47 that implies it will fall to at least 25.21, or possibly to 24.67, if it slips today.

The futures have taken a powerful leap tonight, topping so far within easy distance of an ambitious, 1412.20 rally target we've been using for the last several weeks. Bloomberg and other bullion sources have not identified the catalyst at this hour, although it could be a statement from Trump that he believes he can replace Powell as Fed chairman. If this is in fact what has caused the spurt, T-Bonds have yet to register their disapproval. Regardless, August Gold would now trigger an old-style 'mechanical' buy if it pulls back to p=1342.70. The required stop-loss would be at 1319.50. (Trading room note this morning from Crusty: A 'counterintuitive' short would trigger on a pullback to 1346.70. We'll reconcile this seeming paradox if such a drop occurs.) _______ UPDATE (Jun 20, 10:54 p.m. ET): August Gold  has surged anew tonight, hitting 1415.40 so far. If it goes no higher, a drop to 1362.60 would signal a 'counterintuitive' short.  I am not recommending the trade, but if it triggers, especially within the next day or two, that would raise the odds that this monster move in gold is about to turn into a bull trap. Alternatively, an easy push past 1415 would suggest the rally is not only real, but sustainable.

With two billion users, Facebook will be sorely challenged to hold onto them as the company tries to re-invent itself. The social media giant has been scrambling to find a new motherlode of revenues to insure against the day when privacy zealots will rightfully bludgeon them into submission. Perhaps even more threatening is the hardly remote possibility that subscribers will one day desert the platform because it has become uncool. Zuckerberg's initial feint several months ago was toward facilitating small-group interactions and encrypted messaging for a fee. The jury is still out on that idea, although, as Facebook's stock chart would seem to attest (see above), investors have treated it as though it were a stroke of genius. Even if this new business model were to take root, which is hardly a given, it seems unlikely to generate the kind of profits Facebook has reaped from selling out subscribers six ways from Sunday. Libra's Drawbacks What to do? Zuckerberg's latest Huge Idea is Libra, a cryptocurrency that would be tied to a basket of global currencies to keep it stable. Even so, its value would still fluctuate from day to day, making it less useful perhaps than existing digital payment systems. Apple offers a popular one -- and so do, for that matter, Visa, Master Card et al. Who needs block-chain money when conventional payment systems are doing the job, especially in the small-transactions universe that Libra would target? Facebook says its initial foray into cryptos would be geared toward money transfers from the U.S. to elsewhere, but that is inviting hard scrutiny from the regulators who will decide whether Libra gets off the ground. There is also the trust factor. How would you regard money that, in a manner of speaking, had Zuckerberg's face on it rather than that

The so-called rABC trade shows excellent potential to turn a profit on otherwise dull days. This particular day was as dull as they come, with stocks in a dirge as the trading world’s lunatic fringe awaited an announcement from the Fed. Even so, there was enough price movement in the E-Mini S&Ps and some FAANGs that there was plenty to do. If this kind of trading seems too frenetic, keep in mind that you can cash out $50-$400 winners all day long provided you’re quick enough to get in and out of the many set-ups that materialize. Moreover, the same tactics that apply in lesser time frames can easily be applied to bigger patterns that don’t require lightning-fast execution skills.

One of the ironies of Wall Street's obsession with the Fed's crackpot policies is that fevered short-squeeze rallies such as the one launched on June 4 weaken the rationale for monetary easing.  Stocks went bonkers after the central bank started dropping hints that economic fallout from the tariff war might warrant a fresh infusion of funny money. Of course, it wasn't the tariff war that concerned the Fed, but rather the stock market's scary reaction in May when trade talks seemed to break down beyond remedy. Although the banksters pretend to use sophisticated tools to shape monetary policy, their mathematical models have demonstrated time and again that they are about as useful for predicting economic trends as toad entrails. So what is the Fed to do if the stock market swings violently with each teensy policy tweak, and does so in a way that works opposite Fed meddling? Given the brash incautiousness of the current rally, we might expect the FOMC to pull back on the reins when it releases a statement after Wednesday's meeting. Something just a smidgen hawkish, but cryptic enough not to douse the flames entirely. That would be risky, since bulls might be needed in a few weeks if the trade wars take an unexpectedly ugly turn. Frullips & Frutneys It's a very delicate balance, but so far we've been lucky that the economy has not tipped into recession-or-worse. The Open Market Committee makes it up as they go along -- an epic game of 43-Man Squamish, replete with Pritzes, baggish smashers, a head coxswain, frullips, frutneys and a probate judge. Side bets aggregate into the hundreds of trillions of dollars.  One of these days, we are fated to discover that even though QE money and the rules that govern it are fake, the resulting debt